FXWX

The lesson that you take away from this system, and it is a lesson that has to be constantly harped about, is that modeling will more often than not do poorly on the placement of these meso bands. They will show you the well known pattern features that imply significant banding should occur, but they will struggle or just completely fail on getting the location and often the intensity of the banding correct. The upper air components were screaming banding for days with this setup and folks were living and dying each model run on where the banding was being depicted by admiring qpf or clown snowfall projection maps. In the end, the take-away is use the modeled 500/700/850 forecast tracks & configuration to forecast the likelihood of banding but only give general hints at where it might end up. Then it becomes a nowcast deal as the banding starts to tip its hand; late yesterday afternoon and very early in the evening, nowcasting using mainly the SPC meso analysis page you could see how and where the banding was going to setup. I expect the models to miss the banding location(s) more times than not; we have seen it numerous times over the years. With this system most if not all of the primary models were screaming banding if you looked at the 500/700/850 forecasts. But it almost always comes down to nowcasting for the final outcome.

Map does not accurately depict totals across western Hartford County and eastern Litchfield County; I had 15 total in Burlington (western Hartford Cty and Harwinton in eastern Litchfield Cty has 14"... BOX has not updated my total...

11.5 new in Burlington; total 15"

11.5 new during evening / overnight period here in Burlington, CT... storm total 15.0 inches

This "People are just nasty and miserable!" Been my philosophy for years; lol

Can you name a few of the "lots" of good mets that are worried about a ratter?

Go to your menu; top left (3 bars) then go to radars and locations.. go to locations tap, upper right. At the bottom go to add a location. You can put exact location in, street number, etc. save and it will show it on the radar. Then go back in and you can edit it to show only a symbol or a short name.

Had them on a regular basis through my 20's and 30's. No medication made much difference. For whatever reason the thing that eventually worked, is as soon as I noted the hint of the visual aura, I would down a coke (not diet) and 4 Advil's. If I migraine came on after that it was mild and short-lived. I have no idea why it worked...

I have not been able to get into DuPage web site for 2 days? Have they changed their url?

Crap! I'm still cleaning up from the Worcester redo tornado event of last week!!!

Have bluebirds at my feeders; they like the mealworms (dead) that Lowes sells locally down here. First pair of nesting bluebirds in our yard has fledglings that are already sticking there heads out of the box. This brood will likely be on their own within another week or 10 days... Usually they will start another brood by mid-June.

Do you have the url link to this graphic?

Such a volatile situation; hard to quantify and plan for what a flip would look like, if it happened at all and how it might impact conditions across northern CT; could run the gamut of impacts from zero issues to surprise slushy travel; if dynamic flip occurs across northern CT, what would you estimate the best timing??? thinking somewhere in 4:30 - 7:30 am period?

No disagreement from me... just happy it will be a Saturday morning issue, not work/school day, in the high terrain areas of CT school Regions 1 & 7 districts...

Count not agree with you more. Folks instantly make a jump to "there is no way this is happening or show me a model that calls for a region-wide blizzard" when the statement is just about how meteorologically close this is to a remember-able bomb event! Will it happen, probably not and yes eastern areas are closer to trouble than western areas, but the atmospheric setup is only a hair off from being a truly wild event. Again, I am not calling for it, but I can certainly appreciate the closeness of the pattern to a nasty event.