Jump to content

jbenedet

Meteorologist
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    7,836

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    I’d actually prefer a snowless winter to just end this debate once and for all. Just slay it. I want the headlines. A big part of this trap is the subtlety of the rate of change… It’s time we all came around to a common reality on this topic.
  2. jbenedet
    Looks like it’s made a turn north
  3. jbenedet
    Location?
  4. jbenedet
    -NAO developing… I’d take the over on slower ejection northeast and more blocking from the NB high. Therefore take the over on rainfall totals, where the training has already set up along the coast.
  5. jbenedet
    985 at that latitude on 9/26 put it in a very rare group for North America Increasingly awkward position if they don’t want to classify this as STC
  6. jbenedet
    Good morning from your ‘Not’ a nor Easter.
  7. jbenedet
    If not in real time it will happen in the post storm reanalysis
  8. jbenedet
    Pretty clear on the guidance that the evolution is mid lat cyclone to STC to tropical warm core/STC.
  9. jbenedet
    Much warmer SST’s than with sandy also affect thermal expansion and higher sea level. A marginal factor but another consideration…
  10. jbenedet
    This already has that eye type feature you only see on sub 975 mb mid latitude cyclones or true STC’s
  11. jbenedet
    Trees snapped in half rather than uprooted bc the tree line wind was ripping but the ground was rock hard and didn’t have efficient mixing to surface in gusts. That looks opposite with this one.
  12. jbenedet
    I remember distinctly with Sandy it was a dry storm on LI and drought conditions leading into it. That really helped mitigate the wind and power outage impacts. This is obviously a much weaker storm but the convective nature of it should help to maximize the rainfall (fresh water flooding) and wind threat along the coast.
  13. jbenedet
    I don’t think sub 990 mb mslp happens south of 40N in late September unless there is a tropical aspect to the system. Baroclinicity alone isn’t sufficient for that level of deepening.
  14. jbenedet
    I have long been a critic of the NHC on topics like this. Way behind the ball. I think they need to reconsider their mission statement. NHC tracking fish storms in the middle of the Atlantic….some 2000+miles away from any civilization. Meanwhile 10+ million Americans exposed to a modeled tropical type storm inside 48 hours and they haven’t even flagged it.
  15. jbenedet
    There’s actually three areas of SLP development and the one south of Cuba is the most interesting…
  16. jbenedet
    We should see less divergence in the major guidance later today as the storm starts to take shape off the coast of the Carolina’s.
  17. jbenedet
    The GFS continues to focus on the synoptic forcing near the mid latitudes for the primary surface reflection development; whereas the Euro and euroAI are much further southwest with the best area of surface pressure falls, driven by tropical forcing — latent heat release.
  18. jbenedet
    Biggest storm potential probably since March. The coastal surface reflection forms in the subtropics and phases with a mid level disturbance. We’ll have to see if we can get a named system out of this before reaches the mid latitudes. That will be the difference between run of the mill or something more unique, as advertised on the WPC output.
  19. jbenedet
    And crab grass. The cold weather grasses don’t stand a chance on lawns around here. much of seacoast doesn’t know managing landscapes well and boy it shows in this warmer climate
  20. jbenedet
    not typical by climate standards but I do expect this now. Another 90+ degree day here
  21. jbenedet
    Not sure what it is this year but no light nig/thunder this year; just downpours and wind.
  22. jbenedet
  23. jbenedet
    Gardeners and farmers don’t forget the year ago pattern. It’s imprinted on us like a scar. A few of us here fit that mold.
  24. jbenedet
    If you want to make a cogent background warming argument it’s that we have BN persistence in the northeast but N to AN tendency.
  25. jbenedet
×
×
  • Create New...