FXWX

Agree Tip... If that's your concern on Jan. 19th during a generally cold period, it might be time for a break. Just be happy we have a moderate event to track...

The last thing the vast majority of the forum needs to be worried about is surface temps. Any marginal surface temps at onset will vaporize quickly... mid-January during a long running cold pattern with solidly cold / frozen ground surfaces losing much to melting at onset is not an issue.

Win some; lose some!!! https://x.com/i/status/1880070171982778694

Yes, yes, and yes.

I hear ya... general trends are all I deal with; there are no (zero) experts when it comes to the long-range stuff...

Wiz... I actually see a lot of that in your forecasting... might be a good thing; might be a bad thing; lol

I know Walt well, he's a good friend, great forecaster and a mentor; we often chat prior to noteworthy events. And while we all have different takes on various models; and I favor ones that have a long solid track (not perfect) record, and its known biases can be adjusted and applied to its current depictions. Even the lowly NAM is quite useful if you know how to read and adjust its tea leaves... Forecasters should use the models and techniques that they are most comfortable with; I have not been a big fan of the GGEM over the decades. I have found the Reggie good with significant ice accumulation events. The good thing about this science there is room for a variety of forecasting techniques depending on one's experiences. I have made a wonderful living doing this successfully for 40+ years, so what I use and prefer works for me; likely not for others. There are no perfect models, and they all fail miserably from time to time. The key to being successful is to know the strengths and weaknesses of the modeling, and more importantly don't take your eyes off of the meteorology; modelology (made up word) should not completely over-rule the actual meteorology of a particular event setup. As many of the mets on here have said over the years, you have to be able to say, does a particular model's output make sense with what we know about how the atmosphere usually behaves in a given setup. If not run away from it... My apologies if i sound snarky, but just not a big Reggie or GGEM fan, but if they works for others that's wonderful.

I hear ya, and I do give a "glance" when close to a major event, but if I didn't have access to it, that wouldn't bother me; I feel that same about the ICON.

Agree... A degree of my post was a bit in jest; I fully understand folks looking at as much info as possible, and looking for trends; once inside 36 hours, I also sneak a peak at the reggie during really big potential events in case a radically different solution points to a red flag...

I know folks love looking at and posting about any model than can get their hands on, but I'm surprised by the amount of posts about the Reggie, the ICON, and yes even the global Canadian! Reggie will every once in a great while hit an event, but it is far from a consistently correct model. Decision makers never sit there and say, I can't wait to see the Reggie, ICON or the Canadian before I lock in my final forecast.

From this point on, focus on 850, 700, 500 structures / trends...

Reading comprehension is not a high point with the general populus. All you have to do is listen to or read the comments after any snow event. If the forecast was 8 to 12 inches, everyone who received less than 12" complains the forecast was wrong! Lol

I assumed it went without saying!

Tip... A successful winter posting style in this forum usually involves using one or more of the following terms; nape, increasing sun angle, increasing daylight period, winter is "a percent % of your choice and/or fake cold... Lol

The drone of posts about sunlight periods and increasing sun angle as we move through the winter season gets soooo tiresome! It's as if folks have zero knowledge of the winter season in New England... I'm sure most of it is to just bust balls but seeing it year after year gets beyond tiresome. As almost everyone knows, the biggest snows and coldest weather almost always (99 % of the time) occurs after solar min...Maybe there should be a year-round thread devoted just to sun angle and/or sunlight period for those who feel the need to post about it; lol...

Better than worrying about suppression and/or phasing concerns... Over-running with some secondary formation potential would be fine with me at this point.

I believe the real transition to the great stretch began during the 1/22-27/2015 period. I recall a highly disruptive freezing rain event around Jan 17 that caused nightmare driving conditions across srn CT & I-95 corridor...

It is getting quite remarkable. I think the overall storm pattern, in general, was well modeled, meaning we knew a stormy period would evolve across the central and eastern U.S. during early / mid Jan. I was not shocked by the first system missing due to suppression given the blocky pattern off to our north and northeast. In fact, there were many posts about the suppression concern as we headed into this pattern. That being said, now we a failed phasing event, which is always a delicate dance, but can't we catch a break! This second threat period was seen coming over 7 days ago, and it just another kick in the ass that it appears to be a big dog failure. Of course, there is always a chance I might need to eat crow if a Hail Mary shift occurs over the next 72 hours. Sooner or later one of these events will blow up in our face?

Off topic... But if you want to see some ugly sh*t, tune into the live stream of the Palisades Fire... NBC 4 out of LAX...

Big gradient across the Simsbury / Granby and adjacent areas. Northwest to Southeast gradient as you head from northeastern Litchfield county southeast across Simsbury into western edge of the Farmington Valley.

I'm good with that consensus. Gfs a bit east, maybe a bit weaker, and euro comes northwest.

Like has been mentioned already, this a case where there may be little or no middle ground. A phasing and it's kaboom! But a lack of phasing means a minor or a non-event. The phasing or non-phase options are separated by miniscule 500 mb differences! One way or the other I would not be shocked if there's not consensus until 0z tomorrow night?

Correction: A few years ago, I would have been concerned... not so much anymore... at least not to the same degree as during the old days when the king was truly the king. Maybe it's right this time around but my worry when it's in dispute with other models is no longer as great!

A few years ago, I would have been concerned... not so much anymore... at least not to the same degree as during the old days when the king was truly the king. Maybe it's right this time around but my worry when it's in dispute with other models.

That's exactly my feeling... This is either a big dog or zippo event. Given the poor performance of the euro in the day 4 to day 6 range over the past couple of winters, it doesn't bother me at all where the euro is right now.