jbenedet

This is just a poor critical thinking exercise, honestly. Sorry you didn't get the observations you were hoping for. Try much harder --if you can-- at explaining the physics/chemistry. Hint: those dews were sitting in the upper 20's. Was that broken too? Perhaps 1 hour obs and 1 temperature probe isn't telling the full picture??? LOL. This is pathetic level thinking here.

Nope.

Laughable having PWM as same climate to Dover NH. That's like Gloucester MA vs BED.

There was a very brief window Saturday night we dipped to 30/28. but other than that —33/31; I sat here too. That brief window was largely dry until precip started again overnight Saturday but we then quickly warmed back up to 33/31.. I think what you had was more of a stale mate between the chemical processes of melting/freezing. Whatever had accreted during the coldest points was maintaining but couldn’t accrete further from there. Melting was cooling then freezing was warming…see saw leading to nothing but the initial glaze from when the cold made its best push. This event really was limited by no persistent CAD drain. It really shows when you have to go to Winne north to find damage.

I was watching that here too. To be honest all this skepticism is really lame when it could be verified with a reliable, calibrated thermometer. This isn’t theoretical stuff.

Yea will take the bike out this afternoon. Perfect.

ASH and PSM?

Yea I know everything but the cold obs are running warm. MHT is “fixed” when it’s colder than progged though.

PWM? GWDLT

Pretty sure March will be around +8 for my hood. It was a “long winter” for some of those in SNE though.

Pretty cool to see a battle in very early spring where the warmth ultimately wins. we 70+ High temp records look threatened.

It’s all relative and for late March it’s not terrible. 40/32 and dry; I’ll take that any day over the rock bottom weather we had yesterday; stuck in the low 30’s and spitting rain/frozen mix all day… It’s actually possible to get stuff done outside today.

This is probably the third time in at about 5 years where I missed significant icing by ~1.5 degrees… In terms of natural disaster risk this has definitely felt the closest; with multiple “near misses”.

Today does actually look on track to be okay here. Far from good but much better than yesterday. Nothing that has fallen overnight has accreted; stuck at 33/31 since about 8 p.m. last night. Doesn’t cut it for ice. Precip will shut off here in a few hours and winds out of the SE should bring up the dews and temps above 40 by this afternoon.

Kinda funny that I’m looking forward to tomorrow’s 40’s and overcast… Weather is that bad today.

Another event where I’m grateful to be 7 miles south of DAW. Such a persistent gradient for a winter stronghold; DAW on north.

58/11

South of the main boundary sure... But looking where it has already pressed south of...The pressure field really isn't conducive. The 1030 mb bermuda high is really inhibiting the ageo flow. I'm not seeing much --if any -- second cold push. Tonight's surface low/disturbance has been grinded up on guidance - so you're losing the delta in the meso pressure gradient to enhance as well... Generally, this looks like low dews to wet bulb and then persistent rot....

This setup has clearly evolved from a persistent cold drain scenario to an antecedent cold shot.

Except when we're talking about wetbulbing right? LOL I mean, the whole premise of where the boundary sets up is based on how dense the antecedent airmass is...

It's not even close, region wide.

NAM is actually a lot warmer on Saturday than previous run.

The HRRR is OTL on the cold shot this evening. 12z NAM has dews in low 20’s at 21z tonight while HRRR is 6-8F…

The HRRR has dews in the mid single digits here tonight, by 21z. That’s very suspect… The euro dews at same time frame are in the upper teens. Currently 49/26…

Saturday trended colder but the warmth is winning now Sunday to Monday. Better cold push tonight but there isn’t a secondary cold push on Sunday so even north of the surface boundary subtly/slowly starts to warm… Instead of a prolonged wintry event it’s become just Saturday, excluding Winne north…