FXWX

The vast majority of the ens members are south and east of the op... The op would clearly seem to be an outlier at this time...

Happy with this trend in general... As modeled big hit for eastern / southeastern NY, WOR areas on northeast into northeast Mass. Gets dicey for central CT, but room to work with that setup northward into northeastern Mass. Still room for a more amped look that could trend this to more of an Adirondack' s event. Hoping for some stability in future runs of the Euro...

Will mentioned a bit earlier about this event's modeled trends and lack consistency are not like multiple other big dog events; wiggle room is limited. Most of the biggies had much more agreement across the model schemes 5 to 7 days. I say most, not all. There is still plenty of room for this to be a big event. The pattern is certainly not as stable as I would like to see it at this time. I much rather be debating where the best banding is most likely to setup and how transition lines / coastal front issues will impact snow amounts. Watching the uncertainty about how the confluence plays out and whether or not the spike in western ridging will be too much too soon makes it hard to feel good about a classic big dog event. Still plenty of room for some one to get buried but my first sense back a day or two ago was this had a decent chance to feature a widespread heavy snow... Right now, I'm still optimistic for a decent storm but the coverage of the best snows could be more limited to than first anticipated.

3.5. Burlington, CT. 1,140 ft

Makes you wonder what type of personality disorder makes him want to spend so much time trying to bust on folks and play Debbie Downer... I'm guessing limited friendships?

yep... they are going to keep built up to a minimum and treat...

Nice... just posted about DOT cam in Norfolk showing complete road cover...

30 degrees... steady light / moderate snow; coating on all surfaces... noting snow covered roads on DOT road cams across parts of Litchfield County...

As we enter the Nowcast time frame, the SPC Meso Analysis page shows a very potent / dynamic situation evolving & spreading eastward from OH on across northern PA and western/southern NY; The 700 & 850 fronto & advection layout is impressive; big time omega profile... other than what appears to be somewhat of less than perfect lift through the main DGZ over parts of interior SNE and southern VT/NH, it's just a matter of where the taint occurs; but there is certainly significant room for a real thump in places...

Those used to be so commercial way back in the day. Recently they have become a rarity...

You know you are not alone! I'm sure there are folks who thrive on negative outcomes rooting for the NAM...

Yep...

I would have bet it would have started a trend at least a bit towards the consensus at 18z. But almost nothing. I do admire it's stubbornness... Lol

Really... I believe you, but a bit surprised... all the guys I deal with indicated they only needed one good scraping during the hour or so prior to daybreak and then treatments... even here, one good plow passage and then treatment, at 7 am or so and then it was gone... probably was tough to keep up with in some cases, especially in the predawn hours... once you get a decent base on the roads, it does change the outcome... overnight / predawn hours for the best rates are key this time of the year...

Agree... only thinking about SNE; mainly CT

Sometimes a drunken sailor actually knows what he's talking about...

Also... Ground and road surface temps continue to run warmer than normal for the winter and this has played a significant role with the impacts, or lack there of, in terms of significant or long lasting disruptive travel conditions across many areas. The roads during this past sne snow event gobbled up the snow with one pass of the plows & one treatment.

Agree... if you want to throw in a meso; throw in the rgem for good measure to the compromise. If the NAM wins given the global trends, it will be one of its all time wins... I think we will know as soon as this upcoming 18z cycle whether or not the NAM has any chance. I think the globals are best representing the impacts of the confluence and blocky nature of the setup...

I'm expecting, maybe wrongly, a huge NAM solution flip within 12 hours. Over the years, I'd take consistent rgem over a consistent NAM. Any compromise solution between the euro, gfs, them is nowhere near as warm and blah as the NAM. NAM is in a position to out-duel not just one model, but 3 or 4 other schemes. Maybe it does, but I'm beyond wary...

12z rgem

Yes... several tornado deaths across central FL I believe... Had a friend staying on Marco Island and the squall line passage was worse than any tropical system he had lived through at that time. A plot of the sfc temps across the Deep South during the develop of the Gulf low is freaking stunning. A truly bitter cold air mass that had been coming south out of west-central Canada ended up in LA 2 days later.

The arctic charge into the Gulf states was about as extreme as I have ever seen! People forget the vicious severe weather event that ripped across Florida!

here is the 48 hour GFS ending Sunday 12z

First storm event that allowed folks on Johnnycake Mt. area of Burlington to finally play with their snow toys... PXL_20230228_212830477.TS.mp4

Final here at 1140' in Burlington will be 8.0". Had submitted 7" earlier to BOX but once I got out and measured multiple locations 8 was the best avg.