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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    NAM camp seems to be coming around to the idea of a later start too.
  2. high risk
    That's a weird evolution in the HiResW FV3, but thanks for pointing that out.
  3. high risk
    Is there any model other than the RGEM bring precip to most of the area during daylight hours on Wednesday? I know that several CAMs have that lead snow band in northeast MD, but it seems like a lot of guidance is dry for most of us until the tail end of the evening commute.
  4. high risk
    12Z NAM ptype and soundings suggest an initial shot of snow followed by a longer period of sleet. It eventually goes to rain or freezing rain but with very marginal surface temperatures until you get closer to the MD-PA border.
  5. high risk
    Still looks like one batch of rain during the midday and another this evening.
  6. high risk
    Maybe, but the GFS always erodes cold air damming way too quickly, even at shorter ranges.
  7. high risk
    FWIW, I found a case almost 3 years ago to the day in which we busted on a snowfall here locally as low-level arctic air was slower to arrive than progged. The RGEM was the outlier among models right before the event, showing a slower push of the front, and it was right. I don't want to make too much out of two cases in three years, but it's something I will file away in the back of my mind.
  8. high risk
    I’m assuming that final band is on the leading edge of the arctic air.
  9. high risk
    The Kuchera daylight ratios show us getting 37 straight hours of darkness.
  10. high risk
    Clarification needed: the 12z soundings do not make it into the 12z HRRR. They’ll be used in the 13z cycle (which of course only runs 18 hours out…..)
  11. high risk
    That's awesome! But this really isn't about pulling in mild air from the ocean. It's a question of where the thermal boundary sets up at the start of the day and how quickly it moves southeast. The snowiest models move it quickly away, while the other solutions keep it close by, and we lose some QPF to a mix, before the cold air finally wins out during the afternoon.
  12. high risk
    1.5" in southern Howard County
  13. high risk
    I think that's really generous, but we'll see......
  14. high risk
    Looking at the RAP with Kuchera ratios for a snow event is like eating an entire stick of butter when you want a modest snack and then washing it down with a glass of canola oil.
  15. high risk
    It's driven by lower-atmosphere temperatures. It's great at chopping amounts in marginal temperature environments, and the premise that SLRs will be better than 10:1 in cold environments has some truth, but it's not as simple as colder=better SLR, so it goes nuts when the air mass is cold.
  16. high risk
    Thank you. The Kuchera drives me nuts. It always feels like this is 10:1 and this is the same case with Kuchera:
  17. high risk
    I'm in the "00Z NAM at f84 looks closer to the 18Z Euro at f90" camp.
  18. high risk
    Up to 6" here in southern Howard County, with moderate snow falling under this good band.
  19. high risk
    You should have just said that you were looking at the NAM (which is 2 hours slower than most other guidance).
  20. high risk
    It actually matches the HRRR (and several other models quite well), although I'd lean towards the latter parts of those time periods. The NAMs have a clear bias towards too slow of an onset in precipitation, and that is true whether it's summer convection or a winter storm.
  21. high risk
    Yeah, by hour 96, the 00Z cycle handled the shortwave over Montana quite differently than the previous 2 cycles.
  22. high risk
    Note that this run does not include any of the 00Z model runs, and no NBM snow product contains any Canadian data. No NBM product at all contains any UKMET data.
  23. high risk
    Agreed. In areas that stay all snow, a blend of the Ferrier product and the Kuchera product might work pretty well.
  24. high risk
    When looking at 3k NAM output, it's worth looking at the Ferrier snow accumulation product. This one is connected directly to the model microphysics, so it knows exactly what the model is doing with the falling precipitation. It can actually run a bit low for areas that stay all snow, but it's terrific at sorting out where the model thinks that the sleet will be mixing or other interference to pure snow accumulation.
  25. high risk
    The 3k is a far superior model.
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