Bob Chill

I've been disconnecting from all kinds of weird attachments or "hobbies lol" over the last 18 months. Barely touch my big PC, spend as little time online as possible, work hard as heck outside, and just live in the moment most days. I cannot describe in words how much this has helped me achieve new goals and have no fear starting anything new. My anxiety about anything is minimal nowadays but man it took a lot of work to break free. My LR analysis is just a super quick scan of ens h5 means and how they are trending. That's it. If a storm is gonna hit... it's gonna hit.... and we certaintly wont know it 7+ days out lol. Worrying about things i can't control was the root of my discomfort in life. Eliminating that is a choice. Not easy to execute and not quick to do buy worth its weight in platinum for me. It's making this hobby fun again for the first time in a long time lol. I'm settled in MD thru Jan 7th at least. Intuition says modest snowstorm on the way. Gotta see what happens with the big Midwest wobbler next week. Maybe it parks itself or builds lower heights in the 50/50 zone...

Yep. If you go back and look at the majority of our colder/all snow events (not just big ones), there is typically some form of confluence (or compressed heights running laterally) overhead or to the north. The compression in the upper levels causes of a number of positive ingredients for MA snowfall. Most importantly, it fights off southerly flow in the mids. Confluence causes surface hp to form below it due to air smashing into itself lol. Surface HP keeps mid level flow more northerly. So you have the beautiful combo of warm/moist air streaming in from the SW in the upper levels and colder northerly flow in the mids/surface leading in. Upper level stream hits a wall and turns right due to confluence. That creates extra lift and precipitation. It also often creates a sharp cutoff somewhere. Usually around or just north of Philly. These setups are our favorites but not everyone's lol. ETA: wanted to clarify cutoff and storm track disco. Any big storm can punch a hole in just about any block depending on details. Any big storm can draw in enough Atlantic air to cause precipitation problems. But more typical stuff can get bullied pretty easily. If active flow undercuts the potential dome of upper level HP in Canada like guidance is suggesting.... we can snow a lot of different ways and not rely on needles and threads and stuff. Big storms have always and will always be nailbiters. We aren't new England no matter how big the block is unless 2010 walks in the door again lol.

Classic TN valley overrunner setup lol. Textbook

When all guidance starts showing compressed heights in the east oriented WSW-ENE.... I get stoked... I'm pretty stoked These are the upper level height patterns that can produce snow with just about any wave. Not just a perfectly timed one or second in line or whatever. I know u know this up and down. Just adding to the disco

This. Just this. It's Dec and it hasn't been cold anywhere. Snow cover to our north and west is abysmal. Keep neg and neutral tilt talk north of 40. Prob 42 lol

I'm heading back to MD on Wed for a couple weeks. Maybe longer if real winter sets in. Been working non stop since Labor day down here. It's going to be quite the adjustment going back to the rat race this time. I've been in MD just 5 days in 3 months lol. I love it down in VA so much now, Rockville will never feel good to me anymore.... unless there is a foot of snow or ice to enjoy. As far as I can tell, it's probably on for a few weeks or more if we can keep flow/shortwaves sliding south of our area for more than a 1 off event. Train tracks comes to mind when I look at extended ens. We'll see how it goes when better stuff gets closer in time.

I always bring this up.... our area averages about 10" of precip during met winter. Climo snow is about a 5th of that. We get a lot of rain every winter in every month. Period. It's that simple and it shouldn't be such a sticking point every year. Our winter wx comes in runs so winter experience can be compressed into 2 week or whatever memories of deep winter and all the rain is forgotten in the rear view. But not in real time. Lol

Pretty interested in the extended for the first time since Thanksgiving. Imo only- it's a decent storm look but not a big one. A big wrapped up storm would prob end up too warm or carry elevated risk of being warm. Something moving more laterally to our south should have no problem having some ok air to work with. Don't think we can survive big SE flow in advance of anything yet until North America and the Atlantic cool down some more. Modest storm with northerly flow start to finish could produce something we haven't seen in a long time lol.... you know... one of those 4-8" snows that don't leave too many people out lol. Wut?!? Just throwin down some random thoughts. Nothing serious or well researched

Thing is, banter in disco thread is totally fine... at certain times that are easy to identify. But that's not how it's been working. When there's a lull, yuk it up. It's fun. When it's crowded with lurkers and disco posters, just shut the heck up man. Critical thinking is a lost art or... people purposefully choose "poor timing" for maximum (emotional) effect. Imho- that's bad faith, period. Not "oopsie sorry". Just bad behavior with a broken moral compass. That drove me out of here specifically. Started getting rises out of me. My post history shows my transition in real time. One day i scanned my post history and was very disappointed in the way my behavior was changing so I had to call it quits being a regular.

Been a busy fall for me. Been running heavy equipment with a buddy doing grading, clearing, private road installs etc. If anyone is interested in before and afters, my buddy has a good Facebook biz page (Fisher Construction and Excavation in Amherst VA). I worked every job since Labor Day. I love this more than anything I've done. Offices may as well be on Mars cuz I'm NEVER doing that again. I'll go bankrupt first because money is never more important than sanity hahahaha I have tons of fall pics but they are a jumbled mess. Lol. Put a couple collages together. Smith Mtn gets hit by sunrise b4 my property. Lights it up the entire mountain while I'm in total shade. Happens every day and steals my heart every time. I mill a lot of wood in my spare time and it's a blast. I'm getting a bandsaw mill in 2 weeks. 30" log diameter and 18' track but I'm always going run a chainsaw mill. Drag into the woods and start making lumber. Hard to describe the experience and what it means to me. Few can relate so I generally quietly mill and don't talk about it. Second collage is a white oak I dropped and milled 2 weeks ago. Just about ready for edging and planing. Using the oak for shed floor and doors.

DM stormtracker and tell him to give me the ctrl-alt-del button on my mini mod panel. 10 seconds and it's all fixed! Lol Jokes aside, human emotional control (of lack thereof) and how it transforms quality discussion into a trench fight has me turned off probably permamently. Some of it is 100% deliberate and some of it is the oil/water nature of group interactions when there is no personal recourse or consequences (other than a ban but that does nothing to fix the global problem way beyond AMWX). I behave identical online and in person. What you see is what you get. There is a core crew here I love who are aligned but things have changed and my tank filled up nearly 2 years ago. It just wasn't fun anymore. It became tiresome. People have become extremely centric and inflexible online in general. My way or highway! Lol. Add in bro-science, conspiracies, ànd persuasive morons leading sheep and it gets REALLY hard to have quality interactions that include facts and other people's points of view. Rational discussion, willingness to seriously consider another's views, and ability to concede or compromise is just about gone from social media. People have much more fun interacting with emotions and drama. For many, its the only reason to engage. Emotional control is something I hold in high standards. If you want to gain knowledge and explore ideas and concepts properly, you need to listen to everything and contemplate. Not knee jerk spew garbage cuz you don't agree or your feelings are dented. Unfortunately there is no fix because the majority doesn't want to "fix things". They like stirring and prodding and poking for entertainment. I can't do that anymore.

238 miles to Rockville. Got a full tank of diesel, half pack of blunts, and wearing visine at night. See ya in 3 hours

It can be easier to visualize by looking at surface pressure. Sprawling HP to the north and west. Forces low pressure to move more lateral than north https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2023112518/gfs_mslpa_us_58.png

Honestly, I've been hoping it holds off. Been down in VA working with a buddy having a blast since labor day. Outdoor work though... heh. Developing upper air pattern looks pretty classic for early season snow but we usually cap out at 3-5" type storms front half of Dec and they are nailbiters usually. We'll see in a week. I like my spot near smith mtn. Upslope is real. Smith rises 1300' above my property and it's a very steep mountain. Less than 2 miles away. NE and E flow rain is nasty here compared to 10 miles away. If things line up, I think I'll get mini jacked. Been curious for 16 months cuz last winter was an epic snow fail lol

No matter how long of a break you take from here, nothing changes. Not.one.thing.

DCA: 11/11 IAD: 10/25 BWI: 10/26 RIC: 10/31 BWI Oct -1.1

Painted the wheels on the ole Massey. Pretty close to done with the restoration except for mechanical wear parts that haven't failed yet. Diesel motor should be good for another 3k hours b4 rebuild is needed. Everything works including power steering lol. Massey Ferguson purists will hate the paint job but I'm not a purist and it looks cool to me

Well... I was doing a really slow uturn in a driveway down the road and there was a nice gate that was open. No problem except I bumped the steel gate by the lower hinge on the post and it ripped out like tinfoil. Lol. I mean I barely felt it. Hahaha Eta: it was no hit and run either. Folks were standing there complimenting my tractor. Yea... it wasn't too fun

Lol. It was a major upgrade from the previous... ummm...unwalled hole in ground. Zero to hero. I was called the "#1 of #2s" during the inaugural weekend. I was going to buy newer/smaller tractor but the emissions and electronics are a nightmare. Smartest thing I've done since randomly buying 25 acres of forest is buying that Massey tractor. Spent its whole life running hay bales around just 30 miles from where it's parked. Well cared for. Cost me 5 grand... newer tractors anywhere close to that power is 25k or more lol. I'll be under 9k all in for full mechanical restore and a machine that will rarely stop for any reason for 50 years. It weighs more than a honda accord. Don't bump into ANYTHING no matter how slow ur goin..... don't ask....

Hey wx fam! Been a nutty year for me. Been wantin to update longtime wx geek friends but time keeps slippin.... until today I spend 75% of my time in sw VA now lol Became good friends with the contractor who did the initial clearing on our tract of land. We started working together and it clicked immediately. I've had more fun running heavy equipment in the last 4 months than I did my entire 20+ office career lol. Wife and I are aiming to sell Rockville in mid spring and we're building everything in VA ourselves. Buddy I'm working with has his homebuilders license so we're going to do it together. Have plans now but need a VA architect for mods and final. PM me if anyone knows a fair one. And by fair I mean it's a simple plan with simple mods. Don't be thinking new BMW cuz I already talked to you and laughed behind your back hahaha I've done so much chainsaw milling in my free time I'm ready for a bandsaw mill with 20' of track. I'm allowed to mill my own hardwood beams for construction framing. So cool. Can't wait. House will be framed with the red oaks i haveto clear for the home site. I built an outhouse entirely with a chainsaw mill and basic tools in my spare time lol. Dropped every tree and turned it into a building. Lol. Never in a zillion years would i have guessed this path 5 years ago. I've been slowly restoring the 1967 Massey Ferguson diesel tractor I bought last winter. That thing is bombproof. Runs perfect and I beat on it all the time. Chipping, hauling, grading, and dragging stuff is a typical week. Never complains. I'll be done painting the wheels within 2 weeks. Everything works like it did out of the factory. Prob another 50 years of hard service ahead. What a trip lol

Getting warm after huge storms is pretty normal. Especially with Archambault events. Our biggies favor the flip from neg to pos NAO. Hard to stay cold on the heels.

I've been rippin and readin a little lately but have no thoughts other than climo enso stuff so lurking only. Since 2015, it seems remarkably hard to NOT get heavily modified continental air in here. Models keep showing the express 7+ days out but the carve slows down and by the time the cold pool gets here, it's west or even sw flow in the mids or uppers. I can't even count how many times really. We all know how well stale air works here with a synoptic system lol. Imo- it's just a cycle. We see it all the time. Train tracks set up and don't want to leave no matter what the euro says hahaha. Imho- much of our winter's snow fate will depend on things nobody can see beyond a week. Digital cold air does not make it snow. We need a fresh feed at the start of synoptic development. Elusive as hell last few years... always sloppy stale mixed messes with no feed when it matters. Iirc, vast majority of "rain when it should snow" lately is likely a byproduct of slow moving stale air patterns with blocking. The brunt of the cold keeps focusing on the MW and hanging around. The MA can't survive like that. We need a banana. Especially in a Nino. When those show up during snow season, so will I. I'm done trackin mix lines other than real time.

Man, I found pics of the first cut back in July. Trees getting shredded by a machine must be watched live to appreciate. Top 2 pics are hard to recognize but it is the same place as the gravel pics. Lol. We ran a trackloader for 6 days straight after the mulchers finished. It was in the 90s every.single.day. We chose mulching over excavating because it creates a mountain of composting biomass out of the gate. Excavators just knock everything down and move it to the side. Which is totally fine but we plan of having large gardens and a 3 acre pasture to attract wildlife. The mulch is nearly soil now and man we have A LOT lol