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jbenedet

Meteorologist
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About jbenedet

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KDAW
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Dover, New Hampshire
  • Interests
    Academic Interests: Meteorology, Astronomy, Physics, Economics, Finance

    Recreational: Sports, gym, hikiing, biking, target shooting, snowboarding.

    I follow the meteorological and financial world on a daily basis...

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  1. jbenedet

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    The 12z ukie gets down to 978 about 100 miles east of PSM.
  2. jbenedet

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    The short term risk is that with all the deep convection firing over the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic is that this can end up stacking further south/west of current guidance consensus. I think that will be the only meaningful trend going forward.
  3. jbenedet

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/GIFS/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif
  4. jbenedet

    March 22-23 Storm Thread: Cabins and Pony-Os?

    The Nam is the only pc of guidance with 3 competing SLP’s - the one above, one out towards Bermuda and another that develops later about halfway in between both. It seems to me based on guidance consensus, the NAM’s trend, and where the 12z NAM ultimately tracks the main surface reflection (into the GOM) that it’s the latter SLP that predominates. I’m thinking the NAM is having difficulty resolving which is the area of best surface pressure falls and is reflecting this with 3 distinct SLP’s in the same region rather than consolidating it early on.
  5. jbenedet

    March Disco

    Rgem most pronounced with it but other meso guidance showing this as well - HRDRPS, WRF, 3k NAM. Physically, it does at least make sense to see best surface pressure falls further east along the Gulf Stream, given the lack of baroclinicity associated with the southern stream shortwave....I’m split if we’re looking at some kind of weak subtropical system off the Carolinas or a weak synoptic wave as most global models show...
  6. jbenedet

    March Disco

    Odd that the northern stream looks so much weaker on the 12z euro vs yesterday’s 12z run. Hell it’s even weaker than the 12z GEFS. It’s almost as though the euro went from the extreme high end of the ensemble envelope (yesterday) to the low end of the ensemble envelope today.
  7. jbenedet

    March Disco

    That aspect no doubt appears wonky. But to me, if you compare H5 at hr 54 of the 12z GFS and 12z GGEM and then consider the GFS trending behind, it seems the GFS is heading towards that H5 GGEM depiction at hr 54–or at least a close resemblance of it...
  8. jbenedet

    March Disco

    The Canadian is at the upper margin of the envelope of possibilities imo. Unlikely bc of how extreme it is but certainly not impossible given the players. I think it’s more reasonable to blend the 12z GFS and the 12z GGEM at this point, based on the trending...
  9. jbenedet

    March Disco

    On the GFS you can see the downstream ridging increasing every run. I think at this point you have to lean strongly that the GFS is still behind with the southern stream wave amplification , and if that’s the case the northern stream energy as depicted will be sufficient for more explosive cyclogenesis further south—similar to other global guidance.
  10. jbenedet

    March Disco

    GFS definitely still following other major guidance. GFS gradually coming on board but only step-wise; so still behind... Rain/snow, up in the air but confidence increasing we’re looking at a bomb and it’s very unlikely to escape east....
  11. jbenedet

    March Disco

    Just an observation, but the trending/evolution of this reminds me somewhat of the bomb the central/western US saw last week. *Def not referencing this in terms of sensible weather impacts—only model guidance trends and overall synoptic look. I think the trend west and earlier complete phase is real and continues. Leaning towards possibility we see something really wound up (sub 980) but right on the coast of SNE or the Northern Mid Atlantic. Not ruling out big snows for the far interior and most of NNE just yet...
  12. jbenedet

    March Disco

    No I’m bringing astrology to the forum.
  13. jbenedet

    March Disco

    Super moon on the 21st. I know someone (Ginx?) already mentioned but probably should again given the trend of stronger intensity and earlier development.
  14. jbenedet

    March Disco

    May be a case where the GFS SE bias is having an outsized impact on the final solution. It has been further deepening the southern stream shortwave just about every run over the past 5 cycles. Looks like it’s playing catch-up in this regard...
  15. jbenedet

    March 10 2019 Snow to Mix Event

    Roads are a mess around here
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