FXWX

The road temp question is always misrepresented and not assessed correctly by many... rates always win-out. Even last night with glorified snow showers and patchy areas of steady light snow we had to send out trucks to treat high elevation roads here in Burlington, as solid coating occurred. The potential for big rates easily out-weighs any road temp concerns...

For a few days now, the global schemes have all shown the likelihood of surge of bitter cold moving into southeastern Canada during early March. It is not hard to envision a intensifying Maritimes low combining with a sharpening trough sweeping across southeastern Canada driving a piece of the bitter air mass south into New England. Whether or not the pattern across southeastern CT and the Maritimes allows it to happen is very uncertain. Obviously at this time frame, you bet against it. But I think there is a good chance a bitter cold air mass will indeed move into southeastern Canada. Whether or not it can be propelled southward into New England is an open question. But I certainly would not dismiss it; especially for portions of Northern New England.

3.0" in Burlington at 1,140 ft... Had 2 pic (rule measurements) sent to me from Highland Lake area of Winsted showing 4.5"

The ridgeline from New Canaan to Ridgefield to Danbury getting smoked...

It also puts the brakes on the warming taking temps down a notch or two once it sets in...

That would blast the lower Fairfield County forecast right out of the water...

New 1.2 since 5 pm; just touched 4" mark

Yes... towns that did not pretreat and/or DPW crews were not ready to go; especially across northwestern areas of CT, need time for a full treatment, which takes early dismissals off the table... switched to remote learning day. Many towns were ready to treat and are fine...

~0.4"

Burlington, CT... 1,160'

Rates should overcome low-level warmth... they will waste a bit of qpf, but I would still expect them to verify moderate totals at least.

Steve, what's the url for that site?

Certainly weird looking... lots issues to still be resolved that will greatly impact final totals...

Very much agree with those thoughts... I think yesterday you mentioned looking at the crude E-Wall site Euro maps. I often use that site as a simple overview of the large-scale features and what they imply before I dig deeper with the more "sophisticated" model sites.

Actually, many times I think there is just too much data (maps) to look at; sometimes its best to pull out the Kocin book and look at similar 500/700/850 setups and check out qpf distribution. Even just looking at the crude E-Wall euro map is a great starting point to look at the overall pattern...