FXWX

We go from chasing a couple ensemble members every day with no op support to chasing an operational run with almost zero ensemble support!!!

Great lightning show across the region last night! When we built our new house 3 years ago, I made sure it had tons of big window areas... my weather office has 2 walls that are essentially all window... here's the view last evening as seen from my office as the New Haven County storm came northward into the Burlington CT area. Had to cut video down but you get the idea... PXL_20230909_004459741.TS~2.mp4

Do you have the link to Box Hurricane guidelines you posted? Looked on BOX webpage but couldn't find it?

If the modeled large scale winter pattern was consistently modeled and never really deviated, then I would suggest it would do ok with the expected winter storm. I never saw the GFS or European forecast a large scale pattern developing that would have been favorable for Lee to make a LF...

No changes is correct... it never had a decent shot at getting to the coast... chasing individual oddball ensemble members is not what I would call good trends continuing...

When it misses to the east, he will say "at least my idea had merit!"

Irresponsible in IMHO

Can and often do happen.

I hear ya... nothing is every 100% certain.

Probably not... my experience is that a track like the euro op does not live up to the modeled billing. Usually the west side wind field doesn't live up the billing. Not trying to be a kill joy, but my experience says the western wind field with that forecast track will disappoint west of the immediate eastern Mass / Cape area...

If it there were to be more impressive trough tugging on it, then yes... big hit. Over the many years I've dealt with northward moving hurricanes, I almost always bet a bit of a westward model track bias unless there is trough really holding it on a due north track or one going negative to assist in pulling it a bit northwest. Without that, the ridge has to be powerful and actually increasingly in strength to hold it on a due north track. Otherwise the tendency is for a fade east of the modeled track as it gets north of the Hatteras latitude. Just from personal experience...

Agree... sweeping by just to the east as modeled by the euro op would be quite a bit less interesting and impactful than many might think... 100 to 150 miles further west is a whole different story.

Sandy always had a deep trough modeled into the mix...

There you go... just look north and west for the answer... almost no reason to follow every track update...

Ok... that at least gives us some goal posts to sense his thinking... And I would agree with 20% at this stage but that would be on the low side of me using the word "invested" but I do understand everyone has their own comfort level. Thanks for clarification...

Define invested...

Yup... while we always jerk around all the "possibilities' history tells us 99.9999 % of the time you need what you noted... These systems are like a bomb flooding down the river with a big bend in the river approaching. Unless you can put 1 or 2 things into the river to deflect it across the river to the other bank, its going with the flow (seaward)...

Wouldn't jump on media with this... JB has a big following and post an image of 1938 once every hurricane season... even yesterday there were posts everywhere showing the Korean model redux of 38 prediction. If folks are going to share and posts those outlandish maps, the media is going to run with them...

I know you do... just having a bit of fun.. and one day you will be rewarded... who knows, maybe this is the one...

I should know better than to reply, but you force me... lol... No where does he indicate a hit... all he says it will pass by out "LATITUDE" before the we can exchange air masses! going by at 40/60 or 40/65 does not do anything except monster surf... You are the king of teases Kev, and you know it... lol

Ok... I will now say something positive about the possible threat... I do like the hint of the bottom of approaching trough on the op Euro starting to sag a bit southwest, as the strong short-wave exits quickly into eastern Canada. The more separation from the Canadian short-wave and the base of the trough could allow this feature to amplify further, especially if we feed anymore energy in from the northwest??? If you toggle the last 12-hour period and focus on the bottom of the trough you can get a sense of the potential for the base of the trough to "possibly" come east and foster a bit more west or northwest pull on the track. The faster the short-wave in eastern CT exits the better... Still a long shot overall and plenty of room for escape, but this is an interesting trend overall...

Hmmm... a hint of similarity, but with some significant differences... both had a more of an approaching trough with some capture / tug impacts... Again, not saying it wouldn't be close or interesting, but need to see some trough support... Here are the 500 mb maps for Edna followed by Carol at approach to Carolina coast....

Everything has a shot... even Wiz has a shot at dating Taylor Swift... sorry Wiz but the best I could come up with quickly...

LOL... using Korean model from a post by a guy with "Hurricane Addict" is priceless Kev... Cracks me up...

Pipe dream it might be but the number of hits when you are relying only on a high is even tougher. That almost always has westward model bias that almost never works... not arguing it can allow a close call or a Cape sideswipe, but the history of a big hit without the trough interaction are even rarer... at least something to keep watching; especially for Cape to NS...