FXWX

It shows exceptional rates centered on the late afternoon / evening period!

We are reaching the point in time with this event that we have to settle into to doing more meteorology, and a bit less model-olgy... I am not saying stop looking at the models, but starting spending some time comparing short-range model trends with what the actual surface and upper-level plots re showing? Take a look at SPC meso plots every couple of hours and see how those plots align with the modeling solutions for the same time; note trends and differences between the actual data plots and the modeled solutions, at several levels (sfc to 500 mb). As it relates to the sleet issue, the one thing I have learned over the decades, is the strength of arctic air masses is often under-played by the modeling; the attack and overwhelming of the air mass is often over-played. That is often the case with arctic air masses of less intensity than this one! So yes, enjoy looking at all the new runs of the model suites, but pretty soon you (everyone, this not meant for Tip) need to start checking on real-time trends not only across New England, but also the Mid-Atlantic, Southeast and Deep South areas, and see if the reality of the current weather jives with the modeled solutions... The bottom line is, enjoy this event...

I hear ya... I have so much wind that it is a rare storm that doesn't strip a quarter of my property clean... Meanwhile big drifts elsewhere...out road drifts over enough that they leave a payloader parked up here.

I think the wind is being under modeled, especially in the higher elevations. I'm expecting considerably blowing and drifting; focused on the higher elevations.

I would not sweat over the CMC/RGEM profiles. I've never modified other models guidance based on what the CMC is showing...

1000% agree... I mentioned yesterday how negativity seems to overwhelm even when a good old fashioned storm develops!

This where happiness goes to die... We have been praying for several years for an active deep winter pattern! Now we get one and lots of folks look for any reason to complain... Quite remarkable actually...

Remember it well! Obviously different modeling capabilities back then, but there was high confidence that suppression would keep it south with an almost due east deflection... Hours away from huge SNE hit; forecasts were confident of a miss except on the coastal plain.

Great job on the roads... lol

I had bet on best shot at 4" in northern Litchfield county with my area nudging 3"... Definitely over performed...

Total for the day right now is 5.0; elevation ~1,200'

An additional 3 here in the last 2 hours... puking snow

Your area looked like the best shot for 4" in CT... sitting at 3" in Burlington with moderate snow...

They are... solid in Burlington with 3 on the ground

There's nothing wrong with fantasizing while watching weather porn! At least that's what my therapist says.

Roll cloud action in Burlington CT! PXL_20260108_181252868.RAW-02.ORIGINAL.dng

There certainly was! It was fine to discuss the potential as long it was it was kept in the perspective of a long range modeling prediction, and not one that was a lock to happen. And yes, 40's, 50's and even a 60 degree highs were chatted about by many folks. Why deny it... It was discussed and now reality appears to be setting that the high end warming was way overdone... Just another reason to take long lead modeling outcomes with many grains of salt. Fun to chat about but taking it verbatim will often get you burned.

Wonderful... I may need one soon

Good luck Steve... How was your recovery / PT from your first knee op? I hear it can be tough?

Thanks Tip... I fully understand the spacing issue with respect to the isohypses controlling the overall speed; the tighter the speed gradient (so to speak) the faster the flow; also I get the suppression process. What I was inquiring about is do you just scan the isohypses spacing, or do you look for a specific gradient value, if you get my drift? Have you come across any papers discussing the increasing speed / shear issue; compared to years or decades ago?

Hey Tip... Happy NY... When you say "a speed surplus problem on GFS" how are you determining that?

Couple appears off the table...

Costed up here...

3.5 for Burlington., CT

Great Squall event, and in my opinion wonderfully modeled...