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FXWX

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by FXWX

  1. FXWX
    I remain cautious and quite conservative anywhere along and north of the I-84 corridor; a general 1.5 to 2, with low pop of iso 3"? Cape area looks good; 3 to 5, spot 5+; and a general 2 to 3 with isolated 4's across southern CT; maxing out in New London County...
  2. FXWX
    Easy is not a word I've used frequently the last few years... I do like the tight low/mid level thermal gradient, and know if we can force enough convergence into that gradient, it would produce a decent snowfall? But I need to see consistent guidance trending that way. If I do, I'll move from a general 1 to 2 to a call to a 2-to-4-inch forecast, biased east and southeast. I'll be working from the Cape this weekend, so I expect to see snow even if CT underperforms.
  3. FXWX
    I see you're using the 40 to 1 ratio rule!
  4. FXWX
    Humor...That's all we've got left...
  5. FXWX
    Makes perfect sense since they both ended up in the Mid-Atlantic!
  6. FXWX
    I think the 18z was ready early this evening Will be interesting to see how quickly Ncep releases it starting on 17th?
  7. FXWX
    Probably late to the news but didn't know Polar Wx added new AI-GFS; GraphCast - GFS model, and the NOAA version goes operational Dec. 17th... Its 18z run looks similar to Euro products for Sunday... Link below... https://t.co/ckQkMydRHT
  8. FXWX
  9. FXWX
    PXL_20251203_152703838.RAW-02.ORIGINAL.dngPXL_20251203_152703838.RAW-02.ORIGINAL.dngPXL_20251203_152703838.RAW-02.ORIGINAL.dngPXL_20251203_152703838.RAW-02.ORIGINAL.dngNice early winter look from the high terrain areas of Burlington CT; on the Litchfield \ Hartford County border!
  10. FXWX
    Ended with 4" here. Coating up with ice now
  11. FXWX
    Come on, strap those big pants on... Mod/Hvy snow here... warming across western Fairfield county has been tedious with solid snow band there...
  12. FXWX
    Keep posting your obs... very useful for me
  13. FXWX
    Crazy things known to happen in Lit Cty... lol
  14. FXWX
    Low confidence for your area... could be sharp gradient across short distances??? I would not give up hope yet for low-end warning levels?
  15. FXWX
    What could go wrong using terms like "most extreme" and "shocking"!
  16. FXWX
    It's a tough forecast for NW CT... crazy snow gradient possible
  17. FXWX
    No one is listening!
  18. FXWX
    Yes... There is a link to a version that shows amounts as you mouse over the map...
  19. FXWX
    Don't dismiss the possibility that interior districts cancel? This day and age many Supts hate dismissing during an ongoing snowfall? If it's going to start snowing during or shortly after the commuting period, and it's going to continue through the afternoon, many will bail.
  20. FXWX
    Which has almost become the norm 4 to 5 days out.
  21. FXWX
    I do think breaks are coming but there are always going to be MBY screw jobs. And the reality is eastern Mass and the I-95 corridor from sw CT north is always chancy even in a good pattern....
  22. FXWX
    You might be on to something!
  23. FXWX
    Calling this a bullshit pattern on Dec. 2 is pretty funny... Multiple mixture threats for at least interior SNE at this time of the year fine with me in terms of transitioning into winter.
  24. FXWX
    Yes... I agree, the look of vort max and its progged track is not one screaming suppression? At least not yet. Its trend (vort max) moving forward is something to watch closely over the next few runs. Nice to see a post focusing on a forecasting issue.
  25. FXWX
    That's what I'm thinking... A little bit of both, which adds to the complexity! Fun times ahead... I just hope folks enjoy the action and don't get overly hung up and only MBY outcomes.
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