FXWX
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Those used to be so commercial way back in the day. Recently they have become a rarity... -
You know you are not alone! I'm sure there are folks who thrive on negative outcomes rooting for the NAM...
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I would have bet it would have started a trend at least a bit towards the consensus at 18z. But almost nothing. I do admire it's stubbornness... Lol
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Really... I believe you, but a bit surprised... all the guys I deal with indicated they only needed one good scraping during the hour or so prior to daybreak and then treatments... even here, one good plow passage and then treatment, at 7 am or so and then it was gone... probably was tough to keep up with in some cases, especially in the predawn hours... once you get a decent base on the roads, it does change the outcome... overnight / predawn hours for the best rates are key this time of the year...
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Agree... only thinking about SNE; mainly CT
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Sometimes a drunken sailor actually knows what he's talking about...
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Also... Ground and road surface temps continue to run warmer than normal for the winter and this has played a significant role with the impacts, or lack there of, in terms of significant or long lasting disruptive travel conditions across many areas. The roads during this past sne snow event gobbled up the snow with one pass of the plows & one treatment.
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Agree... if you want to throw in a meso; throw in the rgem for good measure to the compromise. If the NAM wins given the global trends, it will be one of its all time wins... I think we will know as soon as this upcoming 18z cycle whether or not the NAM has any chance. I think the globals are best representing the impacts of the confluence and blocky nature of the setup...
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I'm expecting, maybe wrongly, a huge NAM solution flip within 12 hours. Over the years, I'd take consistent rgem over a consistent NAM. Any compromise solution between the euro, gfs, them is nowhere near as warm and blah as the NAM. NAM is in a position to out-duel not just one model, but 3 or 4 other schemes. Maybe it does, but I'm beyond wary...
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Yes... several tornado deaths across central FL I believe... Had a friend staying on Marco Island and the squall line passage was worse than any tropical system he had lived through at that time. A plot of the sfc temps across the Deep South during the develop of the Gulf low is freaking stunning. A truly bitter cold air mass that had been coming south out of west-central Canada ended up in LA 2 days later.
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The arctic charge into the Gulf states was about as extreme as I have ever seen! People forget the vicious severe weather event that ripped across Florida!
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here is the 48 hour GFS ending Sunday 12z
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First storm event that allowed folks on Johnnycake Mt. area of Burlington to finally play with their snow toys... PXL_20230228_212830477.TS.mp4
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Final here at 1140' in Burlington will be 8.0". Had submitted 7" earlier to BOX but once I got out and measured multiple locations 8 was the best avg.
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Wide range of amounts across southern CT; seeing some decent totals further south than you in the latest OKX PNS
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7.0 inches... ongoing light snow. 25 degrees; Lots of blowing and drifting; bare ground to 2-ft drifts..
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I would not use it for my official measurement, but my Stratus tube usually is a fair first estimate... Lots of blowing and drifting always makes it tough here
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Decent drifting across the backyard.
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Wind ripping across the Burlington area... PXL_20230228_092751297.TS.mp4
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Agree... While I still sometimes anxiously await the arrival of the Euro, I'm getting pretty comfortable dealing with the combo of the GFS & mesos.
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Ahead tonight's / Tuesday event, ice continues to hang tough in the high terrain areas of western Hartford County...
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I do not like the "+" without text explaining what it means... Whenever I've used a + sign I will state exactly what I am trying to convey; 4 to 6+ most areas will be in the 4 to 6 inch range but there could be a couple of small pockets that reach 6 to 7 inch range. I rarely do it, but if I do, I always explain it... 4 to 6+ may allow folks to think you are thinking 10 inches...
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Agree... I always like the high terrain areas of western Fairfield County in these setups...
