jbenedet

Concerning. But it's still early. Trends were definitely significantly west today, but that's also coming from a consensus that was well ots. Really want to see more trends west on the euro/EPS before confidence can increase in regards to a potential LF. We're in that "in-between state" if you will, since we just lost a lot of confidence in the ots track... Now it's low confidence in both outcomes. Just caution for now...

18z GEFS says Carolina's, especially North Carolina, needs to watch Maria closely... Only out to hr 60, but can already tell this will be west of 12z... Still a lot of time though, we're still looking at ~5 days before any potential LF....

Never questioned the wind, or the fact that it's having significant impacts, locally in SE MA. That said, Jose--or what's left of him--is getting undue credit for that. For if we didn't have a 1024 mb high anchored over ME, the winds 200 miles from Jose's center would be uneventful.

#bigarseNorEaster give it a rest bro.

So there's no mechanism to strengthen him or maintain steady state. Exactly. I'll stick with what I originally said. Enjoy the clouds and wind.

Looks overdone imo. Most of that aloft. The point is, Jose is largely a stratus swirl with a synoptic scale gradient wind.

The past isn't an indicator/predictor of current or future events. Enjoy the wind.

Certainly looks that way on visibile. All bark no bite. Nothing happening under 90% of those clouds...

Jose is a large weakening vort. The UL vort is suffficient to induce forcing and cause convection for the time being until this energy is dissipated, but make no mistake, despite the proximity to the Gulf Stream there isn't a baroclinic zone in the vicinity of Jose. Your analogy to a cut off low, would also indicate the atmosphere is equivalent barotropic. As I stated previously, neither Mid Latitude cyclone dynamics nor tropical forcing is being maintained right now. Jose is a rapidly weakening system, despite his misleading satellite appearance.

Not commenting on exact track of Maria, I would wager that the euro/gfs are maintaining Jose's intensity for too long given his track and no mechanism to maintain tropical or subtropical characetistics whatsoever. The latest guidance has him sitting over low 60F SST's and meandering over his own wake, which should only act to increase his rate of weakening. It would be surprising to see Jose as anything more than a Startus swirl by this time tomorrow...

I think current guidance has the general theme with Maria's track correct. I think this will be a much more typical track up the east coast than what we are seeing with Jose. The flow off the east coast will be faster, and there will be less blocking. Forecast wise, this is all about Maria's interaction with the trough. If the trough is flat and/or positively tilted she's likely ots... The blocking over the northwest Atlantic will weaken considerably as Maria makes her way to the subtropics, and the trough eventually picks her up before she has too long to meander off the coast. Teleconnection wise we want to watch the indices for the PNA and AO. Current forecasts indicate a +PNA and -AO, around the time that Maria is entering the subtropics. This teleconnection combination can act to enhance mid-latitude cyclone development, further amplifying the long wave trough upon its approach to Maria...

Odd that the GFS wants to hold back that shortwave over the SW, so the whole longwave trough becomes misaligned. That likely corrects towards the 12z euro's depiction at hr 192... I guess it was already a step toward the euro considering the 12z gfs cut off that shortwave, whereas this run did not...

The key is that trough moving across the Rockies around hr 162. It certainly is deep enough to pull Maria inland rather than push her ots. The main issue I'm seeing now on the GFS is timing.

It obviously could change, being 180 hr out, but I'm seeing a PNA ridge show up consistently on guidance around that time frame. I think that feature alone would argue for a significantly different outcome than what we're seeing now with Jose, with the massive troughing over the west coast. I know I sound like a broken record with this, but the further west he gets before the recurve north the much greater the chance for an east coast hit. 75W is a critical BM, based on climo. The western side of the NHC's current cone takes her there. We'll have to see if the WAR flexes its muscles again. Either way, between now and the next 72 hrs, we'll have to see where she ends up relative to the current forecast track, and should be able to measurably increase/decrease the threat risk up here based on this outcome alone.

Irma was a good table setter for widespread record river flooding...