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About wxsniss

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  • Location:
    Brookline, MA

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  1. It's all good. There is definite value to doing this with gusto. And it's different from basing a call on wishcast or reverse psychology, and it's different from calling for Feb 78 on the Cape every week, all of which gets predictable and tiring. Making substantiated calls with confidence and then learning from our mistakes is exactly how we get a little better every year. I personally also respect that you actually put up numbers rather than just shifting innuendo. Most don't do that. In any case, the personalities and characters here are also part of why we return year after year. I still to this day miss conversations with Messenger, someone I've never actually met. Like you said, while we inure to other things in life, somehow this never gets old. And there's a real void when the season ends.
  2. I was wondering that to myself based on some of the high-res guidance last night... wouldn't it be ironic if parts of southeast MA ended up with significantly more than Boston metro / north shore as the CCB compacted southeast.
  3. Ray one suggestion as a regular lurker: ease up on the bluster. There were lots of posts Thursday and Friday along the lines of the "conservative call, but I prefer the correct call" reply to SR Airglow, "a good mechanic looks over and under the hood", mocking some TV mets anticipating they would sink with their conservative forecasts. It can be annoying, and even amusing when it's wrong. The conservative calls Thursday were well-reasoned and proved to be correct. Your calls were also well-reasoned, and you saw I was up late last night thinking it was possible after that doozy 0z RGEM. And it was extremely close. Had 800-825 layer cooled by 9z as some models had it last night (rather than 14z-15z in reality), Boston / northwest could easily be in a 4-8 / 6-12 range. Don't take this the wrong way. You're obviously very skilled and experienced, and I know most here could not pull off the seasonal forecasts that you make (certainly I could not). But the one consistent "golden nugget" season after season is that this is often an extremely hard science that is better approached with humility. Our currency here is who is first to be correct, so there's a lure to be confident when your forecast is earlier or counter to consensus. But even the pro's fail and they move on. I am only a hobbyist, but to echo Will, it's the nature of this business. Harv's 2-4" for Boston / 4-8" for you was too high. NWS currently still has 4-6" for Boston / 6-8" for you and like many of us flinched with the 0z suite and put up 6-8" / 8-12". TWC at one point I think had 12-18" or something stupid for eastern MA. And they are all paid infinitely more than you or I to make an accurate forecast. I think even Hillbilly Weather guy was wrong.
  4. Your local climo has definitely improved from your old neighborhood! Ground and car tops whitened but definitely < 1" here. Elevation and further inland obviously critical in this setup.
  5. Not that anyone was expecting anything remotely close to that once-in-a-lifetime event, but it was an apt thread title Ginx: Millennial kid of April 97... tons of social media hype... none of the meat and substance of the original: Beacon Hill, April 1, 1997
  6. Best snowfall yet as better echoes building back in. All I want is a white ground. Box letting her down easy:
  7. Also wonder if that sampling has seasonal biases... NAM probably would score really well if we looked only at April snowstorms lol
  8. Another flag that jbenedet and others discussed, the maritime influence skunking the boundary layer here and further north, so no decent cold pool to advect from up north... And now that dynamics are fizzling for dynamical cooling, we're actually going back to rain. The upshot: not even a 15 minute window of spectacular spring snow. We'll see how much further northwest these echoes can make it but not looking great. Box 1014am: Very impressive wcb/moisture plume into eastern Massachusetts. This will continue to pivot north a bit more thru 15z-16z and then begin to pull seaward toward 18z and especially exiting offshore by 21z. Thus heaviest precip occurring now thru 16zish then beginning to weaken. So as precip changes from rain to sleet to snow over northeast Massachusetts the other dilemma becomes surface temps. Strong east-northeast winds has flooded the coastal plain with maritime airmass with temps in the mid 30s. Upstream across southern New Hampshire temps only 33/34 so not a lot of cold air advection available. Cooling will have to come from vigorous upward motion (dynamical cooling) and melting snow initially (diabatic cooling). However some of the snow potential is being lost to the transition of sleet along with snow not accumulating on paved surfaces, reducing impacts. Thus it's a small window for snow to accumulate across northeast Massachusetts including the greater Boston area. Therefore will downgrade the Winter Storm Warning for the greater Boston area into coastal Essex County with an additional 1-3"...especially on non paved surfaces. Other forecast challenge will be as precip intensity slackens later this morning and early afternoon, snow and sleet across northeast Massachusetts into greater Boston area may flip back to rain. Overall greatest impacts today will be north and west of I-495 across the higher terrain of the Worcester Hills.
  9. Yeah I posted Thurs-Fri I was leaning conservative for Boston, but that single 0z RGEM run last night threw me off... > 1" qpf in the CCB this morning 12z-18z... had the makings of a positive bust from a well-timed spring-time bomb. Looks like it was placing the surface low too far west and dynamics were over-estimated. Odd blip for RGEM 12 hour forecast qpf-wise, and it went back down at 6z. Still terrible snow growth. Pretty sure Boston does not even make 2" the way this is trucking out of here.
  10. Also looked like a struggle for control of the wheel last night... that map literally jumped back and forth 3 times in less than 3 hours
  11. HRRR washes out that 825-850 tongue in next hour, let's see how that translates You guys have a source for hourly text soundings? I use Twisterdata RAP soundings but hard to specify an exact location
  12. Box was still bullish this morning:
  13. Yeah if we waste the next 2 hours of 30-40dbz returns on this kitchen sink, we'll struggle to even see 2-4"
  14. Varies from 20/80 to 60/40 here in Brookline near Coolidge Corner with cat paws mixed in... should be cranking here in next 30 minutes
  15. Doesn't look to crazy, though not very dense populations... that's 100% of customers in Plainfield https://www.eversource.com/psnh/outage/outagemap.aspx