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About wxsniss

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    Brookline, MA

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  1. wxsniss

    Hurricane Florence

    Agree. Have been watching this peripherally, haven't posted at all. It was obvious the mechanics were never the same after that first ERC, and the ragged / dry southwest quadrant has been a visible issue ever since. Echoing Ray and others the past 48 hours, you can sense when these systems are "infected" with disrupted mechanics that they just can't shake out, regardless of favorable extrinsic features. Maybe modeling is good at reading large extrinsic synoptic features (shear, steering, water temps, etc) but is not as good at recognizing these broken intrinsic features? Intensity forecasts from just 24-48 hours ago will have been way off. Obviously still anticipating significant storm surge and flooding impacts. But yeah would be nice if there was a little more thoughtful analysis of what's going on, and not the stupefied repetitive track maps, Cat # graphics, and histrionics. TWC wants this cash cow bad.
  2. wxsniss

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Barring any redevelopment, vis sat says we may even see sun later this afternoon... I'm relieved with tix for ball game this afternoon
  3. wxsniss

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    And ground truth confirms... there is almost no wind with these downpours
  4. wxsniss

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Yeah south of pike was where I was watching for redevelopment... but at this point the mode is really messy to say the least, if more isolated these eddies might have had a better chance
  5. wxsniss

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Have tickets to Sox game 4pm... glad this line is getting an early start Webster:
  6. wxsniss

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    How are there no severe warnings up and down this line with damage already on ground? Couplet keeps tightening then loosening, if the line weren't so messy rotation might redevelop south of pike
  7. wxsniss

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Decent couplet north of Granby
  8. wxsniss

    General Severe Weather Discussion 2018

    Wow... glad you're ok! When the adrenaline clears... was that hail or branches?
  9. Happy Easter / Passover everyone If the NAM has a clue --- and that's a whale of an "if" while Euro is meh --- decent dynamics esp for CT into southeast MA, quick hitter notable mostly for the time of year... for entertainment purposes only, look at soundings for KPYM below, I think that's better than anything they had during the 3/21 chokestorm... no good easterly fetch and won't have much moisture to work with, so we'd need those dynamics
  10. Multi-cycle + multi-model (including Euro) trend was pretty strong and I was harping on that last evening. And all consistent with the same issues we were discussing since the beginning... too much confluence + mechanics disjointed by first shortwave and multiple low centers + when it does occlude it's too far south. Could there be surprises? The zonked out 0z NAM gave some pause because it led the charge on the last storm, but this close in, I think GFS + UK + RGEM + HRPDS caving to Euro has to be given a lot of weight this morning.
  11. Feeling better about leaning conservative in Boston area, told co-workers 4-8" in the face of official email hysteria Feel really bad for forecasters down in Philly area, a really tough forecast down there and rug might be yanked overnight Gnite all
  12. Actually looks a little better than 12z at H5 through hrs 30-36... but surface is pretty meh... not getting the jump like 0z NAM / HRDPS
  13. Clear shift east at surface with low off Maryland through 24... we'll see if vortmax can wrap around and catch it in next frames
  14. It's almost a smoother version of the GFS... GFS a little more lumpy due to those heavy qpf blobs southeast CT and eastern MA related to localized 850-700 fronto, perhaps associated with pieces of vorticity, but I think that meso stuff is impossible to pinpoint this far out...
  15. Even taking that into account, seemed like significant cutback down there, maybe 15-20mm... that's an even more stressful forecast down there because there's lots of good guidance including 12z Euro supporting 14-20"... I always fear for them getting the rugged pulled in these setups