FXWX

I agree HUGE is likely inappropriate, I also think using the term "Nor'easter" in the thread title was a good way to treat the threat. I have become a bit more interested even though this will be a storm passing east of the Cape, which usually does not get me overly interested. My interest is peaked by the strong winds that continue to be modeled for the 900 / 925 mb levels. This will be gradient driven and the only question for eastern portions of CT/RI and eastern Mass, excluding the Cape, is how efficient is the mixing? Given the progged wind fields, a well-mixed event will lead to pretty widespread power issues given current status of trees (still lots of leaves) & very wet ground surfaces in eastern sections of SNE, eastern CT/RI/inside the 495 corridor of Mass. So, no major hurricane hit, but still solid hit for Cape Cod and coastal eastern Mass... Disruptive wind gusts for interior eastern portions of SNE, "IF" mixing become efficient. If we do not see decent mixing then this will end-up pretty meh for anyone away from the coast.

Very impressive 900 mb wind field at 12z Saturday; euro...

At this time, I would stick close to 40-45 gust range until confident of 925 mb winds and mixing potential. Using some of the basic rules we'd use for predicting strong winds on the backside of nor'easters is the way to go. I remember Gustav and it's not a bad analog if mixing continues to look good. Given saturated ground surfaces and fully leafed out trees, issues will arise if we see consistent winds 40+. Assuming it has started it's transition when it approaches the latitude of the Cape, I think the strong wind expansion due the gradient tightening will make into at least eastern CT... more uncertain further west. Still pieces of the puzzle to figure out.

What do you think is the over / under max wind for Tolland?

Agree.... For us in CT I'd treat this like mod/strong cold season nor'easter event. Profiles show a decent mixing potential... nothing crazy but some decent gusts... even for the Cape they experience at least a couple systems a year with comparable winds...

Agree... It is hard enough to do when we do have a deep trough since many more times than not the timing of the trough is such that it actually acts as a kicker and sends it seaward. We are trying to get a cane to bend back into the New England coast without a perfectly timed strong trough by using the western Atlantic upper pattern to do the trick... Incredibly hard! Impossible no, but boy is that a tough thing to do... most of the time our threats start out south of us at ~73 west and we are hoping they can maintain enough of a north/northeast heading to make it into SNE. Coming north when starting east of 70 west is not a bet I would ever take. It is fun watching the models tease us with a few ensemble members jogging west instead of just sending it seaward, but when push comes to shove these systems almost always (not 100%) trend east in the end... NS is still wide-open for trough though...

Not ruling anything out, but just looking for a hint of historical support... always room fota first time?

Except 38 came abreast of NC... but if you are looking for SNE hurricane action it almost has to have a deep-layered tropical flow precede it... it's just so hard to get a hurricane tracking north from east of 70w to bend back into New England. I would never say impossible, but it's tough enough to get a good hit when a storm comes abreast of NC, nevermind just east of 70w. I haven't had the time to fully research it, but if anyone has map of a similar track that hit SNE, I'd love to see it...

exactly!!!

We go from chasing a couple ensemble members every day with no op support to chasing an operational run with almost zero ensemble support!!!

Great lightning show across the region last night! When we built our new house 3 years ago, I made sure it had tons of big window areas... my weather office has 2 walls that are essentially all window... here's the view last evening as seen from my office as the New Haven County storm came northward into the Burlington CT area. Had to cut video down but you get the idea... PXL_20230909_004459741.TS~2.mp4

Do you have the link to Box Hurricane guidelines you posted? Looked on BOX webpage but couldn't find it?

If the modeled large scale winter pattern was consistently modeled and never really deviated, then I would suggest it would do ok with the expected winter storm. I never saw the GFS or European forecast a large scale pattern developing that would have been favorable for Lee to make a LF...

No changes is correct... it never had a decent shot at getting to the coast... chasing individual oddball ensemble members is not what I would call good trends continuing...

When it misses to the east, he will say "at least my idea had merit!"

Irresponsible in IMHO

Can and often do happen.

I hear ya... nothing is every 100% certain.

Probably not... my experience is that a track like the euro op does not live up to the modeled billing. Usually the west side wind field doesn't live up the billing. Not trying to be a kill joy, but my experience says the western wind field with that forecast track will disappoint west of the immediate eastern Mass / Cape area...

If it there were to be more impressive trough tugging on it, then yes... big hit. Over the many years I've dealt with northward moving hurricanes, I almost always bet a bit of a westward model track bias unless there is trough really holding it on a due north track or one going negative to assist in pulling it a bit northwest. Without that, the ridge has to be powerful and actually increasingly in strength to hold it on a due north track. Otherwise the tendency is for a fade east of the modeled track as it gets north of the Hatteras latitude. Just from personal experience...

Agree... sweeping by just to the east as modeled by the euro op would be quite a bit less interesting and impactful than many might think... 100 to 150 miles further west is a whole different story.

Sandy always had a deep trough modeled into the mix...

There you go... just look north and west for the answer... almost no reason to follow every track update...

Ok... that at least gives us some goal posts to sense his thinking... And I would agree with 20% at this stage but that would be on the low side of me using the word "invested" but I do understand everyone has their own comfort level. Thanks for clarification...

Define invested...