Jump to content

FXWX

Meteorologist
  • Content count

    64
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by FXWX

  1. FXWX

    Spring 2019 New England Banter and Disco

    Have bluebirds at my feeders; they like the mealworms (dead) that Lowes sells locally down here. First pair of nesting bluebirds in our yard has fledglings that are already sticking there heads out of the box. This brood will likely be on their own within another week or 10 days... Usually they will start another brood by mid-June.
  2. FXWX

    May 2019 Discussion

    Do you have the url link to this graphic?
  3. FXWX

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    Such a volatile situation; hard to quantify and plan for what a flip would look like, if it happened at all and how it might impact conditions across northern CT; could run the gamut of impacts from zero issues to surprise slushy travel; if dynamic flip occurs across northern CT, what would you estimate the best timing??? thinking somewhere in 4:30 - 7:30 am period?
  4. FXWX

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    No disagreement from me... just happy it will be a Saturday morning issue, not work/school day, in the high terrain areas of CT school Regions 1 & 7 districts...
  5. FXWX

    March Disco

    Count not agree with you more. Folks instantly make a jump to "there is no way this is happening or show me a model that calls for a region-wide blizzard" when the statement is just about how meteorologically close this is to a remember-able bomb event! Will it happen, probably not and yes eastern areas are closer to trouble than western areas, but the atmospheric setup is only a hair off from being a truly wild event. Again, I am not calling for it, but I can certainly appreciate the closeness of the pattern to a nasty event.
  6. FXWX

    March Disco

    No doubt! As much as I am ready for spring, that type of setup with the potency of the upper dynamics & the nature of that air mass would have me saying, "ok, lets go out with a true bang!"
  7. FXWX

    March Disco

    Yep; angle of attack into southeast Canada and the westerly component does indeed suggest it will not hang around; big 24-hour flip if the cold does make it into parts of nrn New England; particularly Maine. Would be more interesting if the modeled flow was displaced ~300-500 miles to the west?
  8. FXWX

    March Disco

    Regardless of how the storm issues do or do not play out, those are 2 very nasty late season cold slugs coming into southeastern Canada this upcoming weekend and then again the middle of next week...
  9. Details always need to be worked out; but you had the guts to start a thread!
  10. Nice call / heads-up on this event Wiz...
  11. FXWX

    March Disco

    Yup! Balloon launch at 11 z / 23 z during DST works for me! lol
  12. FXWX

    March Disco

    Would not be at all surprised if that is the case; in fact I would expect it. Although a popularity poll doesn't mean it is the right thing to do?
  13. FXWX

    March Disco

    Agree 110%... It will lead to a big push back from school districts and parents. I'm perfectly fine with the status quo... To be honest, I hate the thought of 2 pm for the Euro release; many of my wintertime school updates need to be fully out by 2 pm and I always want to get a at least a quick peak at the Euro before updating evening / overnight periods. By the time DST kicks in now during early/mid March winter forecasting stress is usually starting to wane so I can live with the current flip to DST but would hate it for the NOV-FEB period.
  14. FXWX

    March Disco

    I will tell you right now, if we go DST year round it will lead to several additional late openings school decisions a year across portions of SNE. One thing that is frequently assessed in predawn conversations with superintendents is when is sunrise and when will it be bright enough to see clearly along the sides of roads & corners during ongoing clean-up post storm periods. While some high school pick-up times during EST are during solidly dark times, DST would put middle and elementary students into the dark mix???
  15. FXWX

    NE snow event March 4th

    I've been involved with this end of forecasting for 30+ years and things have certainly changed. But there are a multitude of factors in play now (input from DPW/Police/Politicians/Bus companies/insurance companies/tons of student drivers & PARENTS) that make it an easier and quicker call by superintendents. I do not know of a superintendent that wants to cancel school; but you have no idea about the conversations that go on from all the entities list above. It is almost always a damned if you do and damned if you don't situation.
  16. FXWX

    NE snow event March 4th

    Widespread school cancellations will occur given timing... If confidence is high that amounts will verify, we will see schools announce this evening. With it ending west to east during the 4:30 to 7 am period, clean-up time for most schools will not be able to get facilities ready and side / back roads will still need some work. Even with delays, many districts have buses on the road by or shortly after 7 am... Some districts with 3 hour delays may have a shot...
  17. FXWX

    Feb 9th Coastal Obs

    Not sure why the list changes; I can see old reports that were taken during the event before it was over and were never updated; have noticed several get dropped each storm! My late afternoon update was dropped and it was a final report?
  18. FXWX

    Feb 9th Coastal Obs

    6.5 new in Burlington, CT... Thunder at 9:35 am
  19. FXWX

    Model Mayhem IV!

    Might be time to dust off the old roof rake!!!
  20. FXWX

    February 9th Coastal Storm Discussion

    That is one very impressive fronto band; coverage of the band is considerably larger than many events; where the core axis of that sets up is going to ROCK!
  21. FXWX

    Model Mayhem IV!

    Euro 12z sfc temps / dew pts are 1 to 2 degrees colder/lower across western / northern CT Tuesday at 12z compared to 00z run.
  22. FXWX

    Model Mayhem IV!

    12z Euro also impressive with ice signal for parts of CT, in particular Litchfield Cty!
  23. FXWX

    Jan 31/Feb 1 Clipper

    Early D's very likely; onset time maybe in the 10:30 to 11:30 AM period, but best activity likely waits until after 1 PM, as it looks now; if that holds early D's will workout ok across your area; fear always is that it bodily moves in prior to noon; but trend has been to slow it down a bit; as always needs reassessment in morning...
  24. FXWX

    Model Mayhem III!

    In general, they keep a broad 500 mb western ridge / eastern trough configuration through Feb. With time heights are indicated above run a bit above normal across the eastern half of the country, but the basic flow owuld still support a normal to at least modestly colder than normal conditions... I don't really pay much attention to 850 temps and just follow 500 mb tendencies. Certainly a pattern the east can work with given air mass origin region into central and eastern US.
  25. FXWX

    June Pattern Discussion

    Aren't all forecast disagreements on this forum respectful? As everyone can tell by the number of comments I have posted, to say I am an infrequent poster is an over-statement and will never post looking for a battle; but yes we are in disagreement with how this month finishes out. It may be more a matter of semantics or how one meteorologist views the pattern versus how someone else's take on the evolving pattern. I am in no way calling for a cold pattern to end the month. In fact, I think the second half of the month averages modestly above normal with the chance for a couple of hot days; especially in the 20-24th time frame. But in my view the results will not fit my perception of a true mid/late June hot pattern or torch. I could be wrong and we could end up will a long period of hot weather but I don't like the average position of the ridge off to our west since it leaves the door open for Northeast U.S. or eastern Canada troughing on a regular basis over the next 2 weeks. While Canada is warming, any eastern trough (Northeast or Canada)will allow the mixing of eastern Canadian air with any Midwest or south-central Canadian heat, which will limit hot warm/hot the air mass can be across New England. And there may well be periods that the troughing is sufficient to completely dominate the flow and shunt the hot air west to our south. I always pay attention to pattern persistence and until I see almost universal evidence that the Northeast trough footprint is gone (more likely in early July than mid or late June) I will opt to not go overboard with a call for a long running hot pattern. Again, I am not calling for colder than normal conditions to dominate mid/late June! I expect it to average warmer than normal with a couple of hot days tossed in; but does not yet fit my description of a New England hot pattern for the time of the year. Of course, I could be wrong; if trends support a more bullish call for heat, I will move in that directionJust not ready to go there yet; as we head into July odds likely increase.
×