FXWX

Your area looked like the best shot for 4" in CT... sitting at 3" in Burlington with moderate snow...

They are... solid in Burlington with 3 on the ground

There's nothing wrong with fantasizing while watching weather porn! At least that's what my therapist says.

Roll cloud action in Burlington CT! PXL_20260108_181252868.RAW-02.ORIGINAL.dng

There certainly was! It was fine to discuss the potential as long it was it was kept in the perspective of a long range modeling prediction, and not one that was a lock to happen. And yes, 40's, 50's and even a 60 degree highs were chatted about by many folks. Why deny it... It was discussed and now reality appears to be setting that the high end warming was way overdone... Just another reason to take long lead modeling outcomes with many grains of salt. Fun to chat about but taking it verbatim will often get you burned.

Wonderful... I may need one soon

Good luck Steve... How was your recovery / PT from your first knee op? I hear it can be tough?

Thanks Tip... I fully understand the spacing issue with respect to the isohypses controlling the overall speed; the tighter the speed gradient (so to speak) the faster the flow; also I get the suppression process. What I was inquiring about is do you just scan the isohypses spacing, or do you look for a specific gradient value, if you get my drift? Have you come across any papers discussing the increasing speed / shear issue; compared to years or decades ago?

Hey Tip... Happy NY... When you say "a speed surplus problem on GFS" how are you determining that?

Couple appears off the table...

Costed up here...

3.5 for Burlington., CT

Great Squall event, and in my opinion wonderfully modeled...

I actually prefer this look to a massive almost stationary anomalous block... Massive blocks are often associated with suppression issues? Most big dog events are within -/+ NAO transitions, anyways. All in all, I'm good playing tag with offshore ridge.

Good reminder to folks that it's more than the pretty colors. While this may well evolve into a significant block, as you note, the current depiction of that upper height field does not qualify as a block; at least not yet.

Snow cover decreased, but not destroyed in the Johnnycake mountain area of Burlington CT; sunset rays doing a great job of illuminating the neighborhood houses...

Absolutely no need for those conditions... Terrible DPW management!

Need to be wary... Moderate / heavy rainfall rates are a negative for big accreation... Significant icing for sure (0.5"), from what I can tell much of the qpf occurs during a relative short period of time. In this setup 0.75 to 1.00 qpf does not equate to 0.75 to 1.0 inches of ice...

My DOT guy is out measuring around town now... Indicating there could be more 10's than 8's. My specific location is a bear to measure; even with only a modest wind like last night, I get lots variability across my property.

8.4 here in Burlington; my guy in Wolcott measured 8.5.

Yes they do...

Great to hear... Nice to see a storm trend in the right direction for your area... Loving the cold temps with this event!!! Certainly a different vibe (at least for my thinking) to this season. Always lots of complaints, given recent winters, but at least for now I'm ok with the general pattern. It will continue to provide chances... Maybe a big dog down the road.

Lots of 5 to 6" reports from my clients in northern New Haven county and southern Litchfield county! Some 6+ amounts

Couple of thoughts... I don't like warnings being issued for zones when the low end number in the forecast is less than warning criteria... Both high & low numbers in the forecast range should equal or exceed the warning criteria. Just my opinion. Secondly, in this type of setup we are likely to see several mini maxes zones; western Fairfield cty, especially high terrain areas in Ridgefield / Danbury zone (overall greatest totals); another area of local enhancement from from high terrain areas of southern Litchfield cty into western Hartford cty, into northern / western New Haven cty; lastly another local max zone likely showing up in northern Tolland cty.

Yep the modeling was good with southeast NY fronto action and the question was how far east could it come.