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About wxsniss

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    Brookline, MA

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  1. wxsniss

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Decent couplet north of Granby
  2. wxsniss

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Wow... glad you're ok! When the adrenaline clears... was that hail or branches?
  3. Happy Easter / Passover everyone If the NAM has a clue --- and that's a whale of an "if" while Euro is meh --- decent dynamics esp for CT into southeast MA, quick hitter notable mostly for the time of year... for entertainment purposes only, look at soundings for KPYM below, I think that's better than anything they had during the 3/21 chokestorm... no good easterly fetch and won't have much moisture to work with, so we'd need those dynamics
  4. Multi-cycle + multi-model (including Euro) trend was pretty strong and I was harping on that last evening. And all consistent with the same issues we were discussing since the beginning... too much confluence + mechanics disjointed by first shortwave and multiple low centers + when it does occlude it's too far south. Could there be surprises? The zonked out 0z NAM gave some pause because it led the charge on the last storm, but this close in, I think GFS + UK + RGEM + HRPDS caving to Euro has to be given a lot of weight this morning.
  5. Feeling better about leaning conservative in Boston area, told co-workers 4-8" in the face of official email hysteria Feel really bad for forecasters down in Philly area, a really tough forecast down there and rug might be yanked overnight Gnite all
  6. Actually looks a little better than 12z at H5 through hrs 30-36... but surface is pretty meh... not getting the jump like 0z NAM / HRDPS
  7. Clear shift east at surface with low off Maryland through 24... we'll see if vortmax can wrap around and catch it in next frames
  8. It's almost a smoother version of the GFS... GFS a little more lumpy due to those heavy qpf blobs southeast CT and eastern MA related to localized 850-700 fronto, perhaps associated with pieces of vorticity, but I think that meso stuff is impossible to pinpoint this far out...
  9. Even taking that into account, seemed like significant cutback down there, maybe 15-20mm... that's an even more stressful forecast down there because there's lots of good guidance including 12z Euro supporting 14-20"... I always fear for them getting the rugged pulled in these setups
  10. What a clusterf on guidance... Just as we were praising UK for relative consistency... dropped in qpf vs. 12z: slight 10 mm ≈ 0.4 inch in SNE, but drastic almost 20 mm ≈ 0.8 inch cut off in southeast PA:
  11. Yeah Jerry and SRAirglo... pretty confident Logan breaks 60... incredible month Without the luxury of 0z suite, I told inquiring co-workers earlier today 4-8" for Boston, and feel a little better about that now... only significant outlier was coked out 18z HRPDS, let's see if 0z comes down to earth...
  12. Those 2 blobs of heavy on GFS... in southeast CT and eastern MA... correspond to mid-low level fronto
  13. Agree was thinking the same, not as jumpy... it just doesn't get recognition because it's not as accessible as the rest
  14. Boston TV Forecasts for Boston metro area inside 128: WBZ Eric Fisher : 5-8" WCVB Wankum: 4-8" WHDH: 3-6"
  15. RGEM... only can see surface on http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/... that said, it's only slightly different, only not as dynamic as 18z run... H5 not out yet