jbenedet

Probably should be noted that a high amplitude 7 to 8 MJO progression in late January around the time of a strong shortwave is the thing forecasting nightmares are made of.

I get that. The proximity of the phases and guidance didn’t help here. 7 is one of our warmest in Jan, and the wave progression was 7 to 8 around go time. I bit on it bc the synoptic look across major guidance matched 8, but it’s all trended away from that quickly.

No I’m watching through this morning. Need to see latest data.

My forecast hinged on MJO 8 type synoptic look and the guidance has completely lost that in 36 hours and I’m seeing much more of a 7 synoptic look. The specific MJO guidance has also changed…

Yup. Gotta know when to fold em.

The mid level height look is completely different from 36 hours ago on major guidance.

This is MJO phase 7. Just need surface temps to respond in kind. We stick a +NAO here and no stopping the mid level height build in the east. The EC AIFS also has the main show trending to the trailing shortwave which is also when our 1040 surface high is yielding… This could get a lot warmer. Nuts.

That primary holding on in Ontario on the EC AIFS is looking MJO 7 and can definitely get a lot warmer from there if legit. Pretty crazy…

The huge shift of mid levels on the GEFS in like 4 runs has me shook. My take is we are having major head fakes given the MJO progression uncertainty as 7 is AN in the east with +NAO tendency, but 8 is sig BN with -NAO tendency. The guidance has been waffling on the progression for days. First was sitting in 7; then quick progression to 8; now I see a split— some showing sticking in 7, others quick to 8… It’s now that all of the latest guidance is looking a lot more like an MJO 7 synoptic pattern. The crazy part about that is if we do settle in 7, I believe this continues further north. That primary on the EC AIFS in Ontario is a shade of how much more this could trend…warmer…. I’ll make a call later this morning… Should have enough data to see which way this will break.

Can’t wait for the model indigestion from this impending -NAO.

Overnight - The EC-AIFS has trended further south but also a lot more amped. the other major guidance has trended north and more amped. There’s been an improved consensus. I think it’s most telling to see the EC-AIFS amp up but that doesn’t translate to a track further north. This is important. I like the 6z EC-AIFS - its current depiction and QPF as a baseline from here.

Hmmm…

Yea that’s where I’m at.

As much as I dislike DT… Seeing a 994 low off the east coast doesn’t get ya excited but if the delta is with a 1040+ mb arctic high less than 500 miles away……. It’s a big dawg.

No. I have said I80 south is in line for the heavy snows. I’m sticking to that. Basically NYC/LI south. definitely stay very interested in southern coast, out to south coast MA

You are in a spot worth watching for something more than advisory. But odds go way down just north of you imo. Watch the mid level height field compress out of New Brunswick over time; with more of a -NAO tapestry in the east.

More ridging but stronger surface high and positive tilt. I think the trend on overnight guidance was to load up this already-explosive setup by tightening the delta between the arctic and the tropics.

The surface high is intensifying over our heads on guidance. I’d call it Canadian but it’s over our head throughout. Filling in for Quebec.. Great news for our southern neighbors who love snow

Positive trade off to eliminate the daily black ice risk. Too much of this in December and January. Cities could do more, but they don’t.

The phasing will mean you crush mid Atlantic on the east coast with mid levels but that whole long wave trough development is severely positively tilted in the east. It’s a spin up with limited latitude gain.

This looking more and more like a crusher for ACY, DC, Baltimore. There is a -NAO developing around the time this makes it to the east coast, so a slower track and more phasing are likely than currently modeled. That said I don’t think that portends a big latitude gain.

Zzzzzz 1982-1983 was a record setting EL Nino. AN in the north; very warm winter. Meanwhile Boston running -5 in a moderate La Niña….

I guess you all miss the verification scores of the EPS/GEFS vs the ops at this lead time…it’s not even close.

You need a new shtick. I was all over this storm.

yes Richmond VA as ground zero… 5 days, but this is not a complex setup. No multiple shortwaves or potential phasing of streams type variability. I’m seeing most of the forecast is about a significant arctic airmass… the shortwave will ride the boundary… That’s it. I think we gain a day or two of guidance accuracy given the lack of complexity here.