FXWX

Come on Kev... I'm not saying, nor is anyone else I think, that an extended period of tropical humidity will not overwhelm at least SNE during the second half of August, it might well. But you seem to be indicating the July pattern featuring an incredibly long stretch of high dew pt air mass has continued into early August. It clearly has not. Now there have been model hints of a stronger Bermuda high evolution as we move deeper into August, but those hints have not yet verified nor has the signal gained stronger support. I would tread carefully until we see the persistent Northeast trough relax or retrograde further west, along with a western expansion of the west ATL ridge. It may well happen down the road, but certainly not a lock.

While the July wetness footprint does seem to have folded over into August, I don't recall any 7-day period looking like this first 7-day anomaly of August??? Not really screaming torch? I do expect a rebound of sorts due to occasional periods of high dews and positive overnight mins, but it will take a while to get the monthly departure to normal or above.

Yes sir! Ryan has always been great on getting ahead of the curve of these events. Also, I've noticed BOX being more and more proactive with them as well compared to several years ago..

As noted, once into the fall season, mid September onward, low & mid level jet speeds start increasing steadily with the corresponding shear values quickly responding. The negative cold water impacts of early summer events are no longer a player. Given the number of these events we have seen over the past several years and the steadily increasing SST, I would expect these types of events to become even more common in the years to come. And while we await a long overdue classic EML / northwest flow event, these late summer / fall events may become more impressive with time???

Agree

Looks like a kinda road trip to PA day???

Exactly... It might be a partial pattern driver, how much no one really knows, but more importantly it can be an "enhancer" of sorts when a particular event occurs.

Yep... SST only come seriously into play when you have a viable disturbance and/or large scale features favorable for development.

I would take my chances with a 09-10 redux anytime! Knowing how very slight shifts in a pattern like that could easily produce a big SNE winter, I'd roll the dice!

2.68 inches so far today here....

Route 4 / Vineyard RD

Tree through roof in Burlington CT

A little noisy in the weather office as the next cell sweeps through... PXL_20230729_225737761.TS.mp4

"any", not and...

This was the southwest flank of HFD county storm. Hard to detect and strong rotation but at least a hint... PXL_20230729_173140009.TS.mp4

1.69 rain total so far at my location in Burlington...

That looks like one of those front-end bowing line spin up deals...

They did that just for Kev

Warned cluster moving across southwest Mass and northwestern CT border looks like a wind damage producer... also would not be shocked it gets tornado warned as it moves further east!

As has been pointed out by Wiz, greatest severe potential likely runs across eastern / northeastern Mass; at least in terms of tornado potential. While the SPC meso analysis tornado paraments are far from perfect, they do act as a good guide as to what areas to focus on when storms are moving into & across the region. Almost all of the of the tornado parameters they are generating now continue to bull's eye eastern & northeastern Mass. generate

Spindle Hill Road, Wolcott, CT

Agree big time on both issues...

Sometimes forecasters have to just be honest... Lol... Today is already different than I expected and I'm not sure how it plays out? Just going to watch short term trends for a bit longer...

You might want to survey summertime businesses about that "best summer ever" comment? Also, do you keep your air off and and your windows wide open so you can experience your best summer ever 24/7? Lol