FXWX

I agree

Thanks, Will... at least if this goes bad, we will have something to try to blame... I'm just trying to wrap my head around physically how long and effect a dual structure could survive... sounds like it would not be long. Thus, the impact may not be significant.

I'm wondering if we are getting into a bit of over-analyzing? The big footprint pattern aloft has not really changed... We might be so involved with almost model nowcasting an event before it has really unfolded, that we are in a can't see the forest for the trees mentality?

Not an expert on the duel low scenario, but given the incredible potency of the upper levels (500 especially) I'm not sure a duel structure can last long before the surface structure gets consumed / consolidated into one very intense low??? I'm open to being schooled here, but how can a duel structure last under this upper air configuration. As 40/70 inquired, do you have any good historic similarities?

While no one should be slam-dunking the ball yet relative to final outcomes, congrats to TIP for another tremendous job on identifying a medium range major storm threat!!! Well done... Also, this is another case in a long line of storms, most nowhere near as dynamic as this one, that understanding the tendency for mid-level forcing to produce more precip further west than initially modeled, is critical. There will always be concerns about the western extent of mod/hvy precip, and sometimes there will be heart-breaking transitions from tons of snow to very little across short distances. But more times than not you can hedge the mod/hvy qpf west & north of the fronto forcing. As noted above, nothing is a done deal yet with this storm and hopefully all of the positive moves over the past 12 hours or so continue. Now we should all try to mentally slow this down and enjoy the process & evolution of this storm, and not rush the experience to a close!

Is that an approved meteorological term...lol

See... Good things happen to people who are willing to wait and believe in it! Trust your instincts...

No offence taken... It was more about the inference that the ballgame is over for WOR... Hey in the end, it may prove to be correct, but this drumbeat to dismiss this event because the modeled snow gradient appears to remove shot at bigger totals for western areas, as currently stated by quite a few folks, is just not realistic given the nature this storm event. I'm only referencing those that have appeared to have given up. Certainly, concerns are warranted, but throwing the towel in is a bit much... No biggie...

That's only the ones who live and die with modeled snow totals and don't appreciate what a dynamic upper air setup is capable of doing and has done in the past; especially the evolution of that 500 mb low.

It's like watching and trying to time a hurricane's eye-wall replacement cycle. I think the modeling is going to struggle to resolve the duel low structure, but in the end, the incredible jet dynamics will take over quicker than modeled and it will go nuclear...

Here is the 18z Saturday 700 mb fronto prediction from today's 18z euro run... I think we can live with this???

And a very impressive cluster shifting west.

Not really... I still like the basic setup (location & intensity of the mid-level features) and try not to do any knee jerk changes when still 48 to 60 hours of go time. I do fully appreciate what Will has been noting about the southern stream but think there is enough time and wiggle room for this to still pan out very good for most of the area. Reading through the posts, you'd get the impression from some, not most, but some out there that this thing is going east of Bermuda. This will still be KU even... The basic layout fo the 850/700/500, etc... still look more than good to produce a widespread heavy, to locally excessive snowfall. Could western CT/MA end up out of the goods, certainly, but I still love the inflow to take care of that to a large extent... Still too much time to try to get too pessimistic about western arears...

Yes indeed...

When looking at total qpf forecast, which are likely to be a bit underdone in some areas, remember this is highly unlikely to be a 10:1 ratio storm...

Thank you... For western CT/MA, I'm not worried about the location of the main fronto... If the inflow verifies, which is a much more predicable item, there will be great snow totals way west of the fronto projection. Even in modest setups, my rule is to always skew it west & north of the fronto zone... In this setup with the projected inflow, it may be hard to get it to stop going west!!!

"Hard to take Euro seriously" is not a hill I would want to die on!

About fking time... Lol

Still riding the Euro layout, but for comfort level I'd love to see a meaningful move closer to Euro by GFS & NAM. Although, as mentioned earlier by someone this morning, gfs upper look appears good enough to produce a Euro solution.

yep!

Cautiously optimistic the pattern is slowly coming together... Would hope (expect) GFS to trend a bit better tonight. Not surprised by the slowing and think that overall trend will help foster a more widespread / high impact event across SNE...

Refresh my memory, which event a few years back had the westward charging hellacious band with TS+++ / Mix precio+++? That one had an incredible snow drift to it... while the band was east of me by several miles, I had S+++ but the radar was empty over my area...

Hey Wiz... I know you are probably just using this as eye candy right, but hope you realize with an incredibly dynamic setup like this, these fronto banding projections have the ability to jump around big time over the next 3 days; even over the final 12 to 24 hours. Given this is based on the GFS, which I suspect is too far east, I'm hedging the main band will be further west; maybe eastern CT into RI & east-central Mass. Do not under-estimate the ability this to build westward... Also, given the tremendous easterly inflow, I'm guessing there will be a significant westward drift to the heavy falling snow across eastern CT that actually improves snow amounts in parts of the CT Rvr valley. I saw that happen once before during one of our other biggies.

It came up either just prior to the Euro run or very shortly thereafter; 40/70 shut it down pretty quick. Whenever modeling slows a slowing down of an East Coast winter storm, the 78 analog is brought up. But, as mentioned by others, synoptically is not even close. 78 had a full capture, stall and loop. It also had a classic banana high at the surfaces stretching from western NY on across southern Canada out into the Atlantic north of the storm. This has nothing of the sort; high pressure is retreating to its northeast, but no wrapping back of the high on across southern Canada; at least not enough to be noteworthy. This will be an attempt at a capture, but in the end, it will only be able to slow its forward motion; probably not get it to fully stall. I would expect this system will always have some forward motion component, even it crawls for a period of time, as it gets tugged a bit north and northwest.

Agree... At this point, I'm locked in mentally for a big regional event with all the normal caveats. From this point on, want to enjoy the forecasting process; fine tune the snowfall prediction, update my predicted impacts for all of my clients across the Northeast based on my take of the 700 mb intensity & track trends; 850 inflow, etc... The coupled jet structure at 300 mb is a classic big deepener signal. Given the lack of big / widespread events this year, I'm want the next 2 or 3 days be a relaxed run-up to a big event so when we get to Friday, I can just step back and watch it unfold.