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Bob Chill

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Everything posted by Bob Chill

  1. Bob Chill
    If we can pull off a nice draping alignment over top from the front then it's not cold chasing precip... it's precip running into cold. We've had quite a few events like this. The biggest (obvious) challenge is can the front progress fast enough... idk tho, fronts seems to drag behind guidance in this progressive pattern.
  2. Bob Chill
    Doesn't have to be that complicated. Euro lags because the weak slp wave running it. Are we sure that's the correct timing? What if things get strung out an the final wave lags? Front progression or lack thereof when it counts has something to do with a small synoptic feature timing. I can't count the # of times we "thought" we knew how a boundary setup is going to work in the mid range only to get surprised in the short range (72 hours or less)
  3. Bob Chill
    Exactly where we want it. Either that or in the trash. One or the other
  4. Bob Chill
    Best ice events are almost always on the front side of deep cold. More typical is on the retreat. That stuff fizzles from an impact standpoint. Accreting ice when temps and dews are dropping is the way. We don't see it too often but it def happens and when it does it looks like the gfs
  5. Bob Chill
    Gfs has had 4 straight runs and 12z was a very noticeable move. I thought the other guidance was still waffling around and no making progress towards winter wx. I could be waaay wrong. Haven't looked close enough.
  6. Bob Chill
    That little weak low running the gauntlet is a bit too quick and blocks the mids from pressing when we need it. Delay that wave by just 6-12 hours and the front has a much better chance to drape far enough south. The extra synoptic push on the front happens too early. Can't lose sight of the fact that the gfs is kind alone with this trend right now tho...
  7. Bob Chill
    One of the best visuals illustrating how arctic fronts can sometimes work here. Trajectory has really changed into something workable in a few runs. This is right out of the 2013-15 playbook. WAR backs off leading in and the cold dense air forces its way south. Starting off in a bad place with limited time but the door to success is still open.
  8. Bob Chill
    Not quite a foot of ice but an inch would work for some free entertainment
  9. Bob Chill
    Just a weenie but there's a bread and butter way here. Right now the drape is getting sweet but vertically, the cold literally has too much angle. Coldest air at the surface then lags as you go up. There is no reason right now to think its impossible to get the mids to cooperate. Gfs looks close enough for 3-4 days. No room to go backwards tho.
  10. Bob Chill
    Red Boars is better. Wild pigs are mean AF. Hogs? Fat, happy, lazy, and pretty boring to watch. Hmm... hogs making more sense now....
  11. Bob Chill
    Hard to envision enough time as is to get the mass of cold down far enough to do anything with precip mass. However, bend that front and stretch things a little and it could break down into 2 waves. Rain, drape, snow. Need that drape tho. Maybe 12z keeps going
  12. Bob Chill
    Haven't looked close so this could be bad analysis but it looked like both models are keying on a height press/hp pushing down on the top of the front. Wish it didn't have to move so far to make it interesting but cold air pressing downwards is a helluva lot better than pushing from the side
  13. Bob Chill
    Personally, I think its a mistake to ignore how the front evolves in hopes of something more promising in the mid/long range. Thing is, the way that front orients itself and moves determines the "next" event. At the same time part of the front is starting to get that "draped" look instead of a giant hill. That can work here. Sure, not much time blah blah but it's one of our ways and you can't write it off until it's figured out universally
  14. Bob Chill
    Imho... the A list names are embarrassingly horrible. So much so I might be done here with the team. Can't stand Snyder. Can't stand watching a revolving door and black cloud of losing. If I can't stand the name, I think I got forced out without a choice... Eta: my 2 personal faves are Warriors (stoopid Golden state lol) or Pilots. I really like Pilots. Then get a gun slinger QB and go straight to the SB. Eta2: if they were the Pilots they could put an F18 or Stealth on the helmets... did I just drop a mic or something? Eta3: what about the Aviators? That's bad ass too. But nope, Rear Admirals it is. Fitting I suppose
  15. Bob Chill
    Idk man, it's like the Football Team... you keep trying different things and different people and on and on but nothing is going to change until ownership does. I swear there's some quantum mechanics force that surrounds shitbag or just bad owners that continuously causes any and all efforts to turn around to fail. It's the universe telling them to go but they won't listen
  16. Bob Chill
    I'm starting to think he's actually an algorithm troll bot. Never breaks character and his schtick is tired, stale, and ineffective. Exactly as you expect from old troll bots all over the webs in need of an update
  17. Bob Chill
    I don't know why people think Ohio is such a bad place to live... wait a minute... hmm, scratch that. Was thinking of somewhere else. Carry on.
  18. Bob Chill
    The 70s pre-PDI weren't all that great here. Had some really big cold outbreaks but some real stinkers too. Couldn't buy a sledding storm for painfully long stretches (sound familiar lol). Late 70s came and change my life but then the early 80s came... rinse repeat. I can count far more winter adventures as a kid with 1-2" of snow or maybe sleet ice and slush than big dumps and weeks of snow packs. 2" of snow was at least a 2 hour delay and sleddable. I loved them then and love them now. Being picky here is bad math. ROI drops below reasons to participate.
  19. Bob Chill
    Other than strong ninas, I don't mind cold enso. Not my fave but most weak/mods pull off at least one compressed stretch of cold with chances. Some can be busy. I like having a cold Canada. Seems to be becoming more important as the years go by. 09-10 killed off part of this hobby unfortunately. Recency + the absurd nature of the storms makes everyone want a repeat. Big storm or bust attitude ever since. Nobody seems to really like our typical/avg events anymore. It gets treated like a consolation prize or criticized to death. I enjoy small events. We used to have fun with, take pics of, and celebrate car toppers here. Those days seem like another lifetime ago now.
  20. Bob Chill
    What's the deal with the genie in a bottle? Or did you guys take someone hostage and jam them in there? Is that the owner or the cabin keeping an eye on you? Chit is freaking me out man....
  21. Bob Chill
    Seems like every time the tpv or arctic front is prog'd in the mid/long range to push ESE, the actual progression is due south then slow crawl east. Always steepens the hill too much to get a good vector for snowfall. Cold angle is no doubt a real thing
  22. Bob Chill
    4 events over an inch in January is nothing to scoff at. I mean sure, all but one didn't have the oomph to push warning snowfall most places but still, 4 productive events with little blocking and fast flow? Make no mistake, that is a gift of overpefromance. You have to be able to recognize that for what it really is. Treat them all in isolation too. Every setup so far has been quirky and not repetitive other than smallish northern stream personality. That looks to continue. Keep 'em coming. Rain, whiff, mix, or shellack... doesn't matter. Fast northern stream flow is always a numbers game. ALWAYS. Until there is an actual reason other than dumb luck, it's best to stay away from big storm thoughts. In this case, big would be over 6"
  23. Bob Chill
    In my head I use angle degrees but good lord that's a tough way to describe a visual. The clock way of looking at it just popped into my head. I like it too!! Except nobody owns analog clocks anymore
  24. Bob Chill
    We don't have a handle on anything behind the front because the front itself has plenty of divergence. We'll get an 8 month break pretty quick here too.. This is winters 7th inning stretch with active shortwaves and cold Canada. Taking a break now goes against weenie dna
  25. Bob Chill
    Alignment of the entire frontal progression doesn't work here basically ever as the gfs shows. Any front aligned steeper than 8am - 2pm on a clock is cold chasing precip. Our window starts at 8am - 2pm angle without a kink in the flow. 8:30am to 2:30pm angle is where warning events start. It's a simple way to look at it but you won't find too many odds beaters inside of that rule of thumb Eta: developing your own rules of thumb goes a long ways towards developing your own thoughts different than what mid range models show. I mean sure, there could be vigorous wave run a steep boundary and snow. But if the models showed that 5 days out with a steep frontal boundary, it's time to strongly doubt model output. Just one tiny example of unlimited ways to develop your own skills beyond model TV
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