FXWX

Growing up during the age of Miller A's, I will say this... Some of the biggest busts I've witnessed and studied were intense Miller A storms. Error / bust potential is often much less when dealing with Miller B events. Given the historic look of the absurdly digging 500 mb trough, I would be very wary of this escaping too far east? While history making events are always possible, that 500 mb evolution is beyond extreme! If it develops as modeled, then it's one for the record books. I think it would be wise to assume its (500 mb) intensity is not going to be as intense as modeled. Lots to consider; where will the primary form, does it jump / reform well to the east, or does it get tugged westward, stall, loop, ??? Thumb through the Kocin book(s) and you will find examples of Miller A's that were expected to graze southeastern SNE, and to everyone's surprise, ended up throwing heavy snow back into eastern NY? Not saying this one will, but the evolution of the 500 mb level tells me this is not a simple escape east situation. I think a more western track evolves on modeling tomorrow.

All coated up here with trucks back out.

Even the Navy doesn't really use it! Like most organizations, it's mainly Euro and Gufus...

Calling it 19.0 in Burlington

2 weeks ago I was posting to my clients about the ghost of Jan 2015 walking through the door! Well, he's now sitting at the kitchen table! Great storm... Last week Will posted about the Gulf opening up (moisture flow) and how that tends to mean northward trends! I have been waiting for the gulf and deep southern moisture to get involved for years!!! Let's see if we can keep it going with East Coast action.

Tough measurement for my location, after assessing the drifting and multiple measurements, I think I'm closer to 20 than the 18 inch total I reported. Heading out to dig out the generator!

Will need to dig the generator out in the morning...

My DPW guy just text he's at 24". I'm too windy to get an truly accurate measurement, but I have drifting up to my windows and completely blocking my front entrance, I know we've gotten a big number!

I would be wary of ending the snow across western & central CT too soon. While the rates will certainly decrease, there is ample low-level fronto & advection in the 925 and 850, even almost to the 700 level to promote more steady light / moderate snow across much of CT; while the back edge of it appears to be heading into western CT, I think it will expand and fill out; appearing to back-build. It will certainly not be anywhere near as heavy as earlier, but I think there will be ongoing light snow continuing well after midnight.

Front walkway completely drifted over!

Agree... had a couple folks send me pics to prove that it was sleet. The pics proved it was actually NOT sleet!

I am sure there could be some sneaky thin above freezing layers, but the hourly analysis of the low-levels from 925 to 850, along with the hourly profiles (the one below is close to the Vernon CT area where someone was reporting sleet) sleet is not the favored precip type. Not saying anyone is lying, but I'd favor mangled snowflakes or snowflake shards; if that makes sense? Certainly not a classic sleet profile...

If you want to see a stunning good heavy snow signature; go to SPC meso and look at 850 and 700 fronto and advection maps; as well as the tremendous thermal gradient from 925 to 850... A thing of beauty...

Over the many years, I've experienced a precious few snowstorms with single digits and low teens at onset with steady rising temps. Nothing compares to this!!!

Heavy snow; dropped back to zero!

1 degree / mod/hvy snow!

High of 5 off a morning low of -3

It shows exceptional rates centered on the late afternoon / evening period!

We are reaching the point in time with this event that we have to settle into to doing more meteorology, and a bit less model-olgy... I am not saying stop looking at the models, but starting spending some time comparing short-range model trends with what the actual surface and upper-level plots re showing? Take a look at SPC meso plots every couple of hours and see how those plots align with the modeling solutions for the same time; note trends and differences between the actual data plots and the modeled solutions, at several levels (sfc to 500 mb). As it relates to the sleet issue, the one thing I have learned over the decades, is the strength of arctic air masses is often under-played by the modeling; the attack and overwhelming of the air mass is often over-played. That is often the case with arctic air masses of less intensity than this one! So yes, enjoy looking at all the new runs of the model suites, but pretty soon you (everyone, this not meant for Tip) need to start checking on real-time trends not only across New England, but also the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Deep South areas, and see if the reality of the current weather jives with the modeled solutions... The bottom line is, enjoy this event...

I hear ya... I have so much wind that it is a rare storm that doesn't strip a quarter of my property clean... Meanwhile big drifts elsewhere...out road drifts over enough that they leave a payloader parked up here.

I think the wind is being under modeled, especially in the higher elevations. I'm expecting considerably blowing and drifting; focused on the higher elevations.

I would not sweat over the CMC/RGEM profiles. I've never modified other models guidance based on what the CMC is showing...

1000% agree... I mentioned yesterday how negativity seems to overwhelm even when a good old fashioned storm develops!

This where happiness goes to die... We have been praying for several years for an active deep winter pattern! Now we get one and lots of folks look for any reason to complain... Quite remarkable actually...

Remember it well! Obviously different modeling capabilities back then, but there was high confidence that suppression would keep it south with an almost due east deflection... Hours away from huge SNE hit; forecasts were confident of a miss except on the coastal plain.