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high risk

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by high risk

  1. pretty impressive rainfall rates here in southern Howard County
  2. The question seems to be whether any storms will fire during the day out ahead of the main forcing. Neither the cape nor shear are particularly crazy during the day, but the combination must just be sufficient for SVR if we get storms. Otherwise, the best chance of widespread storms is way late during the evening (as per the NAM3), but they might be slightly elevated with lesser threat of SVR. I am also keeping an eye on Wednesday, when the secondary cold front arrives during peak heating, with better lapse rates and deep layer shear in place.
  3. I thought about that, but that's clearly something that would mix out quickly during the heating of the morning hours.
  4. Can someone please tell me what LWX is doing the last two days? They keep talking about an inversion that will retard convection, but it simply doesn't exist in any of the forecast soundings, and the relative ease with which convection is developing again today (albeit scattered coverage) confirms it's not that tough to initiate convection in this environment. Forcing is weak, which is preventing widespread development, but the idea that we'd have a quiet day is again going to fail.
  5. Not a great showing by LWX today. They mentioned that there was a forecasted cap that would inhibit storm development, but I didn't see it on soundings I looked at this morning. The hi-res models all showed a few cells in the area this afternoon, and they nailed it.
  6. Yoda is spot on. The day shift has the ability to update the day 3 if they desire, and I remember seeing it at some point this year during the spring. I think that this was a good call today, and there is a reasonable chance that we'll wake up Tuesday morning in SLGT for day 2.
  7. high-res guidance seems to be coming into agreement on a batch of heavy showers and possible storms moving from south to north across the DC metro area Monday afternoon. While uncertainty remains with regards to exact locations, some areas are likely to cash in on good rainfall, given the high PW environment, assuming that the solutions are correct. The decent storm motions should hopefully prevent major flooding, at least for Monday.
  8. I commented in the other thread, but I think that the backing of the sfc winds isn't likely. The NAM nest only backs them along an outflow boundary from initial storms (so it would have to be completely nailing the evolution to be correct), and the HRRR doesn't back them at all. The NAM12 actually has widespread backed sfc winds, but it's an outlier. I guess I won't totally rule it out, but I'm not seeing this as tornado threat unless the NAM12 is correctly showing the widespread southeast sfc winds.
  9. The sounding from TT shows much weaker low-level winds, so the profile doesn't look as good. Regardless, that extreme backing of the winds in the sounding from Ian (via Yoda) is the result of the model having ongoing storms locally modify the low-level wind field, as opposed to an overall regional setup for tornadoes. I think that the threat for SVR tomorrow here is fairly good, but I don't think that tornadoes are a major concern.
  10. I think I'm IN for Friday. Latest NAM3 and HRRR show fairly widespread storms in the very late afternoon / early evening hours, especially along and north of I-66 in VA and Rt. 50 in MD. Forecast soundings show ~2500 j/kg of sfc-based cape with modest lapse rates. Low-level shear is weak, but deep layer shear appears to be sufficient for SVR, given the moderate instability.
  11. With all the talk of potential downed trees, even with light winds, it’s alarming to see us in spc’s slight risk for Friday with an explicit mention of damaging winds. Any convective gusts would be devastating.
  12. Realizing that we have to get through this week before worrying about the next, I don't like seeing a stalled front and huge PWs in the GFS forecasts for early next week.
  13. The last 2 NAM nest cycles do drop a small line segment south towards DC during the early evening hours.
  14. north-central/northern MD isn't going to do well based on radar. I misspoke earlier when I said that the line in southern PA matched the NAM3. The NAM3 correctly fired new convection right along the I-95 corridor. The HRRR has been kind of sparse today.
  15. liking the squall line forming over southern PA/northwest MD. fits well with the NAM3.
  16. The axis from Rockville down to Manassas just lit up!
  17. yes, but the HRRR has a high bias for precip/reflectivity. The HRRRX brings that down, but in the process of eliminating some of the false alarms, it occasionally loses a "real" event.
  18. the HRRR looks really good tonight, especially for the western side of DC. It's interesting, though, that the HRRRX (which becomes the HRRR next week) is not nearly as excited. Radar seems to suggest that the operational HRRR is on the right track, but we'll see.....
  19. NAM3 and HRRR both want to develop a few storms along the I-95 corridor by early afternoon - let's see if they are on to something.
  20. wind profiles are progged to be fairly decent as we approach evening.
  21. Not sure I agree. Saturday still has moderate instability with big PWs. If you look at the GFS, it looks "rainy", but it still has temps in the 80s. The details on the NAM3 suggest a convective element, so there will likely be some major rainers. Sunday is the cool (almost chilly), raw, showery day.
  22. Thank you. The transition from SVR to flooding occurred a little earlier than I was thinking, but the excellent hi-res guidance definitely steered me in the right direction.
  23. I do like seeing the HRRR get a line into our area, and the forecast soundings suggest that it would have severe potential. But one threat that appears more emphatically in the HRRR is significant rainfall from training convection over locations north of the DC Beltway.
  24. I do, as the NAM3 wants to bring an organized line in from the north into an environment with strong instability (due to impressive lapse rates) and modest deep layer shear. The shear is certainly better further north, but it would be sufficient this far south IF the extreme instability is realized.
  25. The wind fields up there are better, so I can see what they've highlighted that area, but we're going to have better instability (4000 sfc-based cape, per the NAM), and the CAMS have a nice squall line signal here too, so I'm perfectly fine with being in "only" the slight risk for now.
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