jbenedet

I was right in the middle of that tornado warned cell in Dover; it was nasty. Definitely was inside a very weak circulation for a time but don’t think it ever tightened up enough to get classified. No damage in my immediate area but an awesome storm.

I find it a bit odd that the NHC hasn't flagged this system with moderate to high probs for development into a tropical/sub tropical cyclone yet. I'm not sure what it's classifying it as (A Nor' Easter in middle of Summer in the sub tropics???), but there's clearly a Mid Level circulation off the coast of North Carolina based on radar and visible satellite, and the guidance consensus track takes this over SST's that are marginally supportive of maintaining tropical characteristics as it moves north and then northwestward towards the Del Marva...

Door slightly opens for a TC to impact the east coast late next week, as a deep trough is showing up on most guidance moving across the plains, accompanied by a stronger WAR. GEFS are hinting at potential for TC development off the SE coast during that time frame. Just something to watch.

Sat-Tues. Then we pay for it Wed to Sunday. I’ll take it though.

That line is going to be vicious if it holds up for southern parts of the sub forum. Really intense gradient...Downed trees and gusts over 60 reported in NYC metro out ahead of it...Coastal NJ about to get slammed.

Geeze, what a look on the 12z EPS. Still would be predominately frozen subforum wide at 12z Monday with SLP over DC and 1041 mb hp 300 miles north of Caribou ME.

I think more than anything it's important to have low level CAD ongoing if temps are marginal. I think the LHR warming could under-perform in this case, especially early on. LHR is very effective at ending freezing rain with marginal surface temps when CAD ends/flips to WAD.

Yea, it looks as though we could have more sleet and snow, than freezing rain. I'm starting to think the major icing is further west/southwest in Northern Mid Atlantic and Upstate NY.

Most impressive aspect - and this is saying a lot - given climo is this is at day 4. And we usually see cold tucks modeled too warm up to go time, but especially outside 48 hrs....

Gradient wind enough to do the trick? That is a 1045 - 1050 mb hp. It's one helluva gradient despite the 995ish mb storm.

Went from a nice spring day in mid 40’s with sun to moderate snow falling in 15 min.

Yea and it means business. Looks like heavy banding trying to pinwheel into Bangor. DE ME will be New England jp, AWT. But that's not saying much given highest amounts are around 8" in parts of CT (I believe)....

Where are the obs in ME? That banding looks healthy and its backed all the way into Millinocket already...Augusta and Portland Look like moderate snow as well... Moderate snow in Exeter NH; I'd estimate close to 2" right now.

Looks like it just stacked to H7 so we should see the precip shield expand quite a bit over the next few hours.

H7 Low is closed as is H5 --atmosphere is equiv barotropic within that circulation when it stacks. Guidance has center passing over LI. You want to be where the temperature/moisture advections and warm/cold conveyors are at work - not at the center of it all.... You can also see here on WV imagery how the CCB wraps sinking (dry) air into the circulation and that is punching in toward SNJ and LI. Want the mid levels to close and track south/east of you - not over or to the west of you... http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_US/animwv.html