Bob Chill

The reliable ones all did well. Mesos did well too. Imo- euro was the most consistent inside of 72 hours and verified well. Others were more jumpy. Right now we're haggling over a tenth of an inch of qpf so subtle changes feel bigger than they really are.

Correlation is down at .74 so not great matches but still a weird D11+ set. Top analogs all have snow events centered. Some are rain first then snow a few days later. Looking at the height pattern I would not have guessed those results. Maybe a poor sample or maybe a sign the pattern can ramp quick once we get thru next week

Most of the precip is the NS trailer and upper level driven. And it's light event so whether we get 1-3 (likely) or 3-6 (max boom imho) will depend on how juicy the northern stream is. We'll, assuming it doesn't skip north but I doubt that happens lol. Models don't generally don't dial in with qpf until its already forming to our west. Today's runs are boring and the most probable outcome. But things could easily juice back up at short leads. I won't write off a boom until 0z tomorrow runs

The primary differences between the current d15 ens means and Feb 2003 are the scandi ridge blocking 50/50s from running away and the SW conus had an open door for shortwaves. No guidance is showing a scandi ridge but we don't need that anyways. Just a modest-ao or nao can do the same thing. Plenty of hints that may happen. While the pattern as shown could start out dry, I don't think that will last. My guess is the first carve end of month hits us flush with cooler air but the trough will carve/broaden in succession as the +PNA shifts and backs off. Just a guess. We'll see

Looks like a weak clipper and/or collision pattern for us. The linked pna/epo ridge will shut off the northern stream. They'll still exist but NS shortwaves will originate over the ice cap lol. I don't think it will be a dry pattern in the deep south/east coast. Split flow off the CA coast will let stuff undercut the ridges in the west. No real blocking so storm track can end up anywhere but with cold air cycling down on a SE trajectory over the lakes, an undercutter can easily collide with this. Best analog I can think of is Feb 2003 lol

From what I see, temps will keep us shut out for about a week. Then back to favorable temps by Feb 1st. Maybe a day or 2 before. But that's just temps. How quick something breaks right is just wild guessing for now. If we're on a true back half heater, we may not have to wait long.

@Ji JMA joined the party. Looks just like the euro at H5. Every global agrees on a favorable pass now.

Pre-dawn Friday as it stands now.

A lot going for this to max out here. Euro has a weak surface low centered in SWVA. Causes surface and mid level winds to veer NE when it matters. This is near perfect for us. If slp were to be stronger and take the same track, 3-6" would come easy imho

WWA for the corridor is a lock imho. Models are dialed in. WSW has entered the chat after the euro run. That was a nice vort pass combined with a real nice column. We're on a heater

If you don't start a thread I will

Incremental step towards max potential imo. These NS deals are tricky with qpf leading in. Based on h5/h85 it looked good for us.

We're 72 hours out and all reliable and unreliable models show some amount of snowfall. Maybe the storm will feel underappreciated and move to SNE because you DIDN'T start a thread

Just do it. It's unlikely to evaporate. Nobody is expecting a big hit except Ji. We can prob be civil running up to 3" and back to 1" every 6 hours lol

Nice column for Friday. No worries with SW mid-level flow as the (weak) low approaches. WAA snow along warm fronts with NS shortwaves is typically low ratio. Kinda globular lol. Maybe not this time. 10:1+ seems likely to me.

Train tracks are real. How and why and where they set up is beyond my abilities but they certainly happen all over the place. I never ignore my gut. I bust big like anyone but on the balance, my gut knows more than my conscious brain and I never ignore it. I'm feelin good for some snow on snow Friday.

We are a really streaky area for whatever reason. Long droughts followed by multiple condensed events is far more common than smooth evenly spaced winters. Prob magical thinking but imho, getting a nice event last night is a sign that Fri will work out "ok". My expectations are it will never look worse than 1-3 in general leading in and even though boom ingredients are largely absent, maybe it finds a way anyway just cuz.

Me thinks it gon b a lottle crunchy tomorrow morning.

The upper level feature isn't a phantom. It's on all guidance in about the same place. The tricky part from what I see is the 850 low pass. For example, 6z euro has a decent vort pass: But the 850 low runs overhead. Boom scenario will likely be north of that. But for right now it's an overhead pass so much of our area isn't in the vigorous zone. 850 circ is parked right in the WV panhandle. Run that over EZF and we can get a little more excited. Right now, gun to head, 1-3" with some modest upside.

3-4 looks like max boom from what I'm seeing. Not sure there's enuff wiggle room for anything bigger. Good thing about the event is it will be instability driven moreso that lift/upglide. High ratio snow globe potential could bubble up as the upper level stuff moves overhead. If 12z globals all put down an inch or 2 today, we can prob bank on some amount of accum snow

Gonna go with 4.7". This was a pure old school TN valley swiper. These types of storms make up the balance of "good memories" during the 70s and 80s. Cold 2-4/3-5 events were something we could count on a few times in any average or good winter. I hope everyone enjoyed it as much as me. Even though it was a "smallish" event, it was a special one for multiple reasons.

They didn't take the advanced measurement and stat pad course in college.

Serious deathband. Over 6" already

Gettin deathband'd. Leveled up from light snow. 3" by 9pm? Stay tuned!

Doin pretty well. 2.2-2.3". Had the dog out in woods for an hour. No flashlight needed. Love that when it snows near cities. Side roads were terrible. Insurance companies will have busy signals tomorrow lol