beavis1729

Yep. From MSP...interesting discussion. May be the official start of the Hoosier drought watch: Friday through Monday... A rare and intense heat wave is appearing likely Saturday through Monday. The late week trough will dive down into New England and the western Atlantic while another deep trough will reside over the West Coast, setting up an Omega pattern with strong ridging centered along the Mississippi Valley. Model guidance is unusually consistent at this range and thus forecast confidence is rather high. 12Z ECMWF ensemble Extreme Forecast Index from Monday suggests 90 percent of ensemble members exceed the 5-week centered model climate MaxT values in parts of the Upper Midwest. In other words, it`s already a near certainty 5 to 6 days out of near or record breaking temperatures. Even more impressive, the Shift of Tails (SOT) values of 1 to 2 suggest temperatures could be well above records. It is hard to get a SOT greater than 1 for temperatures. The NBM seems to be handling this event well already, even given the potential rarity of it. Have made minimal or no changes to the NBM. The heat dome begins to arrive Saturday when highs are expected to reach well into the 90s across western MN. By Sunday, widespread highs of 100 to 105 are forecast across MN, with 95 to 100 across WI. Shockingly, the NBM 5th percentile is forecasting highs around 100 across west central MN. In other words, 95 percent of the guidance that makes up the NBM is forecasting 100+ degrees. I cannot remember a time I`ve seen such high confidence of record/near record temperatures in this area on day 5.

Agree…and the point for MSP is 100+ for Sunday and Monday.

89/75/100 here, not a cloud in the sky

Low of 79 at MLI - warmest min on record for so early in the season, by far. Previous record was 79 on 6/27/1874 (!).

Make that 108…North Platte 108/36/101.

Yep. The dew at ORD has already increased by 14 degrees over the past 4 hours (49 to 63)...with much more to come. And the dew at IKK is up to 75.

This airmass is crazy for the heart of summer, but especially mid-June. Low this morning of 81 in Paducah KY, which ties the all-time June record warm min (81 on 6/23/2016). Low this morning of 83 in St. Louis MO, which is an all-time Jume record warm min (82 on 6/25/1988). And, it's already 86/78/98 at 8 AM. I'm assuming these mins will hold through midnight...which should be no problem given the capping there.

Key West is even more dramatic, especially in August when the water temps are at their warmest. Average high for Aug 12th: 91 Record high for Aug 12th: 95

Yep. Miami FL and Laredo TX are two of the more miserable places to live in the US from May-September. For Laredo, it's normal highs 95-105, lows 70-80, and high humidity due to proximity to the Rio Grande river. For Miami, it's normal highs 85-90, lows 75-80, and extremely high humidity. There's just no relief, day after day after day. Despite the sauna-like atmosphere, I actually think Miami is a bit more tolerable than Laredo due to lower daytime temps and frequent rainfall to take some of the edge off.

Yeah, I suppose...but, if so, that's a pretty scary climate to live in. Either way, the 108 is a new daily record (107 in 2014)...and the normal high is "only" 98. Records go back to 1901. And now Kingsville TX has a heat index of 112 (99/75).

Texas is baking today, especially for being somewhat early in the season. Highest temp I found so far is 108 at Cotulla, and highest heat index is 110 at Victoria (97/76).

The fact that 1980 is lower than "expected" on the list of warm summers could be driven by overnight low temps, which have warmed much more than daytime highs in recent years...likely due to UHI and climate change. Plus, I believe 1980 was dry overall...which could have led to cooler overnight lows (all else being equal).

Rockford 80/35, RH 19%. Very rare to see RH < 20% in Illinois.

Waukegan dropped to 38 this morning, Rockford 39, and 41 here. 26 in Rhinelander WI; missed the record low by 1F.

Low of 30.

It's always interesting to see lists like this in the Spring for Chicago...as the dates are always old. This is because the official Chicago obs were right on the lake in the olden days. The official site moved to O'Hare (ORD) in 1980. Needless to say, it makes Chicago weather records a bit misleading and difficult to interpret. It probably won't matter much in this case anyway, as there will be a midnight high around 60 at ORD.

If Denver gets more than 3.8", it will be their 3rd largest snowstorm on record for so late in the season. They had 10.7" on May 25-26, 1950 and 5.6" on 5/29/1975...which are both insane. Latest measurable snow was 0.5" on 6/5/1953. Possibly even more impressive - if the temp drops below 30 this weekend, it will be the coldest ever for so late in the season. It was 30 on 6/2/1951, but has never been colder than 30 after May 19th. Records go back 150 years, to 1872.

The 96 in Traverse City is insane. The low of 74 yesterday morning in Rockford barely held on through 1AM …so a new all-time warmest min temp record for May was set. Old record 73 on 5/22/1905.

Ha. If the forecast said "clear" with isolated showers, I could see your point...but it said "mostly clear"...which leaves some wiggle room. Just semantics, I guess.

"Mostly" has a probability and/or coverage element to it. My interpretation of "mostly clear" is that it's expected to be clear 80-95% of the time at a particular location. So, it could still be cloudy and/or rainy for the other 5-20% of the time. As I understand it, that could mean either (1) a 5-20% chance of any clouds/rain occurring in the region, or (2) it will definitely be cloudy/rainy in the region, but with only 5-20% coverage.

Yep - ORD's low was 74 this morning...same as yesterday. And today's low should hold through 1 AM tonight - although dews may come down a bit later, so it could be close. Old record high mins: May 11th: 70, set in 1881 May 12th: 66, set in 1956 Not often you break a daily record by 8F, especially with a POR of 150 years. And Rockford's high of 94 yesterday is the hottest day so early in the season in the past 88 years (it hit 96 on 5/9/1934). Even more amazing - if Rockford's low temp this morning (74) holds, it will set a new May monthly record for the warmest min. Current record is 73 on 5/22/1905. In fact, there have only been 5 May days in Rockford's history with a daily min of 70+. With all that said, I think there's a decent chance (1 in 4?) of dropping below 74 prior to 1 AM.

Yep, good point. It’s 90/73/100 here, just before noon…unbelievable.

Assuming it holds through midnight (which should be no problem), ORD and RFD both shattered their warmest min on record for so early in the season. Low temps this morning, May 11th: - ORD 74; previous earliest low temp this warm was 74 on 5/19/1911. - RFD 72; previous earliest low temp this warm was 72 on 5/18/1996. Meanwhile, it has been very cold out west. West Yellowstone MT dropped to 7 yesterday morning, and Eureka CA (right on the coast) dropped to 37.

Yuck - incredible to see a dew of 74 on May 10th. 88/70/95 here.

Rockford could set record warm mins for 4 consecutive days. Here are the records, going back to 1906: 5/10: 65 in 1979 (today's low 68 so far) 5/11: 63 in 2011 5/12: 64 in 2004 5/13: 63 in 1991