jbenedet

ACY 39/33 on a southwest wind. Down from 43. She’s cut-off. Very cut-off. The CAD is moving in fast. Back to freezing by early afternoon?

Been raining for an hour here, but appears DAW still snow. 10 miles will once again mean all the difference.

That’s a valid point—but won’t be until after midnight….

Stronger storm. seeing a bunch of meso lows south of LI across guidance. As usual, will be interesting to see how much this slows the easterly fetch and quick torch.

It’s Jan 16. The sun sets in 3.5 hours. Temp peaks around 2 p.m. this time of year. 21 high is my bet. dew dropped from -6 to -7.

16/-6 at DAW NWS with 23 for a high there. Ain’t happenin’. 50% odds DAW doesn’t see 20F.

Really difficult forecast for DAW.

-4/-12 at DAW this morning and latest guidance showing mostly rain for Monday. Quite the swing.

And then remember that common misconception, which everyone with some met knowledge likes to repeat: “the upper levels dictate the surface”. But synoptic wave development is a positive feedback mechanism—the upper levels drives the surface and the surface drives the upper levels. If at the surface we have an arctic high anchored UL heights can’t be pumped over our heads and the phase in PA happens southeast of LI or the Gulf of Maine instead.

It's like you almost forgot everything about New England cold tucks in one sentence. Well done.

But the surface HP would not have been stronger, and therefore "more anchored" if SST's were near normal? It's an important factor for eastern new England and especially the coastal plain. But one amongst many. The end.

Now queue up the list of imbeciles who will interpret this as "so you're saying it will never snow in eastern southern New England bc of SST's?!" Of course not-- just more needs to go "right".

Fine at hr 96? I mix often here. Very often. Local climate is 75/25 PSM/DAW She's coming west. Check out the H5 trend in Quebec.

That’s my thinking as well. SLP ends up going over PSM or MHT then ENE. Great storm Berks and most of interior NNE.

Ya you got me alright. Guy, so butt hurt, forgot what my point even was. Or maybe you still cannot comprehend it? “It’s *impossible* for coastal New England to get measurable snow bc of ++SST anomalies is the GOM” Is this what you’re trying to say I said? I’m surprised you didn’t pick a clown map in Colorado.