beavis1729

LOT canceled the warning.

Same here...slight increase in rates and temp down to 32. Had been hovering around 34 much of the afternoon. Nearly 1” now in grassy areas, but still nothing on paved surfaces. If this keeps up for 4-5 more hours, we could make a run at 3”.

Definitely underwhelming so far, relative to expectations. Dusting on grass, nothing on paved surfaces. The rates just aren’t high enough.

If ORD gets more than 2.2", it will be Chicago's largest snowfall on record so late in the season. May 1-2, 1940 saw 2.2".

In the "fun to look at" category...

ALEK!

WSW for southern WI...although this was issued prior to the guidance shifting south a bit. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI 251 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019 ...Late April Winter Storm Taking Aim On Southern Wisconsin... .A strong late season winter storm will bring a widespread 5 to 7 inch snowfall to southern Wisconsin Saturday into Saturday evening. A very narrow band of higher amounts is possible. The snow will start in the Madison area and points west during the mid morning hours and continue through the early evening. Across the southeast, including the Milwaukee metro area, look for a late morning or early afternoon start time, continuing through the late evening. Snowfall rates during the afternoon will likely reach 1 inch per hour. Warm pavement temperatures will cause a rapid slushy accumulation that will be difficult to travel in. Temperatures falling below freezing Saturday night will cause any standing water and slush to freeze. The higher snow accumulations will occur on grassy and elevated surfaces. Sunshine and temperatures in the 40s on Sunday will cause a lot of the snow to melt, especially on roads and sidewalks. Though the impact on Saturday will be high, it will be short lived due to improving conditions on Sunday. WIZ064>066-070>072-261600- /O.NEW.KMKX.WS.A.0005.190427T1800Z-190428T0600Z/ Jefferson-Waukesha-Milwaukee-Walworth-Racine-Kenosha- Including the cities of Watertown, Fort Atkinson, Jefferson, Waukesha, Brookfield, New Berlin, Menomonee Falls, Muskego, West Allis, Wauwatosa, Greenfield, Franklin, Oak Creek, South Milwaukee, Cudahy, Whitewater, Delavan, Elkhorn, Lake Geneva, East Troy, Racine, and Kenosha 251 AM CDT Fri Apr 26 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations of 5 to 7 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph. * WHERE...Portions of southeast Wisconsin. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through late Saturday evening. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Travel could be very difficult. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A Winter Storm Watch means there is potential for significant snow, sleet or ice accumulations that may impact travel. Continue to monitor the latest forecasts.

Verbatim, the 12z FV3 is shocking. No other way to put it. 1.6" to 1.7" liquid across far N IL, most of it snow. I keep thinking I'm misreading the graphics...

Yes!! Very well said.

Very impressive. I imagine that 2018-19 in MQT is also in the Top 3 for consecutive days with 1"+ snow depth (164 days - November 9th to April 21st). It's a shame that snowfall in March-April was much below normal, because otherwise they would have probably shattered the record. MQT has only had 16.8" of snow in March-April; normal is 48".

Very dry today. ORD is 61/12, RH 14%.

If you think it's cloudy where you live in east-central IN...compare that to Seattle...or even western MI, downwind of Lake Michigan. Much cloudier climate in the cold season there. Everything is relative. From weatherspark.com: % of days that are overcast or mostly cloudy: Richmond Grand Rapids Seattle Nov: 50% 56% 68% Dec: 58% 65% 71% Jan: 60% 68% 71% Feb: 58% 64% 68%

Yeah, it's crazy. I don't ever remember seeing fresh/white snow with temps in the 70s, until today. There are still a few very small fresh piles of snow from 2 days ago (we got about 5" here). Sometimes you'll see piles of dirty/black snow left over from the winter when you get a really warm day in mid-late March...but it's extremely rare for us to see this drastic of a warm up after a significant snowfall.

Nice pics Bo, as always. Great to hear the lakes near you are still frozen...amazing. What do you think of winter 2018-19? For awhile, it looked like you were going to have an epic season up there, but it seems like the snowfall completely shutoff at some point. I guess it’s not too unusual given the frozen Lake Superior...but as an example, MQT has only had 17” since March 1, whereas 44” is normal.

Yes, full sunshine all day and up to 50 now. I had 5” yesterday, which compacted to 3” by this morning. Now, only the shaded areas have snow remaining. UHI doesn’t help either. Not complaining or anything, as this was completely expected.

Yep.

Nice satellite pic, cyclone...that's a keeper. A great storm for mid-April. Unfortunately, it illustrates the Chicago metro UHI very well. Ugh.

Not bad for 1:24 PM on April 14th: KORD 141824Z 02025G33KT 1/4SM R10L/1400V1600FT +SN FG VV005 00/00 A2961 RMK AO2 PK WND 02035/1810 PRESFR P0002 T00000000 $

Pretty bullish given the time of year, but hard to argue with your call. I will go 2” for ORD and 3” here. If ORD happens to surpass 3.1”, it would be the 2nd largest calendar day snowfall on record so late in the season.

Looks like the 18z NAM ticked a *bit* SE from the 12z NAM, but is still not nearly as far SE as the Euro/GFS/FV3. From a liquid precip standpoint, looks like a nice hit for Chicago metro...around 1" QPF. Is it worth analyzing NAM soundings at 36-60 hours to determine precip type??

Agree - good summary at the moment. In such a marginal set-up, it will probably come down to nowcasting...or, at a minimum, another 1-2 sets of model runs. Still a lot of uncertainty in modeled QPF for being only 36 hours out. 12z NAM shows 1.00+" liquid in Chicago metro, with the GFS and FV3 around 0.5" (although quite a bit more further south). Not sure about the Euro, although you mentioned that ORD gets hit pretty good verbatim. The track seems to be converging on a general solution...but of course even 10-20 miles can make a big difference for the metro.

Thank you sir. Most surprising to me is 6 occurrences of 2”+ this late in the season. I didn’t think it would be that many. Of course Chicago has a long period of record.

I guess 5's are wild...here are current temps across NE IL: UGN 45 ORD 55 LOT 65 IKK 75

On the 18z NAM, the Kuchera ratio maps show reasonable ratios for the Sunday event, around 8:1. Still may not be low enough...but probably in the ballpark.