FXWX

Couple of things... The other day I suggested there would be a stalling / capture earlier than modeled. I now think the Euro is too fast with it and would expect it to be northeast of what it is now showing. Secondly, I agree that comparisons to 78 need to be tempered; not flushed but tempered a bit, especially as it relates to the point of capture / stall. Third, trying to get very specific about locations of CF, deformation band(s) and related screw zones (relatively speaking) needs to be put on the back burner for a bit until 700 circulation center becomes locked in for a couple of cycles. Lastly, modeled inflow is so intense, I will almost always kick deformation / fronto zones a bit west of modeling.

Yes they did... But when I look at the evolution at 500, my hedge would be an earlier (slightly) stall / capture. Not that it will make a big difference and not trying to suggest the storm will not be monster over a large area of eastern zones... Just right now I'd hedge a bit earlier. Probably meaningless for many areas whether it does or doesn't.

If the volatility / explosive deepening does indeed verify, which seems more likely than not, I would expect the slowing / stalling to actually occur a bit earlier than being model. I would hedge the slowing and explosive deepening occurring a tad further south of where it is modeled.

That's a perfect and optimistic response. Maybe the euro signs a great free agent to save the season.

The again, like Bill Parcells said, "you are what your record says you are!' And right now, Euro is not going to the 2021-22 winter storm forecasting playoffs...

1.5 in Burlington

It is pretty funny that the Euro has become almost unreliable in the 3 (maybe 2) to 10 day range, but its weeklies are looked at as if they have a long track record of being correct, which they don't. They did ok with seeing some of the January cold but have been brutally wrong many times. They also tend to be very unstable. The one thing going for this latest set is that it fits the scenario of many of the La Nina based winter forecasts, which strongly suggested February would trend very warm into the midmonth period before flipping to cold at the end on into March. Probably the biggest thing they have going for them right now, is that they are predicting warmth, which rarely doesn't verify these days.

Yep... I've called it a mini flash freeze; not a dramatic one for sure, but just enough to cause issues, especially with ground temps right under road surfaces running very cold.

Compared to the last system, I'd rather be right here with the mid-level features modeled southeast of SNE; at no time last week did the modeling show the 700-center passing south or even right over us... Given the setup, we could put up with a fair amount of phasing and still be ok... Off topic, but if the Euro has a clue, east-central North Carolina would see a power-wrecking ice storm...

I'm never comfortable betting against Belichick! I find the setup and modeling suite fascinating? It's as if the Euro is somehow trying like hell to correct closer to what the large pattern and analogs suggested days ago, but nobody believes it!

Why not; it's blamed for everything else...

Agree...

Good post about the CIPS grouping for this storm... I tend to not get overly frustrated or pissed off when a storm does not play-out the way I envisioned or forecast... I've been doing this for too many years to get emotionally involved or bitch when a storm forecast trends away from my original thoughts. But this storm, or should I say the modeling trends, have managed to pissed me off a bit. I do a lot of analog assessment (CIPS & Kocin storms) when a major storm seems to have a chance of developing for the Northeast; in particular SNE. This one is frustrating for the reasons you outlined above. The modeled forecasts for this storm just do not follow the history of upper air / surface setups like this? If you go look at the Feb. 14-17, 1958 event, it is almost a perfect overlay at 500 mb & sfc to what is now underway. The CIPS analogs are remarkably consistent in their assessment of what the vast number of similar setups produced. I have rarely seen (probably never) an analog storm pattern show such different outcomes compared to the current suite of modeling, and I find it a bit unsettling. In the back of my mind, I almost expect there to be a flip back closer to the analog outcome. But then I come back to reality and don't see any positive trends on the major modeling trends. This system appears to be one that will almost completely break away from where my analog method steered me...

Too many folks are so busy comparing the minor nuisances of every 6-hour model run that they don't take the time to read and comprehend a very clear-cut statement! Nothing in your original headline & post suggested you were screaming "here comes the monster"...

For those of you with the Kocin / Uccellini Northeast Snowstorms Volume II - The Card book available, check out the Feb. 15-17, 1958 storm. Very close surface and 500 mb match for the pre-storm 48 hours period onward to the day of the event. The result was widespread 9 to 16" amounts across SNE with a heavy deformation band of 20 to 36 inches running northeast across eastern PA, eastern NY on into srn VT / central NH... It was a slower mover than the upcoming event is likely to be, but good features analog match?

7.0 here in Burlington, CT (1,140')...

That's all I want...

Those are the types of features that you (we collectively) always need to use when looking at a raw qpf output, and then make appropriate adjustments...

That's a joke... and a lot of BS!!!

In CT, Mass, including Cape it is all Covid related... None due to weather issues...

Anyone having slow connection issues with WXBell model section?

Back edge getting ready to come through here... calling it 1.1"...

Approaching the 1-inch line here in Burlington, CT

Agree... Still close call for northern CT with respect to seeing measurable s/ip, but more wiggle room with 12z euro trends. Overall a pretty messy mix but front-end dump has improved.

I hear ya, and it may well trend into a goner. I certainly would not lay any money down on it; likely gets answered with the 0z run...