beavis1729

Some shockingly cold temps for October are occurring, or will soon occur, in MT/WY/CO/NE. Laramie, WY may drop to -16, which would be the coldest temp on record so early in the season (October record low is -18 on 10/30/1993). Most impressive relative to climo may be Billings, MT. Tomorrow morning, it may hit 4...which would shatter the record low of 18 set in 1997. Monday morning may hit -2; the record low is 22 set in 1970. Breaking a daily record by 24 degrees...not bad. Records in Billings go back to 1934. There has only been one sub-zero October day in Billings in recorded history (-7 on 10/30/1991).

Interesting data for MSN...hard to believe the -37 on 1/30/1951. Their 2nd coldest temp on record is "only" -30 on 1/15/1963. A few days have come close in the (somewhat) modern era...such as -29 on 2/3/1996; -28 on 1/16/1979 & 2/1/1985; -27 on 1/20/1994; -26 on 1/31/2019. This makes the -29 on 3/1/1962 even more impressive.

Yeah, I thought about the -25 and -27. The one thing that 12/24/1983 had going for it was that it's nearly the shortest day of the year. But I agree a case could be made for it being #1 on the list. EDIT: I made a couple updates to the ORD list.

While we're in a boring weather period before the cold season gets underway, I thought it would be interesting to list out the temperature records at ORD that are easiest and most difficult to break. I'm only focusing on the cold & low-solar season, NDJF. Feel free to add other locations too. I may add low max and high min records later. A more detailed statistical analysis would probably look at all daily temps, to calculate the standard deviation assuming a normal distribution...then look at departures on a z-score (# of SD) basis. That way, it would account for the fact that a -20F daily departure in summer is probably equivalent to a -35F daily departure in winter...as winter temps are more variable. But a simpler way of doing this is to just see which records seem out of place relative to surrounding days and/or time of year. What I found interesting is that there doesn't really seem to be a correlation between the easiest records to break vs. how old the record is. For example, some of the easiest records to break are from the 1800s. It just seems to be a coincidence that certain days just haven't had extreme cold or heat...probably a feature of small sample size. Even with records going back to 1870, only 150 max/min observations exist for a given day at ORD. Also, the most difficult record low temps to break are mainly focused on the absolute coldest temps on records, not so much time of year. This is due to UHI worsening over time. Regardless of early-season or late-season, I think the all-time low temp of -27 on 1/20/1985 is almost impossible to break. We saw what happened on January 30-31, 2019... ORD - daily MAX temp records 10 easiest to break (1) 58 on 2/16/1921 (2) 52 on 2/2/2020 (3) 55 on 1/30/1988 (4) 56 on 1/5/1890 (5) 57 on 12/22/1957 - only December day with a record high lower than 60 (6) 61 on 12/11/1949 (7) 70 on 11/12/1949 (8) 62 on 2/28/2016 (9) 60 on 12/17/1977 (10) 60 on 12/16/1984 10 most difficult to break (1) 67 on 1/25/1950 (2) 69 on 12/28/1984 (3) 68 on 12/31/1875 (4) 70 on 2/11/1999 (5) 78 on 11/14/1971 (6) 75 on 11/19/1930 (7) 71 on 12/3/1970 (8) 65 on 1/1/1876 (9) 65 on 1/7/2008 (10) 75 on 2/27/1976 ORD - daily MIN temp records 10 easiest to break (1) -9 on 1/13/1929 - only January day with a record low higher than -10 (2) -10 on 1/27/1955 (3) 21 on 11/1/1879 (4) 19 on 11/6/1991 (5) 4 on 12/5/2005 (6) -10 on 2/7/1875 (7) -7 on 12/30/1909 (8) 14 on 11/14/1916 (9) -7 on 12/17/1951 (10) -1 on 2/26/1963 10 most difficult to break (1) -25 on 12/24/1983 (2) -27 on 1/20/1985 (3) -26 on 1/10/1982 (4) -25 on 1/16/1982 (5) -1 on 11/23/1950 (6) -2 on 11/24/1950 (7) -14 on 12/9/1876 (8) 7 on 11/12/2019 (9) 3 on 11/17/1959 (10) -23 on 1/30/2019

It always amazes me how places in northern MN radiate, even if they're not in a valley or other drainage location. All that's needed is dry air and not being in a UHI setting - imagine that. The winds were fairly light at INL last night, but by no means calm. And, obviously, no snow cover. But it still dropped from 50F at 6 PM, to 32F at 10 PM.

Gotta love wikipedia Obscuration FU Smoke (French: Fumée) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/METAR

A lot of obs in the Pacific NW with smoke, due to the wildfires. Air Quality warnings over almost the entire NW. Here is Spokane WA, 1 mile visibility: METAR KGEG 151953Z 00000KT 1SM R21/6000VP6000FT FU SCT001 OVC025 22/07 A3018 RMK AO2 SLP212 FU SCT001 FU OVC025 T02170072

Maybe 1995-96? Chicago had its earliest freeze on record (ORD hit 32F on 9/22/1995)...then the next day was even more impressive with a low of 29F on 9/23/1995. Or, 1993-94? September 1993 was Chicago's coldest September on record, 59.2F vs. the 1981-2010 normal of 64.6F. Could have been lingering effects of Pinatubo?

^ Very impressive for Eau Claire...a 74-year-old record broken by 6 degrees. And it looks like Rockford IL will shatter the record low max for 9/9. Record is 63 set in 1924, but it will probably only hit 59-60 today.

As much as we're talking about Denver, it has been and will be even crazier in Laramie WY. High of 91F yesterday after it was in the 40s during the AM with haze/smoke from wildfires, then winds gusted out of the NW and it hit 90/3 at an hourly ob, RH 3%. Laramie is around 7,200 feet elevation. Expecting 4-8" of snow Mon-Tues, with a low near 0F on Tuesday night.

The 2-day temp drop at DEN later this weekend could be around 63 degrees, from 91F On Labor Day to the upper 20s at some point on Tuesday. So, probably won’t make the top 10, but very impressive for September, and early in the month at that. It hit 101F today, a new all-time September record high. There have been 10 occurrences of a 66+ degree 2-day temp drop at DEN, but none have occurred in September. They were all Oct-Feb. Largest 2-day temp drop on record is 76 degrees, from 58F on 12/13/2008 to -18F on 12/14/2008.

Earliest first measurable snow: 9/3/1961 (4.2”) Average first measurable snow: 10/18 Warmest temp on the day before a measurable snow: 92F on 9/12/1993

61-day streak of consecutive 100+ days ended today in Las Vegas. 2nd longest streak on record.

DFW hit 105 today, with a max HI of 115.

Agree...and the Midwest does too, of course mostly driven by latitude instead of distance to the coast...although there's some relative temperature moderation immediately downwind of the Great Lakes. As an example...STL hardly has winter, I-80 in Illinois is very limited winter, Chicago is in between (where you can run a good 2-3 week stretch of winter sometimes, with crap for the other 9 weeks), Madison WI is decent, then central WI northward is much more consistent winter. The gradient between 40N and 44N in the Midwest is pretty staggering in a typical winter; not too many miles as the crow flies. If you drew a contour map of Average Annual Snow Depth Days (SDDs) in the Midwest, you'd see a crazy gradient by latitude. Normal high temps in January range from around 40F at 40N, to 22F at 44N. Apologies if this is going a bit off-topic. Nice to be in this sub-forum with the banter and good discussion about winter...keep it up.

Brian D, keep us posted with obs this fall and winter, it’s great to have a new poster from the far north.

A bit dry in Las Vegas...it's currently 105/8, RH 3%.

Just brutal conditions in Phoenix the past few days. This is the time of year where the peak heat of summer is still lingering, with the monsoon moisture in play too. Yesterday it was 116/52 at 4pm. That’s a pretty high dew point, given the temperature. At 1am this morning, it was 101/63, and the low temp this morning was 93. Combined with the urban jungle landscape...yuck, yuck, and more yuck.

But it shouldn’t be political, and it shouldn’t need to be voted on. It should be a position that 98%+ of people align on. How could someone be against policies which benefit the environment and the greater good/community, and stops people from fighting one another? These should be obvious “table stakes” policies that every government adopts, with only the exact details in question. I really am not intending to be argumentative, or to make anything personal. I just don’t understand why people don’t focus on the greater good. Ironically, this approach probably benefits individuals too, more often than not. The current state of affairs in our country, both politically and socially, is cripplingly unhealthy. It’s very sad and must be improved. I guess I’m naive...

When saying that unabridged capitalism always works...who does it work for? It works for people who are more educated, have better skills, and build up money early in their lives to then take advantage of compound interest. I happen to be one of those people, and I suppose I should be thankful in some way...but does it work for the environment? No. Does it work for people with fewer skills and lower education? No. Capitalism with careful, consistent, and very strong environmental regulation with a big safety net is the happy medium, as it balances the preservation of freedom, protecting nature, and stops people from competing with each other. Unabridged capitalism is one reason we have such a toxic political culture and toxic social media, and horribly inequitable health care outcomes. People’s value should not be tied to their economic value. What is the societal and cultural benefit of a high GDP? Everyone assumes this is the ultimate goal...but why? I would trade a huge portion of the country’s GDP for a bit more of the “good” things that I listed above, spread across everyone. We have to stop fighting and competing with each other. Unabridged capitalism encourages this fighting, and it just isn’t good. Maybe it was good in the industrial revolution, but now other countries want to industrialize like the US did...but the global environment can’t handle it. I am not talking about climate change specifically; I am talking about air pollution, ocean pollution and the great Pacific Ocean garbage patch, plastics, habitat destruction, etc. These are the serious conversations that world leaders need to have...instead of encouraging policies which grow the economy at all costs. In order to strike the right balance, personal freedoms need to be restricted somewhat. Of course people don’t like that...and I understand that...but we have to concede that my and your individual best interest doesn’t always align with the earth’s best interest. Why are we so afraid to have this conversation at a national and global level??

I appreciate this conversation, as you have hit on a topic that is crucial to the future of our country and the world. Specifically, “individual freedom” vs. “the collective good”. In the bigger picture outside of the pandemic, I think it’s critical for people to get past the concept of “everyone is entitled to act certain ways, and that’s ok”. No, it’s not ok, in a lot of situations. And it’s unfortunate that those situations probably need to devalue personal freedom and choice...but if it’s for the greater good, I wish people were more accepting. Personal freedom can’t be used an excuse to stop good collective policies from being implemented. Two examples come to mind immediately: the environment and health care. Personal freedom must be reduced in order to protect the environment. And that is how it should be and must be. No one should have the right to start a business that creates too much pollution, regardless of how much “demand” there is for a product. Even if people disagree, the actions and policies of the government must align with this, or we are all screwed. We should significantly increase regulations protecting the environment, and reduce or eliminate all other regulations. A good compromise. Why do humans think we can control and mess up the environment, at the expense of other living things (including our fellow humans)? For health care, unfortunately some people are more unhealthy than others and therefore burden the system more than others. But, for the collective good, we should all chip in and pay the same for health care, if that approach leads to better outcomes for more people. I know there is an incentive to be healthier, in order to live a better life. But that should be a personal incentive, not an economic incentive. It is unfortunate that, in this country, everything comes down to money. Humans should not be thought of as consumers. There has to be a better approach, where every individual is valued regardless of their wealth. Of course this approach would likely lead to lower aggregate wealth and prosperity vs. today...but it can’t be much worse than the toxic culture we have today, where everyone fights against each other to claim their share by exploiting others. It’s just wrong. Masks vs. vaccines is even an interesting sub-debate. Personally, I think mandated vaccines crosses the line, as it violates individual freedom too much...because you are injecting a drug into your body. But masks are different, because they are not invasive. Everything is a balance. Personal freedom should be one consideration, but not THE consideration.

I keep my eye on Verkhoyansk in Russia, as a bellwether for Siberian cold/warmth. Later this week, they may get into the 90s, which would be all-time record heat for the month of June. Normals are only around 70/50. Verkhoyansk has the greatest range of any location on the planet, between all-time high and all-time low temps: 189 degrees (99F to -90F).