FXWX

My message to the energy groups I deal with has been the following: the cold second half of Nov. would moderate at month's end and early December would see the continuation of the moderating trend, but not a blow torch pattern like some of the most recent Decembers. While the Pacific will go through an ugly look for a bit during early December, I think some weak to moderate -NAO, or just some higher than normal heights across NAO sector will help keep Northeast moderation during early December in check; moderation yes; extended torch no; at least not on the scale of some recent Decembers. I think the pattern post from about December 10th onward to trend at least normal with the door opening back up for at least periods of somewhat colder than normal conditions. Right now, I think hype about December being lost are way off base. It may not be a December of yore, but second half will be decent, just not historic...

Given the very good snow making temperatures, in general, they would actually prefer a frontal passage with a mainly dry weekend...

Heavy sleet in Burlington, CT... Actually quite impressive...

PXL_20221116_002200959.TS.mp4 Snow flying in Burlington, CT

The Dark Web!

Note there is no quantification of what "winter weather" risk entails... Is it a coating, a couple of inches, a foot of snow??? Or is just some flakes in the air a a few pellets bouncing around? Meaningless graphic in me eyes...

While I agreed with general timing of the pattern transition, also thought it would likely trend later as we got closer. That is obviously not the case. The one caution I would urge though is be wary of how firmly New England gets into the solidly colder than normal zone. It is very common during La Niña events for the core of the cold be anchored well west of New England. The euro ens (above) and other products clearly show this tendency. While sitting on the eastern edge of the cold shield could allow for an active start to the winter storm season for us, it could limit our early season snow potential, as favored storm track could be through or west of New England??? Just a thought… I’d like to see the core of the cold anomaly positioned over the Midwest / Great Lakes region.

Might be my favorite quote ever about using 10 mb level... Lol... Actually put a smile on my face...

Yes... And I'm sure we are leaving out several other favorite bones to pick...

Then we would have to listen to 9 days complaints about whether or not the high would slip offshore to early, or block the northward push of moisture into nrn New Eng, as well as where the coastal front will setup; screw zones... etc... My head hurts just thinking about it!!! Lol

I still hear warm fall periods referred to as Indian Summer by mets... I use all the time during warm fall periods in my daily updates to my clients... Have never been approached about it having a negative connotation. You might be confusing the Columbus Day issue, which has been a sticking point in some areas given Columbus writings stating his thoughts about indians being the perfect slave, and/or being easily slaughtered. Getting back to Indian Summer, the research I've seen references the fact the local natives indicated to settlers that there was time for more harvesting after the initial cold of early fall since it was often followed by a warm period(s); thus Indian Summer. Indians were aware of this tendency to see warm periods after early fall cold.

On a large computer screen (laptop or desktop) it's tremendous...

Yes

Absolutely no argument from me! Not looking to get into all the well known specifics, but it is flourishing in many industries; public and private. It is all about maintaining a revenue stream regardless of truth or facts...

Agree 100%... He just moves on from one failed hype to the next... very predictable scenario... every year there is at least 1, if not multiple mentions of Hazel, the 38 storm and other historic events. Compared to a decade or 2 ago, his credibility is shot...

Don't worry some storm will form and miss by 1000 miles but he will use it to say "see my forecast had merit"....he is far more predictable than any hurricane.

Nobody had freezes across CT Friday; there will be upper 50's for highs across most of elevated CT... Ryan's number likely reflects the highs for metro areas as well as I-91 corridor...

Hey Walt my interest has certainly risen over the past 24 hrs for potential big totals across SNE... Hedging closer to Tue/Wed, but not trying to get too specific right now. Several overlapping, relatively weak features at the moment that in the past were tip offs to a big rain event. Been waiting for the great flip from drought to an excessive rain event to show itself. Will be interesting to see overnight trends...

As depicted, that would be a fish storm...

Tip... When you have a second, check your messages.

Agree... Also think the long slog back towards more frequent widespread rain events for SNE... It wouldn't be a flip the switch pattern change to a wetter pattern, but I'm encouraged by what I see in terms of rainfall trends down the road.

Looking back at the velocity scans, I doubt there are many NWS forecasters that would have warned on that cell. I think calling it more of a landspout is correct; probably helped along by just enough terrain induced rotation.

It's almost impossible in these types of flows to get abundant sunshine across SNE... Cloud cover is usually fairly widespread. That being said, nature of the atmosphere is still decent for some severe events from northern NJ northeast into southwest CT. SPC meso analysis is highlighting southeastern NY into southwest CT for an elevated spin-up risk over the next couple of hours. Given low lcl's I would closely monitor any organized cells moving across that area? Could see a non-warned event or a late warned event.

"it is clear there is no interest in Meteorology" Truer words have never been spoken!!!

Absolutely correct Wiz... One of the most useless discussions in New England weather forum is the drought, endless Stein chatter. Lack of exciting severe wx or hurricane threats or truly hot periods pushes folks to spend endless time on New England faux drought crap.