FXWX

Agree... sweeping by just to the east as modeled by the euro op would be quite a bit less interesting and impactful than many might think... 100 to 150 miles further west is a whole different story.

Sandy always had a deep trough modeled into the mix...

There you go... just look north and west for the answer... almost no reason to follow every track update...

Ok... that at least gives us some goal posts to sense his thinking... And I would agree with 20% at this stage but that would be on the low side of me using the word "invested" but I do understand everyone has their own comfort level. Thanks for clarification...

Define invested...

Yup... while we always jerk around all the "possibilities' history tells us 99.9999 % of the time you need what you noted... These systems are like a bomb flooding down the river with a big bend in the river approaching. Unless you can put 1 or 2 things into the river to deflect it across the river to the other bank, its going with the flow (seaward)...

Wouldn't jump on media with this... JB has a big following and post an image of 1938 once every hurricane season... even yesterday there were posts everywhere showing the Korean model redux of 38 prediction. If folks are going to share and posts those outlandish maps, the media is going to run with them...

I know you do... just having a bit of fun.. and one day you will be rewarded... who knows, maybe this is the one...

I should know better than to reply, but you force me... lol... No where does he indicate a hit... all he says it will pass by out "LATITUDE" before the we can exchange air masses! going by at 40/60 or 40/65 does not do anything except monster surf... You are the king of teases Kev, and you know it... lol

Ok... I will now say something positive about the possible threat... I do like the hint of the bottom of approaching trough on the op Euro starting to sag a bit southwest, as the strong short-wave exits quickly into eastern Canada. The more separation from the Canadian short-wave and the base of the trough could allow this feature to amplify further, especially if we feed anymore energy in from the northwest??? If you toggle the last 12-hour period and focus on the bottom of the trough you can get a sense of the potential for the base of the trough to "possibly" come east and foster a bit more west or northwest pull on the track. The faster the short-wave in eastern CT exits the better... Still a long shot overall and plenty of room for escape, but this is an interesting trend overall...

Hmmm... a hint of similarity, but with some significant differences... both had a more of an approaching trough with some capture / tug impacts... Again, not saying it wouldn't be close or interesting, but need to see some trough support... Here are the 500 mb maps for Edna followed by Carol at approach to Carolina coast....

Everything has a shot... even Wiz has a shot at dating Taylor Swift... sorry Wiz but the best I could come up with quickly...

LOL... using Korean model from a post by a guy with "Hurricane Addict" is priceless Kev... Cracks me up...

Pipe dream it might be but the number of hits when you are relying only on a high is even tougher. That almost always has westward model bias that almost never works... not arguing it can allow a close call or a Cape sideswipe, but the history of a big hit without the trough interaction are even rarer... at least something to keep watching; especially for Cape to NS...

I'm a simple guy!!! Lol

I used to always tell my students "Does the door open at the right time / is there something in a position to go through the door". Almost every summer and early fall we see the door wide open but there is nothing in position. We actually do see the tropical door swing open on a regular basis, but the vast majority of the time there is not a system ready to enter. This past July the door to the tropics was wide open for an extended period of time, but as one might expect in July, the tropics were not ready to deliver.

Yup...

Agree 1,000%...

Agree Wolfie... we can never sleep on the threat... and we don't need a Cat 3 at LF to have major impacts. The nature of our hardwood forecast and densely populated region opens the door to widespread long duration power issues even with a solid Cat 1 / 2...

That's why the repeat period is so long... it's like trying to paddle upstream into an increasing strong current; most of the time it succeeds in turning you away. Basic meteorology shows New England is usually fully embedded in the westerlies. I wouldn't say the odds of this getting to the coast is zero, but they are low... could it make a close approach? Yes but work needs to be done to get it to the coast. Still time in the season for another threat or two... actually the odds increase a bit once more vigorous polar short waves start to show up...

We don't... this will be one of those great looking systems that doesn't have a chance of getting to coast. Should put on a nice satellite image show though...

A stronger high may serve to slow the system, possibly even stall it a bit. In past similar situations, a slowing/blocked or stalling setup could increase the threat to the Carolinas; maybe hold it southeast of the Carolinas until a bigger trough comes along to grab it. Not 100% out of the question that a strong high wouldn't direct it into the Carolinas and whatever remains comes northeast as a blustery tropical rain event. Not very likely but on the list of possibilities if the high goes crazy. Even if the high becomes a blocker, you still need the type of MW trough I've talked about to get SNE in trouble otherwise it becomes Carolina hit and rains itself over TN/OH.

Private consulting meteorologist...

Hey Kev, I'd like a good tropical just as much as any other guy! I love the excitement the approach a hurricane threat to the East Coast can bring. And I will be monitoring for changes and trends. But we will need to see very significant pattern trends with any evolving MW trough in the next 48 hours or so... If there is even any modest southwest flow component to the right side of the trough, this will turn seaward when it nears the coast, if it makes it that far west. You need neutral trough alignment at least; ideally a bit of a slight negative tilt. Also, be very wary of any model attempts at a capture into the trough as it gets close to the coast... That almost has to have a full-blown negative trough approaching to workout. I'd love to see it and will jump onboard if trends suggest it; hell, a good hurricane hit threat is great for my business... I have a whole house / office generator and weeks of propane, no trees anywhere near my house, so a can dela with the disruptions a good hit would produce. Keep the faith Kev... you never know???

IMHO, many, not all, folks are looking in the wrong direction... constantly looking seaward to follow slightest change in modeled track is almost pointless. Just turn around and monitor the upper layout trends from the lower Great Lakes / TN Valley areas eastward to the coast. Unless there are significant changes in the that area, this thing will recurve... now it may tease the EC, and we could wake up to a nice-looking storm south of New England, but it will be escaping seaward... While some lower heights are now modeled across the Great Lakes / Midwest area, it is not sufficient for just a mean trough approaching the EC, it has to be one that features at least a neutral alignment with at least a hint of negativity. I will get interested if and when that happens, but it is not there yet...