Jump to content

wxsniss

Members
  • Content count

    4,419
  • Joined

  • Last visited

About wxsniss

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KBOS
  • Gender
    Not Telling
  • Location:
    Brookline, MA

Recent Profile Visitors

1,771 profile views
  1. wxsniss

    March Disco

    I know, I’m just being tongue-in-cheek Though even if dismissed as part of a spray of outcomes on those models, what adds more intrigue to the underdog/coup narrative is that Euro has not shown a big hit once, iirc FV3 is now 6+ intensifying runs in a row now... this could either be a splashy debut or more evidence it has no business replacing the GFS
  2. wxsniss

    March Disco

    Not just FV3... CMC had it 0z Mar 13 run and also before I think... Icon had a couple hits... this would be a coup for all the ignored deplorable models
  3. wxsniss

    March Disco

    Yeah you could see this run failing early on, at least in an outcome similar to the FV3... compare at Wed 12z: the s/w (which on the FV3 is responsible for Mar 21-22) gets squashed under the ridge and is hung back over Nebraska, whereas on the FV3 it's already to Missouri/Indiana and trekking towards the coast What's interesting as you point out is the trough dives much farther SW into the Lakes... if this continues, we could still get a big hit with slightly different timing than the FV3 (for example, energy diving through Lakes phasing with the hung back energy hung emerging from Nebraska) Not much confidence, but the upper level setup definitely warrants watching
  4. wxsniss

    March Disco

    Diving s/w looks a little more stout thru 18z Monday Another potential thing to watch is the interaction with the s/w over Montana / Wyoming... the FV3 has minimal interaction and so our diving s/w continues under the trough to the east coast vs. 0z (less so 6z) Euro runs have much more interaction and our critical diving s/w gets delayed in a closed H5 low over Nebraska
  5. wxsniss

    March Disco

    Yeah, I think this is it circled... at 6z Sunday using FV3... so the responsible shortwave is on-board as of this morning... let's see if models today abruptly crystallize around something interesting as a result...
  6. wxsniss

    March Disco

    Regarding that elusive appropriately timed / strong enough shortwave in the otherwise favorable setup with meridionally amplified flow along with some relaxation off the northeast coast... That shortwave responsible for Mar 21-22 should be riding up the ridge and entering the BC coast in the next 24 hours... not sure how much the density of data input changes over land, but we *could* be seeing a bunch of models abruptly jump towards a better solution today into Monday...
  7. wxsniss

    The Little Storm That Could - March 3/4

    Yep... though in March, this event was the "first child" of winter storms for many of us in SNE.
  8. wxsniss

    The Little Storm That Could - March 3/4

    For sure... I couldn't find 24-hour snowfall maps (vs. total snowfall that is hard to distinguish from preceding Fri-Sat event) to capture how (badly) Euro and others did days before. The consensus Friday was that Sunday would be a snow-to-rain mess for most of SNE. I mean, look at this... 72 hour (!) prog of 12z Euro... and ironically, the GFS Friday for the same time:
  9. wxsniss

    NE snow event March 4th

    Pretty happy with this. The distribution was fairly accurate with the jack zone along the BOS-PVD-NWCT corridor. Obviously I was too low in that area. I posted the mesos in the other thread... there was some evidence from the RGEM that this would be an open wave on steroids, but only in the last 6 hours did the other guidance and hi-res models really come aboard. I think I was also all a little snake-bitten from Saturday and was initially waving caution flags Saturday evening. Synoptically, this felt relatively simple... an open wave marching straight northeast with intense 850-700 fronto painting a jack zone at the northwest edge of an 850 low. Other than advance of the mix line, there were no smaller features like far northwest deformation bands pivoting over an area or coastal fronts with enough residency to need more nuance.
  10. wxsniss

    The Little Storm That Could - March 3/4

    Some post-storm analysis of guidance... nothing really groundbreaking here, we all had a sense the mesos did excellent on this I thought a visual summary of the guidance history could supplement our anecdotal / tired recollection. Major caveat is that this uses only a 10:1 snowfall map. I considered using qpf but I did not think that the captured end result we care about as well (e.g. R/S lines which played a factor), and I do not have a qpf map other than the digital accumulation maps. Also, not sure why but PivotalWeather shreds the 12k NAM 6z/18z runs. As you can see: • Mesos were indeed excellent. 12k NAM / Euro may have been the best in the final 12 hours. • 12k / 3k NAM had the best jack zone of the pike region. Euro / RGEM was always too far south. • GFS was terrible. Way too dry throughout. Completely useless. • ECMWF characteristically made slow incremental changes in the same direction towards the best solution. • RGEM was first to latch on to widespread double digits. Not redeeming a terrible performance most of the season.
  11. wxsniss

    The Little Storm That Could - March 3/4

    Yeah I was gonna say he will go back to update the 708am measurement later this afternoon... So so frustrating Saw this on weather.gov, 10.6 at Logan... wonder if it’s been updated somewhere... not on the PNS... and who knows anymore, Deer Island, Logan...
  12. wxsniss

    The Little Storm That Could - March 3/4

    It sure does. I was gonna write up a post-analysis and assess my forecast map later today. RGEM (inside 12 hours? I'll check), NAM, RPM (last 2 runs), HRRR (when it was within range) crushed an event for once. Even Euro was way too conservative in its 12z/18z runs just before onset, though it had a pretty good distribution. GFS was a disaster even on Sun 18z and only had a clue once the event was already underway Mon 0z... but I correct myself, it's purpose is only for under 6 hour guidance.
  13. wxsniss

    The Little Storm That Could - March 3/4

    Shit obs. And by the book, they do not wipe before each measurement. Technically not even the "airport"... that poster earlier said ground crews at Logan were reported foot+
  14. wxsniss

    The Little Storm That Could - March 3/4

    I guess our KBOS measurement woes have not resolved...? ...Suffolk County... South Boston 15.5 918 AM 3/04 Trained Spotter Dorchester 15.5 720 AM 3/04 Ham Radio Chelsea 14.0 815 AM 3/04 Ham Radio Jamacia Plain 13.2 800 AM 3/04 Co-Op Observer Boston 13.0 925 AM 3/04 General Public East Boston 12.1 705 AM 3/04 General Public Logan AP 9.8 708 AM 3/04 Airport
×