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wxsniss

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About wxsniss

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBOS
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  • Location:
    Brookline, MA

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  1. January 29/30 snow event

    Yeah this was the post I was alluding to this morning. The frustrating thing as others mentioned is that models don't do a good job of translating this into surface sensible weather. I went back and compared the H7 depiction of multiple NAM and GFS runs from Sunday and Monday... some have that H7 closed low over SE SNE, some have it farther east or none at all... and there is no correlation at all with storm total qpf. There is also no good depiction of the 2 separate bands going on overnight. So when we get multiple models (NAM, RGEM) within 12 hours depicting 0.0 qpf... we are inclined to dismiss synoptic features that would suggest otherwise. The other thing that threw me off last night... upper levels were very dry. Like H5-H8 had RH values 30-60% around 7pm. (remember TBlizz made a post about the close Temp/Dewpoint, and people replied that you need to look at upper levels / DGZ which was really dry)... so I was expecting those bone dry NAM/RGEM runs would be correct. In a time when computer automation is replacing human skill all over the place... and sometimes it feels like meteorology (on TV, NWS, and here) is reduced to model qpf meta-analysis... we get these examples (this season feels like it has had more than usual) reminding that computer models have a ways to go and human skill is still essential.
  2. January 29/30 snow event

    My first post on this storm will be to admit I underestimated it... from NWS maps and almost all TV/public forecasters, seems I was not alone. We all sometimes rely on models too much. Awesome stuff this morning, great flakes and decent rates. Also definitely has a feel of ocean enhancement here in Boston. When I get a chance later today, I want to go back and see what models had a best handle of these features (from Box AFD): "For much of the overnight, the precip was separated into two distinct bands the furthest W, with an area of deformation associated with a weak closed H7 low. While the further E was associated with the H92-H85 LLJ convergence. These two have finally joined forces as the H7 low shifted E and is now a focused f-gen band across mainly SE MA and RI." I know ORH and CTRain and others mentioned the H7 low, and Ray mentioned it on his blog. Curious what models had a best handle, not just qpf output (which generally was terrible even 0z last night) but the evolution of banding features we had overnight.
  3. Blizzard of '78

    Great find. $75 / individual, $130 / pair. Day before Super Bowl. I'll let you know if I'm in as it gets closer.
  4. January 4-6 Coastal Bomb Observations/Nowcast

    One of the more impressive videos showing extent of Ginxy's surge and flooding in Seaport today... feet of water on main roads... how is this not getting more national attention?: https://www.facebook.com/ABCNews/videos/10156749220678812/
  5. January 4-6 Coastal Bomb Observations/Nowcast

    Yeah Ray you did really well with this. Aside from calling this a while ago, you were bullish and correct when usually reliable models (RGEM!) were out to lunch.
  6. January 4-6 Coastal Bomb Observations/Nowcast

    Last thoughts signing off... (storm's not over... we probably continue 1/2-1" / hr until 8pm at least inside 495 with these dissipating bands) Wow what an amazing storm! Sunday there was talk of maybe a few inches... and this ramped up into a 12-18" widespread blizzard. Awesome. So much I don't understand about the mechanics. Since when do we get a miller A originating in the Bahamas that stacks and occludes off NC/VA and yet continues to deepen to 950s and jackpots SNE? Anomalous warm core dynamics that I still don't understand completely and file away as astonishing rare feats like Sandy. Kudos to NWS with the forecast (and awesome AFDs)... I was nervous about their widespread 12-18 but that was spot on.
  7. January 4-6 Coastal Bomb Observations/Nowcast

    Continued thoughts signing off... 2) Wonder what you all think about model post-mortem... I thought NAM won here, big time. Sure it had it's usual apesh*t run yesterday, but overall, it was actually the closest verifying than the others. Euro was absolutely lagging. RGEM / CMC were atrocious. Obviously we're not gonna crown NAM as the new king... this speaks more to the nature of this system than model dependability.
  8. January 4-6 Coastal Bomb Observations/Nowcast

    Some thoughts signing off and dragging myself back to reality... 1) This was a blizzard. Objectively. KBOS 042154Z 32027G34KT 1/4SM R04R/2600V3000FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV005 M03/M03 A2885 RMK AO2 PK WND 32042/2141 SLP770 P0002 T10281033 $ KBOS 042101Z 33023G37KT 1/4SM R04R/2200V2600FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV007 M01/M02 A2886 RMK AO2 PK WND 33037/2055 P0000 T10111017 $ KBOS 042054Z 33026G36KT 1/4SM R04R/2000V2200FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV007 M01/M02 A2886 RMK AO2 PK WND 34044/2026 SLP771 P0007 60024 T10111017 56080 $ KBOS 042039Z 33026G36KT 1/4SM R04R/2200V2600FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV007 M01/M02 A2887 RMK AO2 PK WND 34044/2026 P0006 T10111017 $ KBOS 042015Z 35027G38KT 1/4SM R04R/1400V1600FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV005 M01/M02 A2888 RMK AO2 PK WND 35041/1956 P0003 T10111017 $ KBOS 041954Z 34027G39KT 1/8SM R04R/1000V1200FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV004 M02/M02 A2890 RMK AO2 PK WND 35039/1944 SLP785 P0011 T10171022 $ KBOS 041923Z 34023G36KT 1/8SM R04R/1000V1200FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV004 M02/M03 A2894 RMK AO2 PK WND 34036/1916 P0007 T10221028 $ KBOS 041854Z 34018G31KT 1/4SM R04R/1600V1800FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV007 M02/M03 A2899 RMK AO2 PK WND 35034/1831 PRESFR SLP816 P0006 T10221028 $ KBOS 041833Z 35023G34KT 1/4SM R04R/2000V2200FT +SN BLSN FZFG FEW005 OVC009 M02/M03 A2902 RMK AO2 PK WND 35034/1831 PRESFR P0005 T10221028 $ KBOS 041810Z 35022G29KT 1/8SM R04R/1400V2400FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV005 M02/M03 A2906 RMK AO2 PK WND 34029/1810 PRESFR P0004 T10221028 $ KBOS 041754Z 36018G33KT 1/8SM R04R/0600V0800FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV004 M02/M03 A2909 RMK AO2 PK WND 36036/1714 SLP851 P0011 60033 T10221028 11022 21044 56126 $ KBOS 041745Z 35022G30KT 1/8SM R04R/0800V1600FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV004 M02/M03 A2909 RMK AO2 PK WND 36036/1714 PRESFR P0009 T10221028 $ KBOS 041736Z 35021G31KT 1/4SM R04R/1400V1800FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV005 M02/M03 A2911 RMK AO2 PK WND 36036/1714 P0008 T10221028 $ KBOS 041719Z 36023G36KT 1/4SM R04R/1000V1600FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV004 M02/M03 A2912 RMK AO2 PK WND 36036/1714 P0004 T10221028 $ KBOS 041654Z 36024G34KT 1/16SM R04R/1200V1600FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV003 M02/M03 A2916 RMK AO2 PK WND 36037/1618 SLP874 P0014 T10221028 $ KBOS 041620Z 36026G37KT 1/8SM R04R/1000V1400FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV003 M03/M03 A2924 RMK AO2 PK WND 36037/1618 P0004 T10281033 $ KBOS 041609Z 36028G33KT 1/8SM R04R/1400V1800FT VCTS +SN BLSN FZFG VV004 M03/M04 A2926 RMK AO2 PK WND 36033/1603 PRESFR P0002 T10281039 $ KBOS 041559Z 36025G36KT 1/4SM R04R/1600V2200FT VCTS +SN BLSN FZFG VV006 M03/M04 A2928 RMK AO2 PK WND 36033/1556 LTG DSNT W PRESFR P0002 T10331039 $ KBOS 041554Z 36025G36KT 1/4SM R04R/1600V2400FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV006 M03/M04 A2930 RMK AO2 PK WND 36036/1553 LTG DSNT W PRESFR SLP922 P0003 T10331039 $ KBOS 041522Z 36021G27KT 1/4SM R04R/2400V3500FT +SN FZFG VV009 M04/M04 A2941 RMK AO2 PK WND 35027/1517 PRESFR P0001 T10391044 $ KBOS 041454Z 35018G24KT 1/2SM R04R/2400V2800FT SN FZFG VV011 M04/M05 A2947 RMK AO2 PK WND 36030/1425 SLP978 P0005 60005 T10391050 58044 $ KBOS 041440Z 35017G26KT 1/2SM R04R/2600V3500FT SN FZFG VV010 M04/M05 A2948 RMK AO2 PK WND 36030/1425 P0003 T10391050 KBOS 041420Z 36019G28KT 1/4SM R04R/1600V2600FT +SN FZFG VV008 M04/M05 A2949 RMK AO2 PK WND 35028/1418 P0002 T10441050
  9. January 4-6 Coastal Bomb Observations/Nowcast

    That's ridiculous. What criteria were not met? I assume wind? Widespread obs were <1/4 mile visibility for hours. These seemed to match or surpass the Feb 9 2017 blizzard which was shorter duration and officially met criteria.
  10. January 4-6 Coastal Bomb Observations/Nowcast

    My wife (who is way too patient with this obsession, including Feb 2015) decided to grant me 3 storms of my choice / winter to geek out over undisturbed. This was #1 / 3 this winter. Of course at the same time, I'm the go to guy when her (and my) co-workers want to know what to expect.
  11. January 4-6 Coastal Bomb Observations/Nowcast

    Looking east down Seaport Boulevard... completely flooded
  12. January 4-6 Coastal Bomb Observations/Nowcast

    Wow... 17z HRRR puts down another .75-1" qpf after 1pm [edit: in eastern SNE]... maybe the RAP was onto something
  13. January 4-6 Coastal Bomb Observations/Nowcast

    By the Marriott Long Wharf on Atlantic Avenue
  14. January 4-6 Coastal Bomb Observations/Nowcast

    Wow at the coastal flooding in Boston, Revere, Scituate
  15. January 4-6 Coastal Bomb Observations/Nowcast

    Welcome! Stay, share, post, learn! Yeah Boston metro has been getting crushed since 11am, easily 2"/hr+ rates.
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