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About wxsniss

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    Brookline, MA

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  1. Yeah Jay, Fella, we could use it, we’ve been shanked with this stationary CF for hours now RGEM has 6+ in Bos, Essex Co, South Shore, heaviest 3-8am
  2. Just catching up, long day unable to post... Yeah when these Messenger fades east begin on guidance, they can be relentless despite some hopeful guidance... we’ll miss the meat of the CCB That said, we are getting decent snowfall under minimal or no radar returns... low level inflow. An additional 2-4 seems very doable in most of eastern SNE... 0z NAM says even more... highest amounts northeast MA and south shore
  3. True! More accurate: biggest Tues hit in last 6 NAM runs
  4. Hold the obits... 6z NAM has its biggest hit yet for eastern SNE Tuesday Widespread ~6-12 ORH east SNE, up into sNH and ME
  5. Yeah 0z Euro round 2 more like 2-4" rather than 6-16" on 12z run... suggests the fading trend is real I'll leave the possibility for more with deformation further west and vortmaxes hard to pin down, and UK still huge, but it's tenuous Sometimes these Messenger fades don't relent once they start
  6. What an ugly game... love the AB tweet Doubt my 3-6" call for metro Boston round 1 verified, certainly not in city proper, saw 1.2" 7:16pm KBOS 0z GFS wasn’t bad at all, better than 18z. Tenuous potential but it’s still there.
  7. 0z NAM maybe a slight tick east vs. 18z but still a good hit for eSNE, really nails outer Cape... and so close to a much bigger hit 24+ hours away... no further clarity or definite trend re: round 2 at this point
  8. Precarious setup and a tough forecast. It may very well capture too far east or regress to the diffuse weaker solutions, but I wouldn't nail the coffin from just a single 18z Euro run, especially after the entire 12z suite was showing a bigger hit.
  9. As if hearing all the discussion turning to "round 2", 18z NAM goes ballistic colder and heavier tonight
  10. Agree, complex and precarious. Something in how the vortmaxes are handled and how the different lows consolidate made multiple members of 12z suite jump... we're now seeing SLP to 970s by 9z-12z Tues (deepest and closest we've seen yet) on NAM/RGEM/Euro, whereas in general prior guidance has shown a meandering occluded 980s low. The WAA tonight has gotten most of the attention, but real powder keg potential for eastern areas comes Mon night-Tues. It's precarious and guidance is just catching on. What regions benefit most, I'm still uncertain. eastern SNE / NH / ME I think have best shot. And for those who are considering now "just hours before go-time", the more relevant and distinct process of surface low consolidation and ULL capture is > 24 hours away.
  11. Yeah re: B word was wondering that too... 12z RGEM/12kNAM/Euro for Tues are not far off if low gets captured, deepens, and loops off CC as shown. To add to this potential, note that we are now seeing SLP continue to deepen into 970s (whereas on earlier guidance it was a meandering occluded 980s) Still up in the air where this happens (> 24 hours away), and I think eastern half SNE up into eNH/ME all have potential
  12. Boom 6z-12z Tues For eastern SNE, disproportionate attention has been on "round 1", which is really just the first part of a prolonged 2ndary transfer... All about consolidating a dominant 2ndary low which on current guidance is a vorticity mess before 0z Tues As posted pre-Euro above, I anticipate solutions today will converge on a bigger impact after 0z Tues, the far bigger potential for eastern SNE than "round 1"
  13. Happy Birthday Jerry! A real pain forecast, less because of rain-snow issues and more because of complex evolution. Great disco everyone. Some thoughts: Likely oversimplified, but the way I view this entire system of "round 1", "round 2", and in between, is a stretched out and messy secondary coastal transfer. What we're calling "round 1" is still part of WAA associated with the primary low over the Lakes. Yes, 2ndary surface reflections start to pop up by 0z Mon (when the round 1 thump is well underway in SNE and mixing already nearing BOS), but 850 winds are still from the south going all the way back to ~ Michigan. For eastern SNE, IMO the bigger potential snow will be impacts of an eventually dominant 2ndary coastal Monday night - Tues. Powderkeg potential that is not spoiled by round 1. How that develops has been a mess, with multiple pieces of vorticity circling around the ULL, hence multiple surface lows appearing to pop up and bobble back and forth over 24 hours between 0z Mon - 0z Tues. Whichever of these multiple lows dominates will determine how hard we (eastern SNE) get hit by its CCB after 0z Tues in "round 2". Remember this "round 2", even though we are considering it part of the same storm, is still over 24 hours out. I think the baroclinic zone remains closer to the coast and we see bigger impact solutions of a CCB lock in through today. As for a forecast? Easier to separate the different storm parts, and the bigger total numbers of all rounds put together could appear to disappoint if we have 12 hours of lighter rain in between. For the Boston metro area, I'm thinking: 3-6 in round 1, maybe 4-8 in far western burbs... then another 4-8 in round 2 (though I'm much less confident of this for reasons above and its > 24 hours away)... for an event total 7-14. Obviously biggest bust potential is in the CCB round 2 where this could even bust too low if one of the multiple surface lows dominates sooner and closer. Awesome start to met winter!
  14. I know, I’m just being tongue-in-cheek Though even if dismissed as part of a spray of outcomes on those models, what adds more intrigue to the underdog/coup narrative is that Euro has not shown a big hit once, iirc FV3 is now 6+ intensifying runs in a row now... this could either be a splashy debut or more evidence it has no business replacing the GFS