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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    It's not just the NAM. It's pretty clear consensus across the modeling suite that we're looking at a strong convective line later in the day Saturday. Fortunately, it's timed well and has good moisture, so there is also consensus that it will drop some decent amounts and last for a few hours. There will be more runoff than we'd prefer, but we'll take what we can get.
  2. high risk
    The 500 mb forecasts look terrific for late Sunday, but I agree with SPC that the moisture ahead of the system right now looks iffy. The weakening Saturday wave don't help things at all, as it disrupts what might be a longer period of southerly flow into our currently very dry air mass.
  3. high risk
    confirmed TOR on that Delaware cell
  4. high risk
    (Should this discussion be in the SVR subforum?) What changed in the 18Z NAM Nest is that it now backs the sfc winds in the afternoon which allows low-level dew points to ramp up before the front arrives. This creates a thermodynamic and kinematic profiles that support supercells. it's quite a change from the earlier runs which had sfc winds veering by midday and low level dew points lowering significantly in the afternoon. I need to see this idea show up in the 00Z cycle and see it in other models before buying in.
  5. high risk
    Certainly a synoptic wind threat later tomorrow, especially along and behind the front. The question is whether there are severe gusts with a line of showers just ahead of the front - the NAM is impressive but is somewhat of an outlier with that feature for now.
  6. high risk
    Interesting thought. In my mind, the severe season here doesn't really kick in on average until around May 10 (yes, there are exceptions), so moving that start up to late March would be a big jump. How about if we try a smaller increment and the severe season in mid to late April instead? I could also see an introduction of a fall season (aside from tropical events). We usually end up just a bit cool for those dynamic autumn systems.
  7. high risk
    Who wants to drive to Williamsport on Wednesday to experience a squall line of heavy snow?
  8. high risk
    Always always always use the NAM Nest for temperatures in a cold air damming situation when other guidance is faster trying to erode the wedge.
  9. high risk
    Most of Friday looks nasty for sure. That said, we'll end up with a high in the 61-65 range due to the temperature at 12:01 AM.
  10. high risk
    Definitely some sleet pellets mixed in here in southern Howard County. Models are pretty insistent that the heaviest downpours will be after dark - some elevated CAPE suggests that a few rumbles of thunder aren't out of the question.
  11. high risk
    The NAM Nest is pretty clearly a dry outlier; it looks like every other model (including the NAM parent) has snow here tomorrow. You're spot on, though, that the temperatures are super tricky. It's tough to imagine a scenario in which the roads get messy (unless the rates are *really* impressive), but I can definitely envision some accumulation on grassy surfaces and decks.
  12. high risk
    Sort of. The FV3 is the model "core". The GFS already uses the FV3 core. The NAM uses the NMMB core, and the RAP/HRRR use the ARW core. The NAM/RAP are technically to be "replaced" by the GFS. All of the hi-res models (including the NAM Nest and HRRR) will be replaced by the Rapid Refresh Forecast System (RRFS) ensemble system which will use the FV3 core.
  13. high risk
    A couple of corrections here: 1) The SREF is not truly connected to the NAM. Half of the SREF members use the same model core as the NAM, but half use the same core that is used by the HRRR. 2) Neither the NAM nor the SREF has been upgraded in many years, and both systems are due for retirement within the next 2-3 years.
  14. high risk
    While we're enjoying an amazing afternoon, the 18Z NAM just happy hour'd us for Saturday snow.
  15. high risk
    All of the CAMs nicely depict cooler air to our east coming westward towards our area, but they really don't have it arriving until after dark. By then, nocturnal cooling will make it less apparent that a backdoor front is arriving.
  16. high risk
    If one loops back through the older NAM Nest forecasts for this morning, its 00Z cycle last night picked up on the idea that it would take time this morning to bust into the warmer air. 80 is likely now off of the table for most, but at least the low 70s seems likely for much of the DC area with 75 still possible on the south side of town.
  17. high risk
    The best signal is for those north of the DC Beltway, but most of the CAMs do show convection rolling through during the early to mid afternoon hours. The soundings to me support small hail more than they support strong winds, so I'm not sure about the 5% wind threat, but I'll take it for late February.
  18. high risk
    Nice to see the entire 00Z suite of CAMs show a "non-shutout" (with some much better) for most of us.
  19. high risk
    agreed. The forecasted soundings show some elevated CAPE, and there were a few lightning strikes earlier in the storms that fired just east of DC.
  20. high risk
    Actually, it warms my heart to see so many people posting the accumulated snow depth maps, as the 10:1 maps are for sure going to be inflated. That said, while I strongly support the snow depth products, they can run low in events in which the soil is warm. If we can hold off the snow until dinner time and get some decent rates, it might stick a bit ore efficiently than the snow depth maps show. Not a fan of the Kuchera.
  21. high risk
    The primary low transfers to a new low near.... check notes.... Winchester.
  22. high risk
    Radar looking impressive!
  23. high risk
    Pretty solid signal in the CAMs this evening for low-topped convection later Thursday for north-central MD. Soundings might support some very small hail if the updrafts are sufficiently strong.
  24. high risk
    I should have clarified that the model struggles with the temperature drop were east of the mountains.... which makes sense.
  25. high risk
    The models have done a lot of aspects of this frontal passage well, but one struggle has been how quickly the temps drop behind the front, and that had huge implications for potential for the flash freeze. Even all of the 12Z models today show me in the low 20s by 11AM, but it's still 28 here. If you look at HRRR trends, it took a long time to catch on to the idea that the big drop would be delayed.
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