FXWX

Nov 26, 2014... Day before turkey day... Evening pic.

https://www.facebook.com/share/fNxXT3YX2x74JqBd/

Agree... Anyone chasing fantasy cold trends hinted at by a MJO forecast should relax and enjoy the weeks of AN conditions...

Stunningly nice on 495 S heading to the Cape!

Burlington CT

Agree... Final outcomes, none of which are good, somewhat dependent on ERC and tidal timing.

Hey John... good friend and a former student of mine is the MIC at NWSFO Tampa... Convo with him last night was pretty alarming!

Kev... You make my head hurt....lol. I must of missed the lecture on its a known meteorological "fact" that storms are guided near shore by coasts? If only it was that simple; we could save a crap load of money currently being spent on sophisticated models. Also trying to use personification "they seek" when dealing with final track is a bit much. In certain cases, there are relatively small shifts or wobbles as the low level circulation interacts with the coastline, but they are very minor and the basic track is always governed by the large scale flow above and around the circulation. There are many coastal areas that seem to have a protective hurricane shield, but it's the climatological history of the large scale upper level flow that protects them, not the shape of the coastline.

Why didn't the shape of the coastline protect them in 1848 and 1921? The actual shape of the coast has little to no impact on landfall track, it always comes down to short term steering currents that for a variety of reasons have favored orientations & alignments not tied to coastal plain shape.

There will be more chasers and tv mets there than residents!

Unless they are newly planted trees, this year, I wouldn't worry... They may drop leaves a bit early but will be fine if they have become established over the past year or so. If they are recently planted, say this past spring, here is neat trick a landscaper friend showed me years ago. Buy lengths of 2 inch PVC conduit. Cut them into 2 or 3 foot sections and drill multiple quarter to half inch holes in the lower half of one side. Pound 2 or 3 pieces into the ground about 12 inches from the trunk; spaced out around trunk. Slide hose into the PVC and allow a slow but steady stream on water into the tube. I found it is best to get a 2 inch round pole like piece of wood or a metal pipe and use that to form the hole for the PVC. I've used this technique for years when needed; even for new shrubs

That's putting it mildly... not only garbage solution, but the suggestion the modeled track & outcome mimics 1938 is less than laughable.

That's what I'm finding as well. It took a while before the Plainville CT (Robertson Arpt) awos showed up on the plots. I do like having the Mansfield location for an additional data pt.

Is the Mansfield awos being plotted on any sfc metar pages yet? Don't see it on the NOAA gis page or Grx placefile feeds?

Agree... Agree... Agree... Hard to argue that the frequency of precipitation bombs has been increasing; be it spring, summer, fall or winter! Location and coverage of events will always be highly dependent upon short term synoptics, but certainly fits the footprint of any atmosphere that is more frequently getting H2O load!

Low 48.7

OT, but check out this outflow boundary in the Raleigh area!!!

We've just moved our house trailer to just north of the I-90 corridor.

Would not be shocked... Actually, I always like (general term) the late September into early / mid-October period for that reason alone... Far more interesting trying to time a deepening eastward trough's interaction with a tropical system moving near the Bahamas or approaching the NC coastal plain than watching a system off the EC with a lazy upper air flow. If you want some trouble, have a pattern that can rocket something north or northwest into the EC?

Yep... I agree... it will tough to not go through a formation surge moving into and through the mid-month period. Whether or not that leads to landfalls aways comes down to relatively short term pattern evolutions. Right now, I don't see an ominous EC pattern but that can change quickly.

This is sounding more and more like when we get to mid-January with squat and start screaming about how good Feb and March are looking!

Yes... Yes... Yes!!!

Go the SPC meso analysis page and scroll through the upper air section and the heavy rainfall section... deep-layered southerly flow with high values of precipitable water converging into southwest and southern CT on into parts of central CT... Note the Precipitation potential placement image...

Amazing the number of locally excessive rainfall events we have seen over the past 2 or 3 years across the Northeast.

You are not wrong; in a general sense a true EC threat has a solid fingerprint 5 to 7 days, sometimes 10 days out.