beavis1729
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Everything posted by beavis1729
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RAP is actually trending a bit colder. 22z RAP shows low temps of -37 at RFD and -33 at ORD. Actual modeled temps on the RAP may be overdone, but I think the trends are important. To Stebo’s post above, the NWS point forecast for some locations in northern MN (near INL) is down to -51.
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20z RAP shows -21 at 9 pm and -25 at midnight, then bottoming at -32 at 7 am. On paper, it seems like ORD has a good shot at the record. Assuming -14 at 4 pm, it needs to drop one degree per hour over the following 15 hours in order to hit -29.
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2 pm temps: -16 ORD -14 RFD -14 here
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Probably a couple reasons why ORD is colder than MLI: west winds covering less of a snow field before arriving at MLI, and H85 temps are a bit warmer at MLI.
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Wow...enjoy!
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ORD still -17 at 1pm central...wow.
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Rockford had a midnight temp of -16, but it has now warmed up to -15 at 1pm central. All time record low max is -14 on 1/18/1994 and 1/6/1924...which will probably hold. It looks like the coldest daily mean temp at Rockford is -18.5 on 1/18/1994 (high -14, low -23). That has a good chance of being broken. Just need today’s high temp to not go above -13, or it needs to drop below -25 prior to midnight.
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We'll have to pull up the January 2014 thread to see what the coldest Chicago noon temps are. I think today's -18 at ORD may be the 2nd or 3rd coldest all-time?
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Wow, is ORD colder than RFD at 12 noon...you don't see that very often in an arctic air mass.
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12z HRRR shows Rockford IL as the coldest place in the country tomorrow morning:
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Agree...that's a good way to look at it. Just need to watch for high clouds coming in with the next clipper...but, even so, temps will still have a long time to crash before that.
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Thanks for the clarification! Still very impressive; today will go down as the 2nd coldest day in Chicago history (-16.5 daily mean temp).
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Great to hear! This is really an impressive airmass, something I honesty never thought I would see in this area. ORD is still -21 at 10 AM central. RFD -22, De Kalb -23.
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Chicago will destroy 3 of these 4 daily records, and may break the 4th one: Jan 30: low -15 (1966); low max 3 (2004) Jan 31: low -12 (1985); low max 1 (1971) It also looks like today will be the 2nd coldest daily mean temp in Chicago history: 12/24/1983: -18 (-11/-25) 1/30/2019: -16.5 (-10/-23) 1/18/1994: -16 (-11/-21) Edited to correct today's low at ORD, to -23.
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7AM obs: ORD -23, dew -32, wind W 20G30, WC -52 RFD -25, dew -35, wind W 14, WC -51 -25 here.
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ORD and RFD need to start dropping fast. -4 and -6 at 8:00 PM. Need to get to -12 and -15 by midnight to have a chance at the all time coldest max tomorrow.
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Yep...coldest I have felt was -45 on 1/6/2014, I think we will easily beat this.
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Crookston, MN is -26 with a WC of -62...at 2:00 PM local time! That is just shocking beyond belief. May be ice fog too, considering the 1/4 mile visibility. CROOKSTON CLOUDY -26 -33 68 N32 30.24S VSB 1/4 WCI -62
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Wow at the Euro. If some of the low-lying locations in IL (Rochelle, Aurora, Sterling) can max out at only -15 on Wednesday afternoon and then clear out Wed night, I imagine the state record low of -36 is in jeopardy. Still to early to pin down these details...but it's certainly possible.
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And here it comes... Grand Forks ND at 11 AM central: temp -25, winds N 29 G 43, wind chill -59. Coldest wind chill so far: -61 at Flag Island MN, -27 with NW wind 25 mph.
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Agree...and many of the models are showing exactly that. As an example, 12z GFS shows -4 at RFD at 6PM tonight, crashing to -22 by midnight...wow.
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While I think Chicago and Rockford will be comfortably safe from the "midnight high" on Wed morning, some of the models are showing that it may warm up enough on Wed afternoon to prevent breaking the all-time record low maxes (-11 Chicago and -14 Rockford)...before temps tank again at sunset. Yesterday, I thought we'd have a 90% chance of this record being broken at both ORD and RFD...but right now I'd say 60-70%.
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06z FV3 is not backing down at all. It shows -42C H85 temps in west-central MN at 0z tonight; I think this is the coldest modeled output that I've seen so far. Also, -38C H85 temps in N IL at 9z Wed.
