FXWX

I would always rather play the odds with suppression than pattern dominated by strong southern stream...

Based on recent history it is a valid concern... Kind of the Charlie Brown/ Lucy football scenario...

1,140' will do that... Today I drove to Waterbury for expert witness testimony and there was nary a flake on the ground down there...

Still a nice wintery scene across the high points Burlington, CT... Sunday's 4" snow/sleet holding tight and solid glaze from several freezing rain on trees, etc... My Rainwise anemometer still encased in ice!

January 30, 2022

3.9 Burlington... 1,140'

Lots of lingering moisture with enough lift to keep occasional light snow and additional coatings into predawn hours. Common for Litchfield cty to see these things linger even with poor radar presentation. Drives DPW crews up there crazy across the county since it forces retreatments and the occasional scraping. Most crews will call it quits soon and then come back in prior to bus runs in the morning...

Conservative... Won't go with 3... 1-2 mainly along and north of 84

Yes... Icycles hanging from the porch railings etc...

It's not a pure snow line... It's mainly a mix of sleet and snow... Here is be mainly heavy sleet mixed with snow...

Yep... it will all be based on feedback from local DPW and facility guys...

still an interesting 12 to 14 hour period coming up...

I think we still have a tricky 12 to 14 hour period ahead... not so much about heavy qpf, but lots of variety of types... Image if we just had a "normal" air mass sliding back into the region tonight...

Nice... yes... it was all about good rates and on the right side of the low / mid-level freezing line...

Yep... I would not dismiss the evening and overnight periods' ability to produce some nice additional coverage... I'm 31/32 with pretty steady freezing rain...

31 here... 3.9" before the flip to freezing rain.

Sleetfest here now...

I've got lots of town crews with road cover on one side of town and just rain on the other side of town. Let me know if you start seeing complete road coverage? You should get there soon. Here even the lower elevations (300') in what is called the Lake Garda area now have solid cover!

Yes... It's still a shit show type of storm... probably still some surprises to come..

Burlington, Ct

It's low confidence for a variety of outcomes across most of CT... I'm just happy it's a Sunday event, which greatly lowers my forecasting stress levels...

Agree... I would not dismiss any option at this time... Hoping qpf rates stay healthy Sunday morning...

No, I do not post my client bases info on social media... but you would find them to be closely aligned with the general sentiments of many of the mets on here; discussing the marginal surface air mass, the very marginal 850 temps during the period(s) of hvy precip and how minute changes during these periods could allow for bursts of hvy wet snow in areas that might right now appear to me mostly in all rain or snow/rain mix zone. I also outlined my thoughts about how portions of Lit cty eastward into the high terrain areas of far western HFD cty, northern Tolland cty & northern Windham cty could over-perform some of the numbers on local media snowfall maps. You're in one of the areas likely to see several inch snowfall amount differences within a very short drive. Much of this is highly dependent on precip rates in some locations being able to sustain an isothermal profile. This would have been such as easy forecast with just a seasonable air mass sfc and/or aloft... My original post was that for some storms it's easier to describe using bullet points and no maps, given the tendency for folks to lock into a number on the map and not reading any accompanying narrative... I think you could be good for 6 to 9???

As good as any I've seen... bust potential is big across the higher elevations of Litchfield CTY, western Hartford Cty, and northern Tolland & Windam counites... almost no way to show the possible variations across the northern half of CT on any map. I'm right on the Litchfield Cty border sitting at about 1,140' but a few miles away it 200 to 300' of elevation...????