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high risk

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Everything posted by high risk

  1. high risk
    Things continue to look active for the late afternoon / early evening period. SPC has added an ENH to the DC-Baltimore corridor.
  2. high risk
    While coverage may be slightly lower in the northern counties, the main reason for leaving them out of the watch is that the flash flood guidance shows that it will take more rain up there to cause problems than it will along the I-95 corridor:
  3. high risk
    As I said yesterday, I like tomorrow, especially for central MD. We'll have good timing, moderate forcing, moderate instability, and decent deep layer shear. The tornado threat isn't huge, but the forecast soundings do show some turning of direction in the lower-levels, so I would agree that a tornado or two can't be ruled out.
  4. high risk
    I will cautiously share some of LWX's optimism, as I kind of like what I'm seeing on the CAMs (I'll ignore the NAM Nest Howard County split....) in terms of storms forming along what appears to be the lee trough in the late afternoon Tuesday in an environment with with good instability and shear.
  5. high risk
    Here is the HREF 24h local probability matched-mean. For those who don't know the HREF, it's basically creating means and probabilities from existing hi-res models (NAM Nest, HRRR, and Hi-Res Windows). Impressive signal:
  6. high risk
    There really isn't much of a threat this evening on the east side of the Potomac (and the threat to the west doesn't ramp up until you go quite a bit further west). The heaviest rain will fall much later tonight through Saturday morning. While I am also a bit surprised that a flash flood watch hasn't yet been hoisted, the last night's guidance had a lot of disagreement on the location of the heaviest rain, so I can't blame them for waiting until there was more certainty. Looks to me like there is more agreement in the 12Z guidance that is coming out, and that watch should be hoisted by mid-afternoon at the latest.
  7. high risk
    Some weak rotation and a slight hook on that cell just south of Bowie.....
  8. high risk
    It's in development - called the Warn on Forecast System: https://wof.nssl.noaa.gov
  9. high risk
    That's a decent couplet and modest hook - I can't fault LWX for pulling the trigger.
  10. high risk
    The storm is turned around a bit since it's moving southeast, but yeah, there is a modest hook around Fairland.
  11. high risk
    Nice localized wind signal around Calverton
  12. high risk
    While I agree that we should keep expectations in check, I'm sure if I totally agree with the details of this take. The NAM Nest has certainly hated today for most of us in multiple runs, but last night's HiResWs ARW2 and FV3 were fine. And while the HRRR doesn't like the tier of counties along the PA border, several runs have been plenty active for Montgomery/Howard/Baltimore. Shear is fine today; the question will how much of a westerly component is in the 850 flow and whether the early morning convection messes things up - both are certainly plausible fail scenarios.
  13. high risk
    Still looks like that the best chance of widespread rain for those of us on the eastern side of DC is later tonight through midday Thursday. That said, I don't like that the 18Z NAM Nest moved the axis of heaviest rain closer to the Bay.
  14. high risk
    The wind signal on that storm is definitely vicious.
  15. high risk
    I still like the SVR threat generally being confined to areas west of an axis that bisects DC, although it looks like it could spill eastward by a county. I do feel better, however, about chances for heavier rain for those of us on the east side of town. The heaviest rain in the late afternoon will be west of DC, but there seems to be agreement on a lot of showers on the east side of town overnight through Thursday morning.
  16. high risk
    Agreed. Looking at the various CAMs, there isn't going to be very much CAPE available on the east side of the Potomac. The best SVR risk is likely to be west of DC.
  17. high risk
    I'm assuming that's with the strong front that looks to roll through next Monday? The frontal timing looks off so far, but we obviously have 7 days to slow it down......
  18. high risk
    Definitely. They're fighting the dry air from downscoping, and frontal convergence is weak, but there is likely just enough forcing along the front to get these isolated small showers. The main show is further south, where the long-lived MCS is moving into central/southern VA.
  19. high risk
    Just got an isolated, brief, unexpected downpour in southern Howard County.
  20. high risk
    I'm as skeptical as you are about round 2, especially given model trends, but I'm still surprised that they did this. The recent MD talked about the threat later this evening, but I'm guessing that the evening shift came on at SPC and decided that the threat isn't enough to keep the watch up.
  21. high risk
    Definitely electrified anvil activity. You can see very slight reflectivity in the areas where the strikes occurred.
  22. high risk
    Same here - just down the road. Several lightning strikes way, way removed from the rain.
  23. high risk
    There is discussion about this in the Severe thread. CAPE is much lower east of the Potomac, and storms are not surviving as they approach the river. They're turning to ride the instability gradient a bit.
  24. high risk
    Yes. Saw the lightning, followed by loud thunder. Was not expecting that.
  25. high risk
    Several recent lightning strikes over Howard/PG Counties, well removed from he precip.
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