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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    The low-level shear will be fantastic. It's just a question of whether the storms can become surface-based. Right now, it appears that they won't, but it's not impossible. Having the line arrive as late as possible, with no showers out ahead, to allow for heating in advance is the scenario that would make things extra interesting around here.
  2. high risk
    Interesting Sunday morning for sure. All guidance has some sort of squall line feature approaching DC Metro around mid-morning. The HRRR sweeps it through most of the region, but the 00z NAM nest basically rips it apart as it arrives. Even in the "worst case" HRRR scenario, it looks to be slightly elevated which would limit the wind damage threat, but it's close to being surface-based, so the MRGL risk is probably a fair call for now.
  3. high risk
    GGEM has made some improvements, but it's still behind the ECMWF and UKMET, although it's been closer to the GFS for medium range synoptic performance in recent weeks....
  4. high risk
    Ok, this is admittedly where it gets more complicated, and it's a good catch on your part. I have no idea why they do it this way, but SPC basically computes their own HREF. (Remember that the HREF is just taking existing hi-res models and computing means and probabilities.) They're including the HRRR, but the "official" HREF Version 2 (implemented October 2017) does not. Kinda wish that SPC didn't "go rogue" on this or at least identified it more clearly on their site, so I understand why you thought that the HRRR Is included. As for physics, a few physics components are shared amongst a lot of the models, but overall, none of the HREF members is overall close to being the GFS.
  5. high risk
    Sorry to be "that guy", but yeah, you're wrong. The SREF and HREF are independent systems. The SREF is 13 ARW and 13 NMMB runs, all at 16 km. The HREF is simply aggregating existing high-resolution (~3 km) model runs (NAM nest, and the Hi-Res Windows NMMB, ARW, and ARW2) into means and probabilities. The HRRR will be included in the HREF computations starting next summer.
  6. high risk
    Feeling a lot better about the chances of healthy rainfall totals on Wednesday after seeing the 00z NAM runs.
  7. high risk
    I love the GFS solution for the middle of next week in which the wave on the front passes too far southeast to give us rain but sufficiently kills convergence along the front in our area, leaving us in a giant precip hole. T
  8. high risk
    Gonna be a fascinating temperature forecast for Thursday for sure. It's pretty certain that Baltimore and points northeast will be cool, but I don't think it's as certain for DC metro. 12z NAM has low 90s in northern VA, with the gradient right along the Potomac. NAM nest has the gradient ever so slightly to the east.
  9. high risk
    CAPE is good, and shear is marginal, but the combo overall is ok-ish, so I understand the slight risk. But it sure would be nice to see some better signals in the hi-res guidance. Maybe they're missing the potential impact of the MCV moving east, but they're certainly overall uninspiring (except for the NSSL-WRF).
  10. high risk
    terrific question. While most of the CAMs had some cells erupting in IL before 00z, there was some consensus that the biggest contributor to an MCS approaching the Appalachians tomorrow morning would be storms that fired in central IL this evening. And that development (while not SVR so far) appears to be underway, so it may still be on track. That said, that morning MCS tomorrow could end up further south than expected, although I'd still be concerned about the cloud shield further north.
  11. high risk
    I'm definitely not ready to be in for this. I do understand the SPC optimism based on the shear and the arrival of a well-timed vort. But I don't like that multiple CAMs show an MCS coming out of OH later tonight and then falling apart as it approaches around midday tomorrow. To be fair, the models that have that scenario do develop another round of convection later in the day, and it could certainly be severe, but we usually run into instability problems in those events due to the cloud shield or, in the worst case scenario, sfc outflow. I still think we can score on either 1) the original midday/early afternoon line or 2) new development later in the day , but I need to see the later CAM solutions look more favorable.
  12. high risk
    not quite severe here in College Park but pretty damn close
  13. high risk
    It's the likelihood of rainfall exceeding FFG, and FFG over part of our ahead is 1-2" in a 3h period, so I would agree that there is a 20-50% (as defines the MDT risk) of that happening within 25 miles of a point in the MDT zone.
  14. high risk
    Slight risk today. The CAMs are not in much agreement concerning coverage, but they generally agree on a 4-7pm window. (HRRR wants to initiate locally around 3pm). Looks like better coverage in MD than VA. Shear is not great (it’s lousy on the HRRR), but with the instability, several CAMs show marginal shear for some wind threat.
  15. high risk
    CAMs have been very consistent that coverage would be limited. That said, the HRRR has shown for several consecutive cycles now that storms will affect DC and points south and east over the next few hours.
  16. high risk
    The HRRR has been saying for a while now that if you live more than a small distance north or west of I-95 in MD, you're pretty much done for today.
  17. high risk
    storm initiation has occurred, and an MD has been issued. Sounds like a blue box is coming soon, although we may be at the northern end.
  18. high risk
    the problem is defining the "we". There will definitely be some storms in the area this afternoon, and at least a few of them will produce SVR reports, but coverage in the CAMs isn't awesome. Maybe the CAMs are undoing the forcing, and coverage will end up much greater, but it right now looks like a chunk of this forum will end up disappointed.
  19. high risk
    I really, really want to be IN on this. Even with the potentially crappy lapse rates eating away at good instability, the wind profiles are impressive for mid June, as that's a nice trough approaching. But it's hard not to notice the fairly limited coverage of storms so far in this evening's NAM nest and HRRR runs.
  20. high risk
    Here is the midday 6/29/12 SPC outlook. Most of the DC area wasn't even in a SLGT at that time.
  21. high risk
    some of the guidance shows good lapse rates developing as the upper trough swings east, but others delay the mid-level cooling, leading to the crappy lapse rates that SPC mentioned in their initial day 2 outlook. The revised day 2 outlook, though, is very encouraging and while it's unclear if they're talking about the mid-Atlantic, they do mention supercell and attendant tornado threat in the east. As I mentioned earlier, the wind fields will definitely be strengthening later Thursday afternoon, so if we can get some local backing of low-level winds near boundaries, storm rotation is on the table.
  22. high risk
    Would love to see better lapse rates tomorrow for sure, but there are still a number of things to like. This is an anomalously strong June trough arriving at the right time of day. (We did really well with good dynamics on June 2). As a result, while the surface winds may be too weak or veered for widespread supercells, the overall wind profile is impressive, and the lift will be strong. Most CAMs show full heating tomorrow with temps approaching 90. There will be storms, and there is a good chance that at least some of them will be SVR. It's a SLGT day for sure, but in terms of what we need for ENH potential, the NAM nest mid-level temps are a bit cooler than the HRRR and would allow for more instability. And the best wind fields will overspread our area more towards 23z, so later initiation would be helpful - the low-level shear will really improve towards 00z if any storms are still around.
  23. high risk
    I see lots of giving up on today's storms, but the HRRR (and NAM nest) continue to blow up a lot of storms for the area over the next few hours as the forcing from the shortwave arrives, and boundaries become active.
  24. high risk
    guidance has the southern areas getting hit with the greatest coverage of storms. that has nothing to do with severe potential. any storms to the northeast will be in a better environment for svr; it's just the the best threat may be more towards PHL and NJ.
  25. high risk
    should be feeling the influence of that arriving shortwave over the next few hours, but as the MPD notes, the guidance really likes DC and points south (maybe we can say Rockville to Columbia and points south, based on HRRR trends?) for the most coverage. Maybe not looking so good for north-central MD.
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