FXWX

Snowing at a good clip in Burlington! PXL_20230221_092336237.TS.mp4

Around an inch total qpf; give or take few hundreds

I have looked at the issue as well. I see not plausible reason for the number of deadly crashes. It is freaking crazy... other roadways that have high accident rate locations all have very specific well-known issues. None that I know in that stretch of 84...

It's like the Bermuda Triangle of I-84.

That stretch has accidents on 70 degree days with full sun. I'm not sure why? If they setup a wide angle live television feed from that area it would be one of the most watched channels...

Same here... Crews heading out to treat given still wet roads and temps crashing into the upper 20's. Normally drying wins out but only takes is one icy curve for an ugly crash. Stafford heading out to treat soon, as well.

28 here

1000% NO shot it fails!!! Feet of snow with many inches of ice....

At this time and in this setup, it is all about how the block retrogrades... if it diverts a bit southwest, colder/snowier/icier trends would win out. One way or the other, I think the next 2 model runs will start locking on to the final outcome with regards to the block. Not a lot of wiggle room given southeast ridge & -PNA so will need to block to make it all happen?

You crack me up Kev... I have a vision of a group peepers sitting around their weather office on mini-computers arguing about whether or not the -NAO is going to pop or not, and will the MJO ever make it to phase 8... lol Then they grab their cell phones and starts spreading the word!!!

Just went back and checked them out. Had forgotten how absurd they were!!!

Nice... Actually, thinking back, I do recall reading your outlook and noting the 2018 analog... Don't have them in front of me right now, but what were a few of the max temps during Feb 18

Unless we are looking at a pattern favorable for a true Match monster, I'll take a mini 2012 anytime. I'd be happy with a crippling March blizzard followed by a snow vaporizer pattern 2 days later; and then onward to summer...

I'll let him chat about his March thoughts. Not sure there is much confidence overall other than it's unlikely to take a deep prolonged dive below normal. Probably some modest cold intrusions but don't see a reason at this time to call for long running cold regime. The crappy cold season waits until April and we early May, as is normal these days; lol

I'm going to give some props to Tip... Back in December he chatted with me about his expectations that another record setting warm blast could visit during February 2023. He was bullish on a warm period in January, but really liked the potential for another Feb record smashing period...

Yes indeed... although that may be one of the shortest record setting time periods of a high temp I've seen with a 13 degree crash shortly thereafter.

And just like that; a flip of the wind direction and GON goes from 71 to 58...

I'm only a causal poster, but I do spend a good amount of time reading posts by mets on here. I'm not sure how many of the excellent mets on here continue to put up with the BS. I do not recall any met doing anything other than discussing 7 to 10, 10+ day snd/or the weeklies trends, as modeled, with a crap lot of caveats each time. And once the patterns got within 7 days, they were almost always discussing why it was not likely to not work out in positive way for snow and/or cold lovers across central & southern areas. The lack of comprehension on this board is stunning sometimes.

I'm not even talking about next week... I'm just busting about the constant persistence talk in the face of an obviously different look to the pattern evolution. Hey, it may lead to nothing at all, but it won't be for the same reasons. Actually late next week is actually the first tease as I see it.

When he has 6 inches of persistence on his driveway or a half of persistence breaking tree limbs into his property...

100%... We all know what the tenor of the winter and modeling has been up to this point in time... But you have to be ready to drop the persistence argument when it starts becoming obvious that argument wouldn't cut it anymore. Are we 100% there yet, no... But we are very close.

Yes... Your text to me did highlight this potential... Spot on...

Obviously, lots of if's still in play, but the overall pattern evolution playing out in recent trends, suggest the most promising period for SNE could be at hand; although that would not take much given the tenor of this winter. The cold loading & press being modeled by the GEFS would lead to a wonderful period of gradient snows / ice across portions of the region. I'm certainly not going to commit to high confidence outcome at this time, but I really like the look of the layout across south-central and southeastern Canada and would think confidence will jump quickly over the next 36 to 48 hours, if these trends do not collapse.

Hey Will... just a couple of thoughts... when I look at the physical layout of the projected 500 mb pattern, I am just not sure if there is enough wiggle room for the ridge to retrograde much, and as you stated it hard to have much confidence it is coming westward much. I see the broadness of the Canadian vortex and the stout look of the Alaskan ridge, just not sure how much wiggle room and flexibility there is within that layout. Obviously, that assumes it evolves as modeled??? We have 4 pieces of the puzzle; broad polar vortex, modest ridging in the far east side of the -NAO sector, Alaskan ridging and a very broad west to east southern ridge. Just not sure the room for retrograding is great. With that in mind, I'm agree with your skepticism. If we could really get the ridge to retrograde west/northwest, that would help compress the Canadian trough, which in turn would setup a pretty wild gradient between the PV and the southern ridge... that in turn would likely setup a period of fast-moving swfe's for New England; obviously snow potential for any one location would be dependent upon where the cold side gradient ended-up... Lots of ifs and buts with very low confidence about how all of this will play out over the next 2 to 3 weeks. Given the tenor of the winter to date, not holding my breath for SNE; especially south of the Pike.

Here's the book...