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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    18z FV3GFS (per mageval.ncep.noaa.gov) took a bit of a step back. 0.5" liquid line stays well south in VA, with the DC area on the northern edge.
  2. high risk
    Ummm, Sunday looks dry and overall a pretty nice day.
  3. high risk
    00z GFS taking a big step towards the idea of at least a close call on Tuesday
  4. high risk
    ha! There is no way (in terms of manpower and computer resources) to do the complete set of retrospective testing and evaluation that needs to be done (much of the past 3 years were rerun with the FV3GFS and assessed as part of the validation) for both the GFS and GEFS systems concurrently.
  5. high risk
    correct. There will be no change to the GEFS when the FV3GFS replaces the GFS in operations.
  6. high risk
    Yes, but it will not be concurrent with the switch of the GFS to the FV3 core. The GEFS upgrade to FV3 is still over a year away.
  7. high risk
    This event is our reminder to always toss GFS thermal profiles in cold air damming situations.
  8. high risk
    It's worth noting that the HRRR has rain at the start and then transitioning quickly to sleet and then snow, with a heavier burst of snow around 10AM. NAM nest is similar, with an initial period of rain and sleet, followed by some heavier snow, also around 10AM.
  9. high risk
    18z 12km NAM still has the 2m freezing line running right through the District at noon Thursday.
  10. high risk
    The precip type is computed off of the thermodynamic profiles; the water equivalent of snow (+sleet) is from the model microphysics. That's how that can differ. And this is clearly a case when the 10:1 ratios won't come close to working.
  11. high risk
    I really have a hard time accepting the GFS having most of the DC and Baltimore metro areas in the mid 30s tomorrow at 12z. I think we've seen plenty of winter precipitation cases in which the GFS has failed to properly model evaporative cooling and then eroded low-level cold air too quickly. While the NAMs can hold on to low-level cold air a little too long, their track record in this kind of setup is superior. I'm not calling for an OMG snow here in the I-95 corridor, but a few hours of snow and then sleet (and perhaps a longer period for the next tier of counties north and west) is still very much on the table, IMO.
  12. high risk
    Significant ice storm near the cities? That's going to be extremely difficult to accomplish given the very warm antecedent ground/road temperatures.
  13. high risk
    The problem is that the hi-res guidance is now in good agreement that the line clears most of the area by midday, and there is limited opportunity for the atmosphere to destabilize in advance, especially from DC and points north. Chances are better for southern MD and points further east and south, where guidance shows either more warm advection ahead of the line or a later arrival of storms allowing more heating to occur. That said, shear in the local area will be strong, so if instability ends up larger than currently progged, we could certainly have a greater threat, including TORs.
  14. high risk
    reports of significant damage in Mt Airy. New tornado warning in southern MD.
  15. high risk
    MD issued by SPC. Watch possible as the strengthening line to the west approaches.
  16. high risk
    great question. The issue may not be the amount of total cape, but the distribution of it. I think in these low instability/high shear events, you can work with 500 or so, but there needs to be some instability just above the sfc. Tall, skinny cape usually doesn't get it done. That forecast sounding has lousy low-level lapse rates and likely would not get the job done, assuming it's correct. History says that these low instability/high shear events rarely work out here, but there are exceptions.
  17. high risk
    The sfc low is a going to take an extremely favorable track for the I-95 corridor. Wind profiles this evening will become as good as we can get around here, but the degree of instability is the big question.
  18. high risk
    marginal risk for areas just south of DC Friday. With the front now likely to be much slower to move through the area, there is the opportunity for low to mid 60s dew points to return. Shear will be strong - it's just a matter of how much instability can develop. It's very possible that much of the area ends up in MRGL (with a non-zero chance of SLGT) on Friday.
  19. high risk
    88/70 at BWI last hour.
  20. high risk
    storms struggling south of the Mason-Dixon line, but it's a wedgefest in northwest PA. Ok, that's going overboard, but there has been at least one confirmed large tornado up there, and new warnings have now been issued in the Willamsport area.
  21. high risk
    We'll have a few warm days this week and weekend in between frontal passages, but next week looks potentially HOT. The GEFS mean 850 mb temp anomalies are in the +7 range.
  22. high risk
    There seems to be fairly good agreement in a trough coming in from the Pacific merging with the tropical thing coming out of Baja, forming a healthy sfc low in the west next week, forcing a strong ridge over the east. The 500 pattern would support 90+ here, but perhaps the wet ground will keep us a little lower. Regardless, another stretch of hot days seems fairly likely.
  23. high risk
    The shear is actually pretty fantastic. We obviously can't get anything to the ground with the stable layer in place, but I can totally envision a few elevated cells spinning tonight.
  24. high risk
    definitely. forecast soundings show some elevated instability, so while I'm not sure if we'll get lightning, a convective element to the rain is likely. The simulated radar seems to show that.
  25. high risk
    and the NAM nest has been consistent for the past 8 cycles or so.....
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