Bob Chill

Any strong cutter with the correct track will pass through the 50/50 region. It's a climo thing. 50/50s happen all the time but are usually transient meaning they are just passing by the sweet spot. When timing is linked up with something upstream, a 50/50 goes from completely unnoticed to the most important thing in Ji's life. We don't just need 50/50s. We need them linked up with other stuff. So basically, in a progressive pattern, you need 2 swift moving targets to be in the proper place at the same time. Tall order and often why they don't work. It's not bad luck. It's statistical probability. Blocking will lock at 50/50 in place. We still need 2 things to link up but only one is moving in that scenario. Far better odds and why we drool over that stuff

Pretty good broad look analysis identifying a common problem and why it's a problem. Anytime shortwaves are zipping north of us, there is a period of return flow sucking warm mid level air up from the south. Even with insitu cold underneath and overhead, it's an efficient airmass rotter and not something to ever be ignored at our latitude. North of us can get plenty of snow with return flow stuff. We usually get rain. Eta: Models can't resolve this stuff far in advance though. There have been countless times in the past where those NS vorts magically appear and disappear in the mid range. With a NS dominant pattern you always need to be looking at those when it counts

One thing we've fought consistently ever since things got going in early Jan is extremely small areas good lift and qpf. It's all little frontogen, jet streaks, or upglide stuff in very small target zones. Drilling down 2+ days in advance is just an exercise in watching noise and letting your brain fill in trends and blanks when there may not be any. I'm done tracking 50mi wide swaths until nowcast time. ROI sucks otherwise. Lol

I'm with CAPE's thoughts. The front sets up a nice wedge of cold surface and mid level air for a very basic isentropic upglide snow maker. This is the escape hatch and possibly the main show. This type of snow event does not rely heavily on synoptics from the coastal. This is where my eyes are until guidance locks into the low prob unblocked coastal runner.

Well, I've never seen either of you make an optimistic post about anything really. It's all doom and gloom. Or at least some sort of pessimistic connotation. I'm sure there are inspirational nuggets randomly hidden in the mix but you can't hide from a post history. When 90% are negative and pessimistic about everything, I'll call a spade a spade. Some people are glass half full and some are half empty. Me personally, I'm a 3/4 full kind of person about everything I do. Perception is reality. We all choose our own

Yeah, but not a single person here is surprised at your complete lack of optimism 24/7/365. Somebody has to make up for all that bad energy or it really will never snow again

I've never owned any thermo that remains accurate in direct sun. Even the ones that swear they do. I don't think they accountanted for increasing climate change sun angle in their design

We could have a 50" storm and PDI will still be #1 for me. When I hit the garage door opener shortly after sunrise, my life changed forever. I had never seen such a spectacle and I immediately became addicted to big storms. The desire to experience them only grew stronger during the decades following. For me, PDI truly was a life changing event. In a good or bad way is hotly debatable

Flush hits require more than what has been offered so on the balance, we're actually doing pretty good. Better than most similar years. Northern stream winters are always frustrating and always leave you feeling that it should have been MUCH better... if just "fill in blank" worked out. I look at it a little different. Any all snow event is a win. Any snowfall over 4-5" is a big win. We could repeat this same exact pattern every winter for 10 years and 1 or 2 will be really big, most avg at best but kinda lame, and some making you want to gently nudge little bunnies off your lawn. Problem is, there's no way to predict any of that in advance. You just gotta roll with the punches and see what sticks. Any time there's amplified flow with the right trajectory and/or axis, a big storm is possible. Not predictable at long leads. Not obvious with the longwave features. But still happen. That chance has been on the table and is still on the table for as far as you can see. But never lose sight of the fact that most if not all chances will be janky and not classic.

Whenever we sit in progressive NS flow (often AF lol), you have to mentally approach it with an open mind to what "can pop up at any moment". Just because nothing is there for a couple days on ops isn't a reason to close the blinds. 40 degree 850 temps and no cold north? Yea, slam that f'r shut. Revolving door of cold fronts where each pack enough cold mid level air on the heels to keep us in the game? That's like our default state in a non-shutout pattern. Lol

Gfs does a really good job sometimes. I really like the recent upgrade for winter wx. One of the common errors is speed of fronts and how south or east they get d2-4. But that's easy to work with. When it's the eastest, move a little westest and you prob nail it.

Ever since the turn if the year, practically every event (real or digital) has been sneaky and jacked up. That's not changing unless the NAO decides it's time. It's def disappointing seeing ops dry paint but unless there's a big storm patten (haven't seen one this year really), any event in the next 10 days is going to be sneaky and weird. Just keep our column supportive of snow as much as possible and let the chips fall. That's what I see. No discrete window or shortwave.

You know this stuff backwards and forwards but Ive been seeing a trend towards putting a single piece of guidance too far above everything else just because. I don't like it at all. It kills good discussion. Using recent past performance of ops to definitively judge future performance is almost always a mistake. This game has never worked that way except when the euro dominated the mid range accuracy. Those days are long over. All ops are good and bad at different things. Since the atmosphere is nearly infinitely complex, it's impossible to know exactly what causes an op to stand out on a specific setup. It is always best to use all available guidance then use your brain to finish the job. Model hugging is an exercise in getting egg on your face. Don't believe me? Just ask DT.

You got some STIFF competition my friend

The only way to get to the bottom of this is to start a thread at the beginning of each month to discuss how/when we are going to start monthly wx threads.

This one has a pretty clear setup for the NW to overperform and burbs to not be disrupted at all except for wet roads. A few small shifts away from impact closer in but few if any ice events like this have amounted to much and this spans many years. Eta: there was def a path to a disruptive event up and down 95. I'm just not seeing it anymore. If everything lined up, it would be pretty apparent. Not chasing a "maybe" under 3 days out.

@WxUSAFI'm cautious af entertaining the bowl idea but I think it's finally going happen. We kept seeing it pop on ens but ops on fantasy land never really agreed. By the time the "carve" was supposed to happen it was a week away. This has been happening for at least 7-10 days on guidance from my rip and reads. Now we're seeing fantasy gfs constantly dropping the height hammer. If there's a big storm in our future, my guess is it won't happen until the big carve reaches its apex and starts retreating. An event like the Midwest is seeing this week would be the way. Pajamas backwards and stuff

Waaaay too much focus on black and white euro vs gfs. They're both right and wrong and they are both shifting. Don't pit them against each other. Use them both to figure out what's in between.

Op is much more reliable than the gefs Problem is they aren't really connected anymore. Same init data but different maths and stuff from there. You can use op/ens comparison. Each has to be looked at in isolation.

Feb is such a great month. Sun is lighting up the deep south and baronclinic zone so little storms can hold big precip. The entire pattern coming up has plenty of juice to work with. No doubt there. Good times.

We all know there are somewhere between most and everyone here that have already decided its legit.

So the surface looks pretty straightforward for the follow up storm right? Then you look here and hit the brakes on everything. When vort panels look like they got hit with buckshot, the future is very very uncertain.

Laurel ice weenies are no doubt rooting for another 3 hundredths

My weenie hopium just flipped the the gfs losing the mid level warm air vacuum low near the lakes for the follow up wave. Still return flow but no turbocharger