FXWX

Normal is low 70's...

The road temp question is always misrepresented and not assessed correctly by many... rates always win-out. Even last night with glorified snow showers and patchy areas of steady light snow we had to send out trucks to treat high elevation roads here in Burlington, as solid coating occurred. The potential for big rates easily out-weighs any road temp concerns...

For a few days now, the global schemes have all shown the likelihood of surge of bitter cold moving into southeastern Canada during early March. It is not hard to envision a intensifying Maritimes low combining with a sharpening trough sweeping across southeastern Canada driving a piece of the bitter air mass south into New England. Whether or not the pattern across southeastern CT and the Maritimes allows it to happen is very uncertain. Obviously at this time frame, you bet against it. But I think there is a good chance a bitter cold air mass will indeed move into southeastern Canada. Whether or not it can be propelled southward into New England is an open question. But I certainly would not dismiss it; especially for portions of Northern New England.

3.0" in Burlington at 1,140 ft... Had 2 pic (rule measurements) sent to me from Highland Lake area of Winsted showing 4.5"

The ridgeline from New Canaan to Ridgefield to Danbury getting smoked...

It also puts the brakes on the warming taking temps down a notch or two once it sets in...

That would blast the lower Fairfield County forecast right out of the water...

New 1.2 since 5 pm; just touched 4" mark

Yes... towns that did not pretreat and/or DPW crews were not ready to go; especially across northwestern areas of CT, need time for a full treatment, which takes early dismissals off the table... switched to remote learning day. Many towns were ready to treat and are fine...

~0.4"

Burlington, CT... 1,160'

Rates should overcome low-level warmth... they will waste a bit of qpf, but I would still expect them to verify moderate totals at least.

Steve, what's the url for that site?

Certainly weird looking... lots issues to still be resolved that will greatly impact final totals...

Very much agree with those thoughts... I think yesterday you mentioned looking at the crude E-Wall site Euro maps. I often use that site as a simple overview of the large-scale features and what they imply before I dig deeper with the more "sophisticated" model sites.

Actually, many times I think there is just too much data (maps) to look at; sometimes its best to pull out the Kocin book and look at similar 500/700/850 setups and check out qpf distribution. Even just looking at the crude E-Wall euro map is a great starting point to look at the overall pattern...

Yep... always some valley shadowing with this type of flow; extent and degree debatable... I'm never great on the valley amounts call; have busted both ways...

I rarely post, but thought I will throw my 2-cents in for the Monday / Tuesday event. I would run with an earlier onset for SNE based on my experience with these setups. Secondly, at this point in time, I would toss or at least not focus too closely on the modeled qpf maps right now; not only the snowfall junk maps; take qpf maps and put them aside for now. If the large scale Euro features end-up close to verifying; higher qpf amounts will verify further west than now modeled. Those 700 & 850 depictions and inflows are not going to keep big totals pinned across eastern SNE; 700 & 850 inflows certainly suggest to me that you should not under-play heavy totals pushing further into western CT & southeastern NY.

Me! A private met, who's usually flies under the radar and rarely post here... Will occasionally tweet, but not a lot; last night's response to Kev's tweet, which I obviously misinterpreted, led to a bit of back and forth and inspired a mention about who I am on here, so thought i would fill in the blanks. Snow and/or rain totals from Burlington, CT (BOX PNS products) are usually mine. We are building a new house on the highest elevation lot in Hartford County (~1150 feet) and I will likely post more given the snow & wind gust climatology of that area. I've been a consulting met for almost 40 years and my company name is Fax-Alert Weather Service. Started company when fax machines were just becoming common in businesses and it was the primary mode used to transmit updates and alerts to my clients. Company name (Fax-Alert Weather) was based on mode of communication to clients at the time I started business. That mode of contact ended when email, text alerts and web services became the normal, but I kept the name since I had no desire to change business registration, IRS filings and the name recognition with all my clients. Currently, consult with 85 CT/NY school districts, several town DPW operations, snow removal and landscaping businesses, as well as 4 Energy Associations (Oil / Propane dealers), Wachusett's Ski Resort and Aubuchon Hardware Company. Also, deal with numerous insurance companies and law firms for forensic services. Check in occasionally to see what some mets one here (ORH, Coastal, Tip, Ryan H, OceanStWx to name a few) are thinking; also great to see younger generation guys like Wiz getting more involved and more experienced. Find inputs from others like Ginx, 40/70, yourself, and yes, even Kevin, worthy of following. Know Ryan H well and consider Ryan and Bob Maxon the best media duo in CT; the viewing public in CT is blessed to have them on air; especially during severe t-storm outbreaks... Also, nice to see my good friend Walt Drag posting more and more; about as good as it gets. Been around long enough that nothing really surprises me anymore; be it balmy Xmas periods, miserable springs or dud severe weather seasons... looks like I've more than answers the who is …. question, lol, but just in case I piss someone off again, everyone will know who I am... Stay safe and have a wonderful holiday season; don't worry about the snow pack; more is a-coming!!!

The thing I would be wary of is assuming the modeling (bufkit) is 100% correct in terms of mixing? Plus in these types of only hint of convective elements would be needed to generate big issues; especially for eastern CT...

You mean folks are supposed to read and assess scientific reasoning and not just look at the pretty pictures? That would take too much time; lol

Gravity waves...

Many towns will continue with normal snow days and then adjust if snow day needs get too great; also for a 2-day event many will do a snow day for day 1 and then remote learning for day 2.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/

Nice... I like the look and style... Nothing online the looks anywhere near as nice...