FXWX

Hard to argue that point of view; lol Kev will manage to stress no matter which way this trends.

I think that is a bit premature for the northern third of CT; I would still keep the forecast close to the vest and leave some wiggle room in my forecast for northern CT; no reason to hype for sure, but certainly room for measurable across the northern third of CT. Goner implies there is no room for this to trend into at least a low-grade event for northern CT.

I doubt it... Hopefully the warnings were so good, which they were that folks got into sturdy shelters; although given the likelihood this was an EF 3 or 4, not sure they could have completely escaped without numerous injuries???

Incredible TDS's this evening! Horrible situation.

2.0 Burlington

Yep... Most modeling showed nw CT with only trace amounts to 0.5".

Close to 2" Burlington...

Jerry, as a fellow vertigo sufferer, it's sometimes hard to explain to someone who has not experienced a real nasty event, how bad and scary / unsettling an episode can be. Most of my episodes are mild, but every several years a bad one will hit out of nowhere. After a horrible event a few years ago, a doctor showed me a video showing how to stop or at least temper the event if you sense one is starting. I'm sure you can find it online by googling "exercise for vertigo". I have used it a couple of times since, and it really settled the event down. The one I've used with success is the one by Dr. Foster... Stay well...

That's the key for CT folks... you need to get the upper features to go at least as far south as LI Sound... cannot go right over our heads...

As for the CT outcome, the modeled track of the upper features; especially the 700/850 tracks, are far from ideal for big snows across most of CT, RI and southeastern Mass... decent front-end burst possible and some wrap-around action late, but as modeled those 700 & 850 center tracks have to come considerably further south to offer a decent shot at mod/hvy amounts south of the pike. Quick transition to mixed and rain if those tracks verify. Further north, very dynamic event is on the table.

Using BDL... 2015 Trace... 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020

Correction "I use"

My experience is Kp of 7 or better. Kp of 6 I get interested, but 7 is my go to number. I dues the Space Weather. com alert system and have my text alerts start at 6,,, The 2003 event was a Kp of 9... It was also exceptionally early in the evening for our area. I was following reports form overseas during the late afternoon and once it exploded across Newfoundland with the Kp getting to 9, I called friends and family and told them to get ready to go outside. You could see the glowing red light from inside your house here in western Connecticut.

NWS EDD

Several +100 mph reports across Cape...

I was just going to post that... nice graphic and think it is a solid call right now with time for tweaking in the am...

Interesting to note that while there are some hints of an eastward trend, a loop of the Northeast radar composite nicely shows showers across central & western NY heading west/northwest; strongly implying the modeled tug or bend back to the northwest as Henri is likely as it approaches LI.

Hey Scott... I know you in particular have been hitting the pressure gradient or lack thereof hard with respect to the apparent confined / non-expanding wind field as Henri comes north into SNE. That appears to be the case and it will be interesting to see if that is being correctly model, or there ends up being a bit more expansive than currently shown. The 925 wind field trends certainly suggest the lack of a tight gradient on its eastern flank will decrease the size of the damaging wind threat east of the track. My comment was more related to just frequent comments about model track shifts with only little note of the surrounding large-scale pattern trends. But I have noted your correct assessment of the gradient issue and its relationship to apparent less than normal wind expansion. Certainly not a classic New England hurricane pattern with a wide open south to north flow channel sucking a storm into SNE. More of a baby Sandy look. I'm not on here all that frequently and likely missed others commenting about the pattern trends & gradient issue.

Just my 2-cents, but way too much emphasis on every tiny track or intensity change on every 6 hour model run. Not enough emphasis on the trends of the strength and physical layout of the west Atl. ridge to Henri's north and east, as well as the behavior of the OV upper level trough. Henri does not exist in a vacuum. It will only go where other large-scale features allow it to go. Closely monitor the position and changes & pressure tendencies of the Atlantic ridge's isobaric pattern. You have to continually ask yourself, does the modeled track make sense given the layout of the large-scale surface and upper air pressure / height pattern.

Yes... nothing to organize & sustain t-storms; these are pure pulse / air mass cells. Weakening is not related to any sea breeze influence; air feeding into the cluster is upper 80's with +70 dp. Would not be surprised by a sneaky outflow boundary or two allowing a couple of additional cells to pop...

Agree...

Hmmm... could it be related to GW / HC issues some folks on a particular wx forum have been talking about for years? lol...

Well, its not my forecast... I only monitor sst and modeling trends. I was only commenting on the fact that the CPC discussion didn't indicate a strong event was likely. I leave enso forecast up to folks with a heck of a lot more expertise in that field than I have. Given we are only in mid-summer, I would never rule anything out.

Over the years, I've never been overly worried about a weak La Nina; they can workout ok for New England. Trying to simplify a winter outlook based almost solely on the enso is foolhardy, especially given the recent trend of winter enso events not adhering to many of the rule of thumb winter composites. Old rules may not be as valid, as we once thought???

Didn't see anything in their discussion indicating strong event? Modeling trends are mainly on the weak side overall, which has been the expectation for quite a while now...