FXWX

I've done this a lot of years... this is one of the most challenging / error prone calls I've ever made, not only for the inside 495 area but the western / eastern edges of the CT River Valley area from central CT northward.

4 inches is my worry point for heavy / wet / sticky snow...

That doesn't mean you are wrong? Maybe we are wrong but when something appears off, you have to be wary of the modeled solution... Gut tells me just plot 500 and 700 tracks and ask yourself what normally would happen... That's my starting point.

Yes... As he noted, eps appears to suggest op is a bit too far east. I'm with Tip concerning significant unknowns about how things can rapidly develop in ways you don't see coming well in advance with setups as dynamic as this at mid-levels. Maybe it plays out as modeled but I think we might have some significant nowcast issues down the road.

Yes... I know all the caveats about temps and rates, etc... And I know the deal with the snow graphics, but run after run continues to highlight more snow than suggested by some.

That's what it appears to me... Nothing is coming easy with this event...

Still looks like Litchfield cty into northern Fairfield cty and far western HFD into the Wolcott area still do well.

Yep... 20 f or lower. Svr 10 f or lower

By wiping down & tanking up my tractor this afternoon, I came back in to check trends? The old don't touch the money curse come is starting to haunt me! Worried about Murphy's Law syndrome.

You know that's coming... Lol

Can't be... About 10 posters in the past 30 minutes have stated it's all over based on long range HRRR trends...

Yes and Yes

I think the issuance of specific snow amount maps at this time is unwarranted and does more harm than good. The numbers on the these maps are going to change over the next 2 days, and when they do, all folks are going to remember is how much snow was predicted for their backyard and now it has changed. It leads folks mocking forecasters; they don't care about the reason, all they know is the number change? I am ok with forecasters issuing FIRST CALL outlooks with appropriate caveats. At this stage of the game, I think it is completely acceptable to use general probability terms on maps. Here some of the terms I'm using... Ex. Moderate to High probability of heavy snow of at least 10 inches; Moderate to high probability of seeing less than 10 inches; Moderate probability of seeing excessive snow totals more than 15 inches;. Of course the numbers I'm using are subjective. I fully understand the desire for numbers and the now expected call for media folks to post them. But we posting numbers long before we have reasonable confidence in those numbers verifying. A storm like this is a prime example of why many times you need to play it close to the vest. Again, first call maps like 40/70's with his detailed discussion and caveats are fine, but I guarantee there maps being posted now that will undergo major revisions over the next 2 days. Just some ramblings of an old forecaster; lol

In some ways not shocking at all given the volatile setup... The tiniest of changes with respect to development of the coast low, where the upper level flow tries to capture and bomb it out, as well as any where the best gradient focuses will allow for huge run to run shifts at this range. I won't be surprised if we see more significant shifts until tomorrow's 12z runs. I more wary of a westward trend than an escape east...

I have whole house generator so not worried about power issues...

Just bring snacks!!!

I agree, lol... When I saw Wiz's map I told him to shift his max area to include high terrain areas of far western HFD cty, consider the extreme northern portion of NH cty (Wolcott area were 1000+ ft elevations are in play. The northern parts of Wolcott often plays out like Litchfield cty).

I'm not shocked there are still these messy, convoluted runs... In highly volatile setups with sw energy still moving into and across the western states and trying to resolve capture and retrograde details 3 days down the road, I think we still have another full 24 hours before things truly become consistent. We all would love complete model consensus right now, but it is not going to happen yet.

Watching what today's 3 inch wet snowfall looked like on the trees in my area, if the modeling works out next Tuesday big big power issues!!!!

An even 3.0" here at 1,140 ft in Burlington... Solid snow cover continues...

To me, that's been the amazing aspect of this winter. NO shortage of storms, but horrible antecedent air masses.

I think so...

There are precious few truly region wide spread truly heavy events. Just scan the Kocin book, it's full of big gradients and have & have nots....