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About wxsniss

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    Brookline, MA

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  1. Just looked at GFS... terrible 12 hour trend... big jumps in wrong direction... whatever new data was sampled (looks like energy entering BC) is not helping And big changes... in 12 hours, went from "oh so close to something big that is well within guidance margin of error" to "very unfavorable"
  2. Over, no. Less likely, yes. H5 handling has been very inconsistent, though we consistently get crappy solutions. I'd give this until at least Thurs 0z to show hints of improvement. Maintaining the status quo obviously won't do it.
  3. yeah... and less digging northern stream... and more progressive trough... on both 18z GFS and 18z Euro H5 and trough orientation on 12z GFS looked most promising to me, but for a surprise to remain a possibility, these ingredients need to at least hold, not worsen
  4. First post since Dec 2... haven't seen any compelling threats + crazy busy at work... thanks for great discussion here by the usual players as always. But I'm more on guard for a surprise on this one... good H5 setup, and conducive to an abrupt jump rather than gradual evolution of solutions. If all you had was this H5 map, you'd anticipate cyclogenesis ~ under that green circle... the trough is tilting nearly neutral, the flow is not compressed and there's room: Instead 24 hrs earlier this lead energy is stealing the show, purple circle: I know overwhelming majority of OP and ENS guidance focuses on that lead energy shunting this well OTS, while the lagging stronger SWs end up doing nothing, but I'd remain vigilant for a surprise on this one, at least through 12z Thursday guidance.
  5. Yeah Jay, Fella, we could use it, we’ve been shanked with this stationary CF for hours now RGEM has 6+ in Bos, Essex Co, South Shore, heaviest 3-8am
  6. Just catching up, long day unable to post... Yeah when these Messenger fades east begin on guidance, they can be relentless despite some hopeful guidance... we’ll miss the meat of the CCB That said, we are getting decent snowfall under minimal or no radar returns... low level inflow. An additional 2-4 seems very doable in most of eastern SNE... 0z NAM says even more... highest amounts northeast MA and south shore
  7. True! More accurate: biggest Tues hit in last 6 NAM runs
  8. Hold the obits... 6z NAM has its biggest hit yet for eastern SNE Tuesday Widespread ~6-12 ORH east SNE, up into sNH and ME
  9. Yeah 0z Euro round 2 more like 2-4" rather than 6-16" on 12z run... suggests the fading trend is real I'll leave the possibility for more with deformation further west and vortmaxes hard to pin down, and UK still huge, but it's tenuous Sometimes these Messenger fades don't relent once they start
  10. What an ugly game... love the AB tweet Doubt my 3-6" call for metro Boston round 1 verified, certainly not in city proper, saw 1.2" 7:16pm KBOS 0z GFS wasn’t bad at all, better than 18z. Tenuous potential but it’s still there.
  11. 0z NAM maybe a slight tick east vs. 18z but still a good hit for eSNE, really nails outer Cape... and so close to a much bigger hit 24+ hours away... no further clarity or definite trend re: round 2 at this point
  12. Precarious setup and a tough forecast. It may very well capture too far east or regress to the diffuse weaker solutions, but I wouldn't nail the coffin from just a single 18z Euro run, especially after the entire 12z suite was showing a bigger hit.
  13. As if hearing all the discussion turning to "round 2", 18z NAM goes ballistic colder and heavier tonight
  14. Agree, complex and precarious. Something in how the vortmaxes are handled and how the different lows consolidate made multiple members of 12z suite jump... we're now seeing SLP to 970s by 9z-12z Tues (deepest and closest we've seen yet) on NAM/RGEM/Euro, whereas in general prior guidance has shown a meandering occluded 980s low. The WAA tonight has gotten most of the attention, but real powder keg potential for eastern areas comes Mon night-Tues. It's precarious and guidance is just catching on. What regions benefit most, I'm still uncertain. eastern SNE / NH / ME I think have best shot. And for those who are considering now "just hours before go-time", the more relevant and distinct process of surface low consolidation and ULL capture is > 24 hours away.