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wxsniss

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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    Brookline, MA

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  1. wxsniss

    Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

    I actually thought 12z GFS is a tic southeast, less amped... i.e., a small but definite step towards Euro / UK And not warmer than 6z run
  2. wxsniss

    Winter Begins Jan 20th AWT

    Actually quite steady... 0z Euro may be a tick warmer vs. 12z, noise at this range The only major model that came west at 0z was the NAM in its clown range... Euro, UK, GFS all ticked east / steady and bring SNE into the bigger snows, along with CNE/NNE. Nice to see these runs hone in now that our southern stream system is entering the West coast. Decent consensus to open with 6-12" in much of SNE pike north, 10-16" CNE, and can adjust up (more likely) or down as we get closer (returning from a conference in CA, haven't been able to post... hope to bring some good juju to the disco... and will be in Stowe this weekend!)
  3. wxsniss

    January 2019 Discussion

    0z UK a clear tick north vs. 12z (but still way OTS)
  4. wxsniss

    January 2019 Discussion

    Yeah FV3-GFS has consistently brought the system close or even inside the BM for at least 6 straight runs I assume it does not generally have better verification scores vs. GFS, but this will be an interesting case test
  5. wxsniss

    January 2019 Discussion

    Wonder if those later / closer EPS members are related to that lagging piece of PVA shooting down behind the southern stream as we saw on the 18z GFS... a somewhat different evolution (we've seen several in the past 48 hours) that could give us more impact, delayed but not denied... As we've all said... these big H5 features are still very much in flux and there's plenty of time for this to trend better or worse
  6. wxsniss

    January 2019 Discussion

    Yeah funny, this run exactly counters what I had just posted... The scooter streak is weaker, allowing the southern system to get more north. Later, there is some interaction via a very weirdly shaped trough. That lagging northern stream energy is disjointed from the rest of the system that is already OTS. Strange run. Different evolution... lots of different ways to get 0 impact.
  7. wxsniss

    January 2019 Discussion

    Exactly the ceiling I'm expecting... if you look at the biggest hits of yore (e.g. GFS 0z 1/8; GFS 0z 1/7 was the blizzard run), even those were positively tilted to neutral at best. Any run showing SNE impacts has had some degree of phasing. I think that's our best hope, unless somehow the southern stream energy comes in on steroids which I'm not expecting. The overall evolution and handling of that northern stream energy has been screwy... let's see if we get better stability in the next few days. At 5 days away, there is plenty of time for fluctuation, better or worse.
  8. wxsniss

    January 2019 Discussion

    Do we want to avoid it or do we want to dance with it? Deeper digging and game is on, I think.
  9. wxsniss

    January 2019 Discussion

    Anyone know if NARR on e-wall PSU is down because of the government shutdown? The NOAA links say "not available at this time due to a lapse in appropriation"
  10. wxsniss

    January 2019 Discussion

    Just glanced at Euro... these H5 depictions seem to vary significantly from run to run, more so than usual for D5-6 lead. Particularly with handling of the northern stream vort. In any case, a slightly better stream interaction and this system tracks so much closer than 0z. Plenty of time for improvement. And more importantly... 12z EPS looked beautiful in the 300-360 range. Burgeoning +PNA/-AO. It's way out there, but for a change it's robust and definitely there.
  11. wxsniss

    January 2019 Discussion

    Exactly. It’s the strongest signal yet this winter, but as stated yesterday, consider Jan 13-14 a beta release. If GEFS have a clue, the assembly line is really optimized starting Jan 20’s. Also would not chase run to run swings. 0z GFS was very good. What’s curious about these 6 hr swings is the massive changes at H5 for the weekend. Euro yesterday 12z had this abrupt change too. Maybe it’s a pattern transition, but something is causing H5 progs to be relatively unstable.
  12. wxsniss

    January 2019 Discussion

    Exactly... this specific EC run objectively fails the "which of these is not like the others" at H5 and lack of northern stream energy. "The others" being EC 0z/12z yesterday runs, as well as GFS and GGEM. One critical lacking ingredient is the northern stream digging vorticity. If that was better, the H5 gradient is sufficiently decompressed as Will and others posted for a more amplified solution. This weekend may be the "beta" product until the PNA improves. If GEFS have any clue, the assembly line will be optimized beginning Jan 20's.
  13. wxsniss

    January 2019 Discussion

    Maybe this run is more correct, but that's a pretty big change at H5 compared to 0z (and yesterday's 12z) runs. Northern stream basically a no-show on this run, so this is DOA even with a better western ridge.
  14. wxsniss

    January 2019 Discussion

    Totally agree about fast zonal flow generally mitigating threats, and looking at H5 you'd think this has more likelihood of trending progressive or sheared if anything. Most on here don't take these D6 tracks literally or with any strong confidence. But a strong vort max can itself buckle the flow. And seeing this signal on multiple runs of all the main globals (Euro, GFS, GGEM) gets my attention. I have little confidence in track, but I think this is the most promising signal we've had for a storm so far this season, whether it is OTS or not. Personally I'll be at a conference in CA next weekend, but I'm rooting for our hood (as well as a little playoff snow magic of yore).
  15. wxsniss

    January 2019 Discussion

    FYP Simply put, Jan 13-14 has the best cross-model signal for a big one I've seen so far this winter... And regardless of how that specific storm unfolds, the stout PNA on GEFS after Jan 20 (great longterm outlook Ray) might be enough to pull me out of hibernating lurker mode... fantastic teleconnection discussions all.
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