FXWX

Yep... I agree... it will tough to not go through a formation surge moving into and through the mid-month period. Whether or not that leads to landfalls aways comes down to relatively short term pattern evolutions. Right now, I don't see an ominous EC pattern but that can change quickly.

This is sounding more and more like when we get to mid-January with squat and start screaming about how good Feb and March are looking!

Yes... Yes... Yes!!!

Go the SPC meso analysis page and scroll through the upper air section and the heavy rainfall section... deep-layered southerly flow with high values of precipitable water converging into southwest and southern CT on into parts of central CT... Note the Precipitation potential placement image...

Amazing the number of locally excessive rainfall events we have seen over the past 2 or 3 years across the Northeast.

You are not wrong; in a general sense a true EC threat has a solid fingerprint 5 to 7 days, sometimes 10 days out.

Should noted Ryan H only said "possible scattered" tree / power issues. Did not suggest a widespread issue!

While many don't agree, SNE threats or hits are very easy to see coming given the very limited upper pattern that allows it to happen. As you state, it isn't happening without a deep Ohio Valley trough. Trying to thread the needle with other upper-level setups is always a lost cause. Blocking high off to the east/northeast is helpful, but the OH Valley trough is always the main driver.

Agree... Beryl's remnant highly sheared profiles have consistently produced over the past 60 hours, as it has march northeast! Some of SPC meso products are screaming spinners, focused on central NY.... we've already seen multiple warnings across western NY... I think SPC has this nailed...

Good discussion... I'm always intrigued by severe potential that's preceded by active early morning / daybreak warm front activity. The more robust the morning activity gets the greater the potential for late morning/afternoon clearing / heating.

Multiple trees and across roads / roads closed in Burlington...

Multiple reports of trees and wires down in Litchfield cty.

Great finish to the storm day!!!

Watching SPC Tornado Parameters (Violent Parameter shown) and SPC SREF products...

Tornado Watch incoming

That passed right overhead and that's when I had 46 mph gust...

2.10 inches of rain and max gust of 46 mph at my house in Burlington, CT... Several road and drainage washout and trees down across town...

Spoken like a true hardcore CULT member! Lol

I know a couple of techs and all they can do is go out and check calibration. The vast majority of the time it is a siting or ventilation issue. I think using today's info from the tech we can assume the sensor itself is ok. But its readings during the max insolation time of the day are being impacted by something relative to its immediate location. Its current readings are reflective of only the very immediate location of the sensor, and I mean within a few feet. Would love to see readings 50 / 100 / 200 feet away from the sensor site.

Nothing like a good temperature sensor conspiracy by the deep state... lol

It's the Cape in late May, always have sweatshirts available... While a great day or two can happen, they can flip into a cold / damp scenario in a matter of an hour or two. Cape springs can be very unforgiving!

The live streams from chasers today is unreal! The Wind Farm destruction live video was pretty epic...

Hey John... Been looking for you to jump on this, not that it is a heat burst setup, but at least the first heat tease. Given the un- remarkable spring pattern to date, I look forward to trying to pinpoint if and where some 90 high temps might appear. Certainly not a lock, but I'm ready for a summer pattern and some real convection threats. Hope all is well...