FXWX

Can you send link to this page at BOX... cannot locate it for some frigg'n reason...

Quite the snow burst for portions of central and eastern PA for the past few hours...

Probably need to revisit 2nd highlighted wind potential period; window probably opens up for that by very late morning into early / mid afternoon period. Models will waffle a bit with each run but overall signal has been pretty steady. In these setups a degree or two change in the vertical profile can make all the difference between a pretty run of the mill event and a widespread issue.

For CT, I've hit the predawn (2 to 5 am) period pretty hard and then again the late afternoon early evening period.

Yep...

Always a crap shoot with southerly or southeasterly potential high wind events; many don't verify but as a forecaster you have layout the risks, but without hyping. Give me a gradient driven northwest flow event anytime. I wouldn't be shocked if the southwest / west strong wind later Friday ends up stealing the thunder from the south/southeast wind threat period.

I think lots of folks have a miss understanding of what wind gust level causes damage and power issues across SNE. No one is suggesting we are looking at 55 mph sustained winds. But if any particular location hits 50 to 55 mph gust, damage will occur. It may not be widespread but there will be damage to trees in the 50-55 mph gust area. The question is how widespread will 55 mph gusts be. Obviously, if an area sees multiple 50 to 55 gusts, the amount of tree damage will increase. Also, 50-55 mph gusts occurring at tree top level is all you need. That wind speed is rarely verified at ground level. The point is 50 to 55 mph wind gust at tree top level is not meh in this region. Even one 55 mph gusts is going to produce at least some damage in the area of occurrence. The question is how frequent are 50+ mph gusts and is the coverage of the 50-55 gusts isolated, scattered or widespread.

Pull the plug... Have a 21k Generac... Wonderful peace of mind... Has come in handy over the past 10 years... Don't regret the purchase at all...

I've lost the link to this product; would you be kind enough to send url? Don't see the link on main BOX page?

Interesting phrasing; "first few weeks of January"??? Didn't know any month could have "first few weeks"!!!!

No... At least with those first 2 options, st least you get some actual weather!

5.0 here in Burlington at 1140'... just saw a great pic from one of my clients with 8" in Winsted...

And that would put you right into the range the vast majority of forecasts had... 3 is fine with me...

Agree...

It appears the best combo of dynamics & moisture may have peaked across CT? Visibilities coming up across the region. Still several more hours of snow to go, but best accumulation rates "maybe" over?

3 locations in Burlington, CT reporting trees and wires down... Highest gusts so far at my house is 43 mph!!!

Exactly

I agree... I'm not absolving anyone from blame... Sometimes it's a combination of issues, poor forecast decision, lack of threat awareness, or bad decision making process... That's why I love the overly cautious DOT groups... Obviously something was wrong with how it was handled this morning in Dendrite's area.

Just my 2 cents... I deal with some DOT crews, none in that area. Some have private mets, not all. I find the range of how proactive the person in charge of sending crews out is can vary from incredibly proactive (pretreating when there is even a very minimal threat) to very laid back and not wanting to pretreat or send crews out until they actually get calls of trouble from state or local police reports. The private Mets don't make the call, the decision is always with the DOT supervisor. I can tell you from experience that can be maddening. No matter what the NWS issues, the call is the supervisor's to make. I can't tell you how many times I've recommended pre-treatments and heard comments about budgets or the desire to wait until police call! On the other hand I have clients that pre-treat at any hint of an issue. Of course then they get calls for wasting money from the public....

This times 1000!!!!

Have a great holiday Kev... Enjoy the family... The years just fly by... After 40 years, I have zero interest in changing the name; haven't faxed in 20 years but in no mood to change all the business paper work, email addresses, etc. Hard to believe when I started the business, faxing was just starting to be used for realtime communication... Stay well... Don't worry, December will turn out just fine... Lol

I good therapist would tell you to walk away from the negative force... One you engage, he's got ya... Lol

Yes it does!

The inconsistency is baffling... no reason for it...

lol