jbenedet

For Tuesday, Euro is trending 2 steps forward 1 step back, but it’s there nonetheless, just more ambiguous. 12z EPS shows significant threat still very much on the table imo.

I disagree. It’s already close for eastern areas. Trend has also been favorable. 72 hrs is plenty of time.

I’d gladly take a whiff on Sunday to see what Tuesday’s wave can do with less interference. Tuesday has big potential imo; Sunday moderate at best.

Not worried about that as much as I am the lead wave (Sunday) intensifying to the point that it will dampen heights behind it...Small risk, but it’s an important one...

NAM for Tues is of course OTL. 12z GFS is zoning in on the “right” evolution imo.

I think Tuesday has the look of a (surprise) significant snow potential. Flow is slow—looks Miller B-esque. Cyclogenesis begin south of LI —just need to see more blocking on guidance which looks easily attainable given -NAO/-AO.

Seems like Euro suffering from its “bury shortwaves in the SW” bias, given nature of this setup and big differences at H5 b/w it and the GFS early on. Either way longwave pattern does not look conducive to a wintry event for 90% of us. In terms of personal preferences, I’m excited for a big storm (rain or snow), which I still think is on the table...

Of course. I just pointed it out bc of the significant disparity b/w surface and mid levels. Night and day.

Surface evolution still anticlimactic—but H500, screams potential. Good spot at day 6/7. I’ll take.

Wrt snow, yes I agree. I’m just excited about big storm potential —rain or snow.

Next Tuesday looking much better. Starting to get excited about that one, seeing the huge improvements of the N stream and S stream shortwaves out to hr 120 over the past few runs....

Longwave pattern better but flow faster. Concern with that is too progressive for a late bloomer...Obviously much more uncertainty with Tuesday but would want to see shortwave trend much stronger in coming days or will write off a big event. To me, Friday is a wind/rain T-storm (for SNE) for most. Looks like a case where coastal isn’t pressed southeast until gets into significant climo CAD areas—Whites of NH and interior ME. Good back end snows for whites, northern greens, and interior ME probably. That’s my first guess anyway...

Thinking most will be on the warm side of Friday’s event. Likely ends up well west with -PNA, save far interior and Maine.

High wind watch issued for cape and islands and north shore MA. 60 mph wind gusts expected.

True. Setup was better. But we do have a a Full moon and October SST’s vs March. SST’s are still quite warm (55-60F), so I think mixing down the 50+ mph gusts won’t be an issue along the coast where fetch is predominately easterly.