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About ariof

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
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  • Location:
    Cambridegeport, People's Republic
  • Interests
    Bikes, skis, snow, transportation.

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  1. Time to start a thread for Monday? Or wait for the rest of the 18Z or 00Z suites?
  2. I mean, I'd go with Arthur, but at that point we're arguing semantics.
  3. 1014-982 from 234-252. It's Bombogenesis baby! Over the benchmark, a bit progressive but still painting 1.5-2" QPF over EMA. Could rival 2013/2015 storms for accumulations with a decent ratio. Given this winter, it will probably be 45 and raining.
  4. Would at least do some work on the drought (because we're still in a drought, right?).
  5. You forgot to mention pasties. Another reason to fall in love with the UP.
  6. I think they're mostly done for the next week or so. The rains have been good for the reservoirs, but what they really need is a ton of snowpack in the Sierra to keep the charged through the summer. The Northern Sierra are now 10" ahead of the record, 218% or normal. 15" in a week will do that.
  7. 2011 … Cali got hit hard in December, then it switched off there and we got hit hard Jan in to early Feb (something like 48" Jan 7–Feb 2, which seemed like a lot before 2015; cold, too, BOS didn't go above 40 for a month, below 42 Jan 2–Feb 14). Then the switch flipped back and we got pretty warm and dry while California snowed for two months straight (Squaw topped out at 810" at 8000 ft, 400 of which fell Feb 14 to April 7, so about 50"/week during that time; their 9-day total right now is a paltry 153" up that high, and that includes some rain, above 10,000 feet in the Sierra is probably sitting close to 20 feet). Anyway, based on that data point, this pattern can switch around. Who knows.
  8. GFS prints out 12" of QPF for KTRK (probably more up at the Summit) in the next 7 days. Average Jan precip for KTRK is 5.3" and I doubt they've hit that recently in any month.
  9. In December ORD had a 6.4 and a 7.8 this year …
  10. Lock it in. Norluns always verify five days out. Every. Single. Time.
  11. Thoughts on 12z CMC (if it were to verify)? Seems to really pop a secondary off the coast for Tuesday and track it over ACK, but only spares the mountains of Maine and north the rain (although locks in mid-30s for nearly everyone). Ice storm potential? Or is the antecedent airmass too crap?
  12. 60 miles east and 2000 feet higher, Washington is at 68" and has an outside shot of 100 given this storm (normal is 45).
  13. +1. Pretty good weenie run on the GFS, TT prints out 1-3' over 10 days most anywhere north of MA and over 1000'. (Better than 70˚ this time last year.)
  14. Look, this isn't an argument. Yes it is! No it isn't!
  15. A nice move back from the ledge after the 12z …