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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Yeah, I'm not sure what to make of this. The HRRR continues to be very emphatic about an active evening, but it doesn't have any of these early stuff. The current evolution seems to match more of some of the other CAMs which had an earlier, more scattered event.
  2. high risk
    My lawn could use a drink too... hope that we all cash in. SPC has put our region in a MRGL risk for SVR, which is consistent with the idea of more organized convection occurring.
  3. high risk
    There isn't much agreement in the timing, but the morning suite of CAMs suggests a really good chance of moderate or even fairly widespread convection over central and northern Maryland either during the dinner or early evening hours.
  4. high risk
    We've gone from multiple inches of rain for the week ahead to 0.5-0.75" on the WPC maps. To its credit, the GFS was never really on board with the Euro's big event.
  5. high risk
    Coverage will be limited, but there should in theory still be a few storms on the front over the next 4-5 hours. And any of those storms that are able to sustain strong updrafts could produce some severe winds or hail. I'm not super excited about this event, but I'm also not ready to say that it's over.
  6. high risk
    Those "good" runs earlier this morning had these showers on the north side of DC during the late morning, so I'm not terribly worried. That said, don't look at the 12z NAM Nest.
  7. high risk
    I'd generally agree, but a complicating factor is that no guidance has a very good handle right now on the strengthening convection over northeast WV and far western MD. Curious to see whether that has any influence on the evolution today.
  8. high risk
    Agreed with all of this. While I think that there are several mitigating factors (most notably the potential for subsidence behind the morning wave), I will note that 1) the 6z NAM nest for whatever reason tends to go weak on convection 2) I usually take it as a very positive sign when a morning, elevated MCS somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic is producing lightning. That's a great sign that we have steeper than usual lapse rates.
  9. high risk
    Might end up with a small SLGT risk area at some point tomorrow, but right now, there are too many questions on magnitude of instability and location and coverage of storms to justify the upgrade, IMHO.
  10. high risk
    The lapse rates and resulting instability tomorrow certainly have my attention. Deep layer shear looks to be good - will become stronger a bit too late. I can't help but notice a general consensus for the best threat to from DC to the east and southeast, so it doesn't look for now like those of us north or west of the city have the best chances, but there is certainly still some time to change that.
  11. high risk
    Confirming the previous two posts, there is some sneaky TOR potential for early Thursday morning, as low-level shear will be very strong. Instability will be limited, and these super wet early morning environments don't often work out for us, but it's a non-zero threat for sure.
  12. high risk
    NAM nest (and other guidance) has trended much faster now for tomorrow's activity. Still perhaps a small threat for an embedded circulation somewhere during the morning, but instability will be limited.
  13. high risk
    Yeah, I won't assess the end of the season yet, but Thursday (maybe later tomorrow night for western areas) has some sneaky potential, particularly if the slowest solutions are correct. I still think it's more of a flooding threat, but shear will be strengthening. If we can get some heating ahead of the main frontal band on Thursday, at least some modest SVR potential is possible.
  14. high risk
    The I-95 corridor of Howard County was total Loserville today.
  15. high risk
    For those of us north of DC, there seems to be a fairly decent signal in the 12z CAMs for showers/storms to develop over the upper Eastern Shore and Bay during the mid afternoon hours and rotate to the west into the Baltimore area and northern AA, Howard, and Montgomery Counties.
  16. high risk
    I was surprised by the box, given no MD and the fact that we're cooling post-sunset. But the parameters on the SPC mesoanalysis look pretty good.
  17. high risk
    While the location of the max is jumping around (as it often does), the last several consecutive HRRR runs all have a 2-4" max somewhere in north-central or northern Maryland.
  18. high risk
    That NAM3 run thinks that most of the convection will die before reaching Delaware - it has a few scattered cells moving across the state much later tonight. It's not an unreasonable solution that convection will not be widespread at the unfavorable time of day. That said, there are other CAMs that generate enough forcing ahead of the front to compensate for the limited late-night instability, and they have more widespread and heavier rain in eastern areas later tonight.
  19. high risk
    I'm mostly on board with the severe threat, although the coverage of storms during the severe "window" (roughly 21z to 02z) will be limited. Might transition to more of a flash flood threat later in the evening.
  20. high risk
    I didn't pay close attention to guidance yesterday, and the potential for Sunday to not be so nice of a day really snuck up on me.
  21. high risk
    What's happening now in the PHL-TTN corridor this evening would have been us with a slightly further west and slower track for Ida.
  22. high risk
    I'll say this: there seems to be some agreement that this line to our west will sweep through in a few hours. The HRRR hodographs are garbage, but even though the 18z NAM Nest weakens the shear, it keeps the sfc winds more backed, and I can't rule out a TOR or two if that solution ends up correct.
  23. high risk
    The HRRR has another nice convective band moving through early this evening, but low-level winds are progged to significantly veer by then, so I'm not buying much of a TOR threat unless those forecasted wind profiles are really off.
  24. high risk
    Any school system on the east side of the Potomac that didn't dismiss early made a mistake today. The Annapolis tornado hit right around dismissal time.
  25. high risk
    The only event I can recall is the April 27-28, 2011 event when we were under a tornado watch here for over 20 straight hours. But that was an instance of SPC continually reissuing the box. I can't recall an event with two separate events (with a break in between) requiring tornado watches on the same day before.
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