FXWX

We don't... this will be one of those great looking systems that doesn't have a chance of getting to coast. Should put on a nice satellite image show though...

A stronger high may serve to slow the system, possibly even stall it a bit. In past similar situations, a slowing/blocked or stalling setup could increase the threat to the Carolinas; maybe hold it southeast of the Carolinas until a bigger trough comes along to grab it. Not 100% out of the question that a strong high wouldn't direct it into the Carolinas and whatever remains comes northeast as a blustery tropical rain event. Not very likely but on the list of possibilities if the high goes crazy. Even if the high becomes a blocker, you still need the type of MW trough I've talked about to get SNE in trouble otherwise it becomes Carolina hit and rains itself over TN/OH.

Private consulting meteorologist...

Hey Kev, I'd like a good tropical just as much as any other guy! I love the excitement the approach a hurricane threat to the East Coast can bring. And I will be monitoring for changes and trends. But we will need to see very significant pattern trends with any evolving MW trough in the next 48 hours or so... If there is even any modest southwest flow component to the right side of the trough, this will turn seaward when it nears the coast, if it makes it that far west. You need neutral trough alignment at least; ideally a bit of a slight negative tilt. Also, be very wary of any model attempts at a capture into the trough as it gets close to the coast... That almost has to have a full-blown negative trough approaching to workout. I'd love to see it and will jump onboard if trends suggest it; hell, a good hurricane hit threat is great for my business... I have a whole house / office generator and weeks of propane, no trees anywhere near my house, so a can dela with the disruptions a good hit would produce. Keep the faith Kev... you never know???

IMHO, many, not all, folks are looking in the wrong direction... constantly looking seaward to follow slightest change in modeled track is almost pointless. Just turn around and monitor the upper layout trends from the lower Great Lakes / TN Valley areas eastward to the coast. Unless there are significant changes in the that area, this thing will recurve... now it may tease the EC, and we could wake up to a nice-looking storm south of New England, but it will be escaping seaward... While some lower heights are now modeled across the Great Lakes / Midwest area, it is not sufficient for just a mean trough approaching the EC, it has to be one that features at least a neutral alignment with at least a hint of negativity. I will get interested if and when that happens, but it is not there yet...

You can hit all the benchmarks you want, if the door Infront of the system is not open it doesn't matter. Go back and look at the 500 mb before all of our previous hits!!! When they were going through the check points the pattern ahead of them was already evolving in a threatening way...

All righty then... it's settled. New England gets hit by a sneaky hurricane that no one saw coming... your second sentence could not be any more inaccurate...

There's a lot of work to be done before I would be mildly interested in this setup producing any New English issue. Believe it or not, our significant hits actually have a pretty solid footprint for trouble in place by day 10. This one, in my opinion, does not. Still time to change but I'm not a fan of the large-scale layout at this time.

In the end, we will have to see a more pronounced reflection of lower heights south of the Great Lakes (Ohio Valley area) that can eventually produce a neutral or negative alignment to any trough coming east. Would have to follow system coming southeast out of central Canada to see if that potential eventually exist. Far less worried about the ridge... unless we eventually see signs of Ohio Valley troughing odds are low for a coastal runner! Carolina threat in play moreso.

I hear ya Wiz... it's that historically they almost never move up the coast slowly and tend to move faster than all the models forecast. It's seems to me there almost always a model bias of being too slow when it is all said and done. All that being said, if the we were to get a slow northward moving system, the cool waters would certainly be a killer.

Sometimes the smarter we are the dumber we get! Looking at the SST profiles just south and east of SNE and using that as an "all clear" single is folly! And history bears that out. I don't think Sandy and the 1938 hurricane cared much about the SST. Newfoundland? hell, ask Nova Scotia about that... Almost all of our meaningful hits featured a fall-like pattern transition underway with a digging or negatively tilting trough approaching. For us, it is all about a fast northward moving system that goes from NC to SNE in 12 hours or less, be dammed the SST. We are never talking about a system crawling along at 15 to mph... That's not, nor ever will be how SNE does hurricanes...

In some cases, they do interview them, and request info needed for identification, and family members to contact, if need be...

I hear ya... Just got off the phone with a former student of mine; he is now the Meteorologist in Charge at Tampa NWS... He indicated that if the surge forecast is correct, it would be above any levels in modern time for a portion of the Big Bend area; they have responsibility through Cedar Key before NWS Tallahassee zones takeover. His concern is there are over 2 dozen residents within the max surge zone that have refused to evacuate...

Thanks for the info... right after I sent that post, I saw several sources proving that if the Idalia does indeed hit the area now projected and does produce the level of surge forecast, it will be a once in lifetime or generation event for those folks.

I'm sure it will be for someone... Maybe folks that have not lived along the west coast of Florida and just moved to FL in the past 9 months; babies that were born last fall and later... Although in all seriousness, some of the modeled surge heights for the area most likely to be near and just east of the LF, I think you have to go back a long way to find those surge heights. Of course, it is very much location specific in that big bend area and have not had to look too deeply into surge heights in past storms to hit that area, but 10 to 15' may be record setting it a few spots.

Correct... the reading is actually accurate but it is not representative of the air mass... Just like a high dew point over the mulch bed is accurate for the spot, the local air mass dew point is considerably lower.

Haven't had much time to dig deep, but seen some discussions that they are a bit shallower.

It should be a concern...

Why not! Lol...

I can see that happening... I'd like a modestly above normal Sept. Don't need it to be hot, but low to mid 80's works for me... I think the window for that type of regime will open up during the first half of Sept once this latest troughing episode runs it's course. Hard to believe some of the Plains heat won't eventually mix out a bit across the Upper Midwest & Northeast.

We, myself included, have been saying we can't keep constant trough for weeks now, but the footprint refuses to budge. Eventually it will exit, but I'm not betting it happens in the short term...

Agree... Was very distinct and trackable

Very distinct!

Come on Kev... I'm not saying, nor is anyone else I think, that an extended period of tropical humidity will not overwhelm at least SNE during the second half of August, it might well. But you seem to be indicating the July pattern featuring an incredibly long stretch of high dew pt air mass has continued into early August. It clearly has not. Now there have been model hints of a stronger Bermuda high evolution as we move deeper into August, but those hints have not yet verified nor has the signal gained stronger support. I would tread carefully until we see the persistent Northeast trough relax or retrograde further west, along with a western expansion of the west ATL ridge. It may well happen down the road, but certainly not a lock.

While the July wetness footprint does seem to have folded over into August, I don't recall any 7-day period looking like this first 7-day anomaly of August??? Not really screaming torch? I do expect a rebound of sorts due to occasional periods of high dews and positive overnight mins, but it will take a while to get the monthly departure to normal or above.