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Everything posted by jbenedet
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Yeh; no kiddin'. The teles scream amped solution. This one looks like poor timing in a good longwave pattern. The Northern stream looks like it will phase early, and cleanly with the southern stream over the central US. The southern stream vort is also amped, early on out west. The building PNA ridge allows the northern stream to drop right into the central plains. Kaboom. I'm worried about warm sectoring into SE northern new england. This thing is gonna crank. Too much of a good thing, for most.
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
jbenedet replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Allow the multi-day torch to commence. Exceed average daily high by 10 am kinda day. 45 is a lock for PSM. 47 my bet. +12 -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
jbenedet replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
I was driving through Andover MA this past weekend and saw a field of broccoli heads coming up. Had to triple take it…. That’s at least a month early. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
jbenedet replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Yes that’s another good point. By this time of the year, for buildings/homes that get good sun, you’re def using less heat at 35 and full sun than 45 and clouds. And yea does a lot to improve your day to day sentiment in the heart of winter. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
jbenedet replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Not really. By feb, 35 and full sun is like 45 real feel; can even feel closer to 50 in city scapes, if wind is completely calm. Also does a lot to brighten things up—lower absolute humidity levels in winter and no vegetation maximize ISR in the biosphere, right at the surface. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
jbenedet replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Only because the snow maps weren’t producing much at all for New England. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
jbenedet replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Looks more like late November than early February. And this is before the warmup this week in the northeast which will push the pack line back to Winne. Wouldn’t use early feb climo with snow pack and SST’s up here… Better use a significant + surface temp bias in SNE or risk getting burned. -
Did you say geese?
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It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
jbenedet replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
That’s what makes a rat in this part of the world -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
jbenedet replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
Big snows will always be close in Dec and Jan, we live in New England lol. I def would not feel good about a forecast on that merit. -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
jbenedet replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
The outcomes to date have been pretty damn textbook significant El Niño. Just following that seasonal forecast would have yield great accuracy results to date -
It was a Flop... February 2024 Disco. Thread
jbenedet replied to Prismshine Productions's topic in New England
That curious look for the cold shot this weekend with massive ridge in plains and trough in the northeast is going to continue to flatten out It looks very MJO phase 6ish. Notorious lag, i know but we've been in phase 7 and will remain so into the weekend. Sell BN. Think good chance it turns out AN both days. Likely really nice for early feb.. -
Radar looks good in northern mid Atlantic but that’s decaying as it swings east, and the mid levels open back up. Misconception to think that whole structure swings through tonight in that same state. It’s also going to speed up. I feel like 2” is optimistic scenario here; and most likely outcome is a coating.