jbenedet

No. Latitude. It became extra tropical and phased right around NYC metro, hence also began tracking due north...That’s also why the wind impact broadened for our sub forum despite it tracking much further west.

Not weird... The pressure gradient was much more representative of a tropical system at that latitude.

NYC looks like a prime spot for tornado threat and high wind threat...Staten Island and Brooklyn are likely greatest risk being exposed to the southeast fetch off the open water... That recent 90 mph gust in Virginia was also reported in the same sector that’s likely to effect NYC area if extrapolate current trajectory...

Yes of course. It’s all relative. The early improvements are much more apparent on visible at the moment. Isaias is beginning to reorient himself and gain symmetry. https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=regional-southeast-02-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Just eyeballing it on satellite—looks like the recurve has started and strengthening underway...

You can see the outflow being significantly compressed and elongated on his west side, indicating the influence of the approaching trough upon his forward velocity is beginning to predominate. A shift in track NNE should begin momentarily

Not expecting any organization until he loses the west component to his forward velocity...

Tropical feeling out there today is legit. Especially with the breeze. Yep a TS is incoming.

For the first time in a while also looks like dry air will no longer be a hinderance.

For the first time in a while, there’s no other competing convective areas in the general area of Isaias. This is likely an important precondition to surface pressure falls and to reduce subsidence in the vicinity of the LLC which should help to slightly improve feedbacks and the mesoscale environment for strengthening. It *appears* the pulsing phase may have finally ended...

A lot if the only favorable parameter is the water and its warm temperature.

Bad link. Tnks.

Not so sure about shear being gone, it's just that once Isaias makes turn N and then NNE, the mid and upper vector of shear will be more in line with steering flow. Atmospheric dynamics could become more favorable for intensification. The real meat and potatos of this forecast is going to be if there is landfall along the Florida coast and how long it is over land. This. Also watch the deep tropical moisture fetch generated by the digging of the approaching Upper level trough. It will be quite different from the dry air he’s been ingesting for the better part of the past 2 days.

The key here is all of the limiting factors abate. Dry air will be gone as will the wind shear. And SST’s still very warm, in the mid 80’s. The main issue then becomes one of time.

The euro initialized with Isaias at 1000 mb 12z Friday. It has him down to 995 mb by 12z Saturday. Isaia’s current min surface pressure is 991 mb. No model, including the 12z Euro has this storm weakening between now and tomorrow. So you take this piece of guidance and you toss....far....