FXWX

I think we still have a tricky 12 to 14 hour period ahead... not so much about heavy qpf, but lots of variety of types... Image if we just had a "normal" air mass sliding back into the region tonight...

Nice... yes... it was all about good rates and on the right side of the low / mid-level freezing line...

Yep... I would not dismiss the evening and overnight periods' ability to produce some nice additional coverage... I'm 31/32 with pretty steady freezing rain...

31 here... 3.9" before the flip to freezing rain.

Sleetfest here now...

I've got lots of town crews with road cover on one side of town and just rain on the other side of town. Let me know if you start seeing complete road coverage? You should get there soon. Here even the lower elevations (300') in what is called the Lake Garda area now have solid cover!

Yes... It's still a shit show type of storm... probably still some surprises to come..

Burlington, Ct

It's low confidence for a variety of outcomes across most of CT... I'm just happy it's a Sunday event, which greatly lowers my forecasting stress levels...

Agree... I would not dismiss any option at this time... Hoping qpf rates stay healthy Sunday morning...

No, I do not post my client bases info on social media... but you would find them to be closely aligned with the general sentiments of many of the mets on here; discussing the marginal surface air mass, the very marginal 850 temps during the period(s) of hvy precip and how minute changes during these periods could allow for bursts of hvy wet snow in areas that might right now appear to me mostly in all rain or snow/rain mix zone. I also outlined my thoughts about how portions of Lit cty eastward into the high terrain areas of far western HFD cty, northern Tolland cty & northern Windham cty could over-perform some of the numbers on local media snowfall maps. You're in one of the areas likely to see several inch snowfall amount differences within a very short drive. Much of this is highly dependent on precip rates in some locations being able to sustain an isothermal profile. This would have been such as easy forecast with just a seasonable air mass sfc and/or aloft... My original post was that for some storms it's easier to describe using bullet points and no maps, given the tendency for folks to lock into a number on the map and not reading any accompanying narrative... I think you could be good for 6 to 9???

As good as any I've seen... bust potential is big across the higher elevations of Litchfield CTY, western Hartford Cty, and northern Tolland & Windam counites... almost no way to show the possible variations across the northern half of CT on any map. I'm right on the Litchfield Cty border sitting at about 1,140' but a few miles away it 200 to 300' of elevation...????

I think trying to draw a forecast map for CT is pretty much a worthless exercise in this setup... The elevation changes over short distance alone will kill you... add in the other factors, such as mid-level temp chaos and I think it is just not a viable way to convey the uncertainty... My course of action was to prepare a list of bullet points (15 of them) listing statements about how variable the conditions may be across the region from the shore to the Northwest Hills and discussing elevation factors, etc... I'm over 1,100 feet at my house, but about 3 miles away it is only 200 to 300 feet...

Did you post a final call???

14 here for a high

Nice job Tip... Perfect visualization of this type of a classic swfe / overrunning event. I miss seeing these +pp forced events... Good winters of yore used to feature several of these...

If this forum starts requiring logic, it might just die... lol ... Not sure you will find that concept in your average Meteorology text...

Looking at the soundings for CT, it appears the GFS is the only model saturating the low levels; The 18z Euro keeps the low levels relatively dry right through the event?

I'd be wary, in fact I am very wary about any 2-inch rain events... Not impressed with Thursday / Friday setup, but will give it another day... more interested in next week... we are in somewhat of a pattern change relative to past storm tracks (cutters) and available cold air masses, so I would continue to watch next week closely...

12k would mean decent icing across parts of eastern CT...

Mod/hvy snow squall in Burlington, CT

I would keep it in the 1 to 3 or 2 to 4 inch range right now. Would prefer to nudge it up if need be later than have to chop it back...

Maybe some of the stronger gusts will be embedded in the squalls, but there is enough CAA / gradient winds to make it gusty much of the day. Lots of dead trees out there just looking for a reason to fall... Had 2 trees come down in town already when winds started to crank this afternoon... we've had multiple gusts into the mid 30's and just recorded a 40 mph gust.

Completely agree with bolded... While I'm not a big poster, I do enjoy reading many of the treads, but the BS has gotten just so overwhelming!!! Some very sad lifestyles out there