jbenedet

Seems cape cod and island will get it pretty good first. TS warnings already issued there...

Yes many other important variables to consider. For the time being, though, i think it’s critical to note that a more direct westward trajectory means a closer pass to Florida. If there are no/very minimal wobbles, The longitudinal gain is maximized prior to the complete loss of steering currents and stall.

Really would like to understand more about how this incredible inertial stability will affect the track. Have to think, all other things being equal, it will take a more substantial weakness in the flow, to alter Dorian’s trajectory. Greater angular velocity—>greater angular momentum—> less wobbles/future trajectory—> persistence

This looks a lot like yesterday’s 12z GEFS which I still strongly favor.

Strongly favoring the 12z GEFS over 12z euro/EPS ensembles. Pattern, broadly is progressive. 12z GEFS makes a lot more sense with the landfall and subsequent “hard right”. NHC 5 pm cone appears to be a middle ground.

Water. Storm Surge and rainfall. That should be the focus in general, but especially down in southern Florida.

Just a quick look but little surprised by SPC’s limited interest in severe for Wednesday. Antecedent airmass looks great. As does timing for eastern third of the forum. Decent UL height falls...Limiting factor appears to be shear, but that parameter should be conducive in CNE/ NNE, for at least widespread pulse, maybe an MCS in SE NH/ Maine?

Think there’s a 50/50 chance we see a lemon over the north central Gulf as this UL trough digs south over the next 24 hrs. Seems to be increasing model support for a weak surface low, collocated with deep convection near LA, tracking east, pretty close to the coast. Little chance this has the environment or time to develop into something more meaningful. Just something to watch.

I’m not buying the due west track into Texas. It seems to me that it’s a very unusual track given a) a starting Latitude that easily feels the westerlies and typically sees recurvature (climo), b)Absence of a robust WAR (which we clearly don’t have). Steering flow appears weak and ambiguous after the trough largely misses, but leaves a slight weakness in its wake. Right now I strongly prefer the meander n/nnw into LA.

Was out at York beach today and was shocked how warm the water is...just checked buoys throughout the Gulf of Maine...lots of upper 60’s and low 70’s already....For early July? Wow...

Bro. It’s june frickin 1st.

Dr. Doo and Damage in Troll-land

Heh and put the blinders on for Monday - Tuesday potential. 6z FV3 GFS looks a lot like the euro now...

So which is it? “With this horrific pattern thru May”...

GFS continues to hint at a big storm potential around days 7-9. It’s a long shot but it’s all I’ve got, with this crappy pattern holding strong...