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About jbenedet

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
  • Location:
    Dover, New Hampshire
  • Interests
    Academic Interests: Meteorology, Astronomy, Physics, Economics, Finance

    Recreational: Sports, gym, hikiing, biking, target shooting, snowboarding.

    I follow the meteorological and financial world on a daily basis...

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  1. jbenedet

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    Seems cape cod and island will get it pretty good first. TS warnings already issued there...
  2. jbenedet

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    Yes many other important variables to consider. For the time being, though, i think it’s critical to note that a more direct westward trajectory means a closer pass to Florida. If there are no/very minimal wobbles, The longitudinal gain is maximized prior to the complete loss of steering currents and stall.
  3. jbenedet

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    Really would like to understand more about how this incredible inertial stability will affect the track. Have to think, all other things being equal, it will take a more substantial weakness in the flow, to alter Dorian’s trajectory. Greater angular velocity—>greater angular momentum—> less wobbles/future trajectory—> persistence
  4. jbenedet

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    This looks a lot like yesterday’s 12z GEFS which I still strongly favor.
  5. jbenedet

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    Strongly favoring the 12z GEFS over 12z euro/EPS ensembles. Pattern, broadly is progressive. 12z GEFS makes a lot more sense with the landfall and subsequent “hard right”. NHC 5 pm cone appears to be a middle ground.
  6. jbenedet

    Category Five Hurricane Dorian

    Water. Storm Surge and rainfall. That should be the focus in general, but especially down in southern Florida.
  7. jbenedet

    July pattern(s) and discussion

    Just a quick look but little surprised by SPC’s limited interest in severe for Wednesday. Antecedent airmass looks great. As does timing for eastern third of the forum. Decent UL height falls...Limiting factor appears to be shear, but that parameter should be conducive in CNE/ NNE, for at least widespread pulse, maybe an MCS in SE NH/ Maine?
  8. jbenedet

    2019 Atlantic Hurricane Season

    Think there’s a 50/50 chance we see a lemon over the north central Gulf as this UL trough digs south over the next 24 hrs. Seems to be increasing model support for a weak surface low, collocated with deep convection near LA, tracking east, pretty close to the coast. Little chance this has the environment or time to develop into something more meaningful. Just something to watch.
  9. jbenedet

    Hurricane Barry

    I’m not buying the due west track into Texas. It seems to me that it’s a very unusual track given a) a starting Latitude that easily feels the westerlies and typically sees recurvature (climo), b)Absence of a robust WAR (which we clearly don’t have). Steering flow appears weak and ambiguous after the trough largely misses, but leaves a slight weakness in its wake. Right now I strongly prefer the meander n/nnw into LA.
  10. jbenedet

    Summer 2019 New England Banter and Disco

    Was out at York beach today and was shocked how warm the water is...just checked buoys throughout the Gulf of Maine...lots of upper 60’s and low 70’s already....For early July? Wow...
  11. jbenedet

    June 2019 Discussion

    Bro. It’s june frickin 1st.
  12. jbenedet

    May 2019 Discussion

    Dr. Doo and Damage in Troll-land
  13. jbenedet

    May 2019 Discussion

    Heh and put the blinders on for Monday - Tuesday potential. 6z FV3 GFS looks a lot like the euro now...
  14. jbenedet

    May 2019 Discussion

    So which is it? “With this horrific pattern thru May”...
  15. jbenedet

    May 2019 Discussion

    GFS continues to hint at a big storm potential around days 7-9. It’s a long shot but it’s all I’ve got, with this crappy pattern holding strong...