jbenedet

I’m taking the severe risk today legitimately; seems we have all the general players positioned very well. Pretty textbook. Just need to have a good sky clearing after this current round of downpours.

Here in the seacoast region of NH I’ve learned to take a negative bias for surface based forcing and a significant positive bias for mid level forcing. It didn’t come easy—many beatings—thanks to model guidance hoodwinking on days the sensible weather feels primed for severe…

985 mb near Montreal is pretty damn impressive for mid June climo

I will shoot rounds into the sky if this happens again here.

63F for SST’s off coast of NH https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44098 For the date that’s normal for south shore Long Island…

UNH buoy east of NH already up to 63 degrees…. That’s a month ahead of schedule… https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44098

This heat always surprises me in terms of how little is needed to make it happen.

Yea our June’s have been so incredibly warm recently that our collective bias is +5

I’m expecting an overperform today. The mid level forcing tends to meet or exceed for June. Yesterday with the prevailing low level easterly fetch and overcast was a big sell for rain. Not a repeat. Two completely different setups. More early sun too. Fitting the persistence pattern today with the mid level low swinging through.

Guidance way off on the timing of this. Much faster than progged. Gonna be raining here by 20z tonight and out by 10z tomorrow.

70/58

Already feeling like shorts.

Lost 1 day to the rain considering the late start yesterday. looking forward to 70 and sun. With 8pm sunset can maximize the opportunity.

This spring has been excellent for young plants establishing and seed starting.

3/4 days are nice. 65-75 Monday will surprise to the upside. The one day with rain (Sunday) will treat the gardens so I can avoid watering. winning.