beavis1729

Here is the point forecast for Langdon, ND. 18-32" through Friday, with more snow Friday night and Saturday. Amazing. Brings back memories of the 1991 Halloween storm in Duluth, but this time there's no lake enhancement. Today Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow after noon. High near 33. Breezy, with a north wind 23 to 28 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Tonight Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Areas of blowing snow. Low around 28. Windy, with a north wind around 30 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 4 to 8 inches possible. Friday Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow. High near 30. Windy, with a north northwest wind 33 to 37 mph, with gusts as high as 50 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 10 to 16 inches possible. Friday night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Widespread blowing snow, mainly after 5am. Low around 28. Windy, with a north northwest wind 32 to 39 mph, with gusts as high as 55 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Saturday Snow. Widespread blowing snow before 4pm, then patchy blowing snow after 5pm. High near 32. Windy, with a north northwest wind 29 to 34 mph decreasing to 18 to 23 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 48 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

Not in our sub-forum...but I can't remember seeing it so dry in Denver. At 5PM local time yesterday, it was 78/-5, translating to RH of 4%.

The 6z GFS ups the ante even more, at least for Grand Forks...

Of course it’s still early, but I’ve been seeing some hints at a modoki El Niño for DJF, which in theory would be good for many of us. There’s a recent post in the mid-Atlantic forum winter thread on this. Not sure how to link to the image on mobile.

Disappointing at ORD, missed the monthly record by a hair. I knew this could happen when I was out for a walk last night around 11:00, and could feel the outflow hit. I'm about 20 miles N of ORD. The temp dropped from 77 to 70 in 15 minutes. But Rockford did set a new monthly high min for October: RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO IL 0145 AM CDT WED OCT 2 2019 ...ALL-TIME RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER SET AT ROCKFORD IL ON TUESDAY OCTOBER 1... A DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 70 DEGREES WAS SET AT ROCKFORD ON TUESDAY OCTOBER 1. THIS BREAKS THE PREVIOUS RECORD FOR OCTOBER 1 OF 63 DEGREES SET IN 1971. THIS ALSO WAS A DAILY RECORD HIGH MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR THE MONTH OF OCTOBER. THIS TOPS THE OLD RECORD OF 69 DEGREES SET ON OCTOBER 3 1954 AND OCTOBER 21 1979. THE PERIOD OF RECORD FOR ROCKFORD DATES BACK TO 1905.

Looks like the morning low of 73 still held...so far, anyway.

In the category of "obliterating existing records"... After the recent snowstorm in western MT, with over 4 feet of snow around Glacier National Park, Cut Bank dropped to 6F on 9/30/19. This shatters the old daily record of 19F set in 1959. This morning (10/1/19), Cut Bank dropped to 1F. The old daily record was 14F, set in 1950.

Good call...ORD only dropped to 73 this morning, at least on the hourlies.

Yeah, Joliet is 86/73/93.

Yep, I think Detroit will stay above 68 overnight. There could be some rain in the area during the evening of 10/1 to drop the temp lower before midnight...but hard to say right now. For ORD, the all-time record high minimum for October is 71, set on 10/1/1971 and 10/4/2005. Just last year, the min was 70 on October 9th. Even more remarkable, the min was 70 on 10/21/1979. I had to triple-check, but it looks accurate. That is unbelievable. The more I look at the numbers, Chicago can still experience some surprisingly warm temps in late October. The record high on Halloween is 84, set in 1950...which is about 30 degrees above normal. I think ORD may be 70+ tomorrow morning...but just like Detroit, it may rain during the evening of 10/1 to spoil it.

Although it’s technically in MT instead of WY, the West Yellowstone area is beautiful. I was there in early June. Mild to warm days, with cool nights. Nearly every night drops into the 40s or lower, even during the heart of summer. If you like winter, it’s a paradise. Nearly 150” of annual snowfall, with 5-6 months of snow cover in most years. I think the normal high/low in January is around 20/-5, with temps easily hitting the -20s or lower during the colder periods. And the scenery is amazing, especially compared to the suburbs of Chicago. Agree about low property taxes; I noticed that when looking at homes out there too. Not sure about other economic opportunities, as my focus is on retirement considerations in the next 5-10 years.

Looking at the daily data for Machias, snow depth was 0” on January 24th, then increased to 74” by February 16th. Wow. Snow depth was still 62” on March 4th, and finally melted out on April 18th.

Tampa FL had a low of 84 this morning, and it will probably hold through midnight since no rain is expected. This would be their 2nd warmest min on record; the highest is 85 on 8/27/2011. Currently in Tampa (10 AM local time), it's partly cloudy and 87/79/101. Just brutal...

Phoenix is 92/66 at 6:00 AM local time...yuck. The high yesterday was 107, with a min of 88.

Yeah... Midland TX (MAF) is up to 112, which is a new August monthly high. Records go back to 1930. The old August monthly high was 108, and the daily record high was 103 (!). There have only been two higher temps on record: 116 on 6/27/1994, and 114 on 6/28/1994. Edit: MAF hit 113.

Not in our area...but all-time record high temps are possible in western TX today. From NWS Midland: Let`s cut to the chase this morning - it`s going to be extremely, dangerously hot today. An Excessive Heat Warning remains in effect for the entire area, with the exception of only northern Lea county, the mountains of West Texas and Southeast New Mexico, and the Presidio Valley, where Heat Advisories are in effect. Temperatures this afternoon will soar into the 100s areawide (you won`t even be able to get away from the heat in the mountains today), and records are expected to fall. Yesterday, Midland set a new record high temperature for the month of August of 108 degrees, and today`s forecast high of 113 would easily top that, as well as be the hottest temperature we`ve ever had this late in the calendar year. For a little perspective, if we hit 113 today, it`ll be Midland`s third hottest day on record, beaten only by June 27th and June 28th 1994 (116 degrees and 114 degrees, respectively). We cannot stress enough how dangerous today`s heat will be, and encourage everyone to follow heat safety rules, and be cognizant of the symptoms and dangers of heat related illness. Per this morning`s water vapor imagery, an elongated ridge of high pressure remains anchored over the region, with a deepening trough extending from the Upper Midwest to the central Gulf Coast. An 850hpa thermal ridge will help drive temperatures up this afternoon, with latest guidance indicating 850hpa temperatures of around +33C to nearly +37C by later today. The NAM and GFS came in closer to the warmer ECMWF guidance for temperatures aloft, though at the surface, per Sunday`s verification, guidance has continued to under-forecast high temperatures. Have continued to lean toward the warmer ECMWF guidance, with deep mixing expected to yield surface temperatures this afternoon of 105-115 degrees across lower elevations, and 100-105 degrees across the higher terrain.

I echo that.

A nice tribute to Amy Seeley, from NWS LOT: https://www.weather.gov/lot/AmySeeleyTribute

INL dropped to 37 this morning. This broke the daily record of 38, set in 1898 (!). Normal low for July 30th is 53. It was a "perfect storm" of conditions...cloudy all day yesterday with temps in the mid 60s until sunset, then it cleared out with light winds and temps dropped quickly.

Looks like Paris officially hit 108, breaking their all-time high of 105 from 1947.

Nice overnight AFD from Carlaw at LOT. Very technical and interesting. Mentioned a term that I've never heard before: Wet Bulb Globe Temperature (WBGT), a measure of heat stress in direct sunlgiht which takes into account sun angle, cloud cover, and wind speed. Depending on what happens with any convective complex Thursday morning, outflow may temporarily bring lower dewpoints and temperatures to the area to start the day. However, southwesterly low-level flow will transport renewed moisture into the region through the day. Rising mid-level heights and 850 mb temperatures warming towards +25C will set the stage for oppressive heat and humidity on Thursday afternoon. Some questions remain regarding the degree of mixing during the afternoon with breezy southwesterly winds (gusting to 25-30 mph at times), although the aforementioned cap may limit the propensity for dewpoints to quickly mix out. If this occurs, heat indices would likely rise into the 104-110 degree range across a large portion of the CWA (including the lakeshore). The breezy southwest winds will help take the edge of the heat and humidity a bit, however. The Wet Bulb Globe Temperature, which is a measure of heat stress (in direct sunlight) and takes into account sun angle, cloud cover, and wind speeds maxes out in the 86-89 degree range on Thursday with our current forecast. While these values are certainly at the higher end of the spectrum, WBGT values are actually higher (89-92) on Friday when wind speeds decrease, even though heat indices may actually be a degree or two lower than on Thursday. Values above 89 indicate exceptionally high heat stress potential. The heat and humidity look to persist into Saturday, although there are still some questions regarding MCSs which may start to get close to us. Associated cooling outflows throw a wrench into this portion of the forecast. Given the lingering uncertainties (regarding mixing potential on Thursday and the longevity of the hottest conditions), we will not be hoisting any heat headlines at this time. A combination of Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Watches/Warnings will likely be needed in future forecasts, however. It`s also worth noting here that little relief from the heat will occur at night, with sweltering conditions expected Thursday and Friday nights with near or record high minimum temperatures forecast.

Yeah, could be close. Excessive Heat Watch for the entire state of Iowa. DVN's Excessive Heat Warning criteria is 2 consecutive days with HI 105+, or 4 consecutive days with HI 100+. From DVN: 313 PM CDT Mon Jul 15 2019 ...EXCESSIVE HEAT WATCH IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING... The National Weather Service in Quad Cities has issued an Excessive Heat Watch, which is in effect from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday evening. * Heat Index Values...Ranging from 100 to 110 due to temperatures in the mid to upper 90s...and dewpoints in the low to mid 70s. * Timing...Wednesday Afternoon through Saturday Evening. * Impacts...Heat-related illnesses may occur due to the prolonged period of heat and humidity.

Nice stats. As it looks now, Friday will remain capped/sunny, with a high launching point in the AM (overnight min near 80F). Lack of afternoon mixing is always a risk, but would be mitigated somewhat due to the high overnight min and relatively dry ground. With this in mind, here are my thoughts for ORD: 98F or higher: 80% 100F or higher: 40% 102F or higher: 5% Daily records for 7/19 are: - Max = 101F, set in 1930 - Warmest min = 78F, set in 2011

Hoosier - very sorry to hear what happened...and best wishes for a speedy and successful recovery. Nice to see you posting here again.

Per NWS Anchorage, I think the official site (Ted Stevens airport) hit 90. Previous all time record high was 85...and, on average, Anchorage only hits 80 once every 4 years. This is crazy.