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jbenedet

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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    Looks good. Liking the 0.25 contour cutting through DAW. Another case where Rochester has a lot more icing risk than my hood just 10 miles SE. I could see DAW getting 0.25” but my backyard getting less than 0.1”. We’ve had a number of events with very favorable atmospheric icing conditions but a degree or less saves us from disaster. Not the case just 5 miles to my northwest…
  2. jbenedet
    I think the sig icing risk is confined to the valleys of NNE. Atmosphere is warm just above the surface…
  3. jbenedet
    Thought this was too interesting not to post. Never would have guessed Maine and NH top the list vs points out in the pacific north west. New England pride on this one —for me anyway. https://www.islands.com/2055872/america-most-forested-state-east-coast-gem-atlantic-views/
  4. jbenedet
    There was no “tick-tick” north on the GEFS or EPS. Noise on the GFS op. The -NAO block is intensifying so i don’t see a surprise last minute jump north with this. 5-10” storm for NYC metro. Models have been locked.
  5. jbenedet
    Yea that is the way. What a tough forecast for PWM… 8” is a good forecast though, all things considered…
  6. jbenedet
    I’m not expecting more than 0.2” LE from this. 4-6” range here is shtoooopid.
  7. jbenedet
    yea my mistake. Thanks. I thought you were taking a break from here? Family time cancel?
  8. jbenedet
    GFS radar output is like snizzle/light snow varying intensity for 6 hours. That’s it for my hood.
  9. jbenedet
    Very difficult forecast for PWM. There’s going to be a very narrow area 6”+ amounts with this..
  10. jbenedet
    Hope ya’ll checking the progged radar output on the 12z GFS.
  11. jbenedet
    Too low in midcoast Maine to Portland. 6z EPS had 1” qpf. There will be a over a foot locally there. Also think this is too high over here. This map appears as more of an uncertainty cast as to where the band sets up… The band will be about 100 miles wide; go with 2” outside of that and call it a day.
  12. jbenedet
    Yea not talking about that. Talking about later…
  13. jbenedet
    The shit streak surprise in SNE tells me expect some forcing to be robbed with the part two “lead” of the clippah.
  14. jbenedet
    Better off taking the under 10:1 on ratios. I also don’t see how I eek out 0.25” qpf here but all the guidance showing it… On ratios - the risks are not BLtemp related but lift, weak snow growth, and scattered light precip. None of this bodes well to stack. 7:1 probably better hedge… Unless you get into the IVT this should be the story in eastern New England sans Maine and the far interior of NH.
  15. jbenedet
    Virga she wrote… Virga sheeeeeee wrote.
  16. jbenedet
    This still looks more like a late blooming miller B to me. Two maxes. One in far western sections before the transfer and the second in mid coast- down east Maine, + (maybe the cape). There will be a min in between that transfer as clipper fizzles. Think less norlun, more miller B ish type evolution.
  17. jbenedet
    lol “storm”. Yea go run with that to your friends. Tell them about the incoming storm. Moose fart is more like it.
  18. jbenedet
    There’s a late blooming miller b type distribution of qpf showing up on the ensemble guidance. That’s likely how this evolves… A local max at points west of CT river, and then points east in Maine with the weak/late redevelopment. Very weak system overall.
  19. jbenedet
    The EPS and GEFS are nothing like the ops. All kinds of red flags on the 6z euro with a 1007 mb low near PWM on the 6z EPS and weaker from the prior run. This is a weak low surrounded by surface highs, with no opportunity to amplify with the mid level flow compressing out of southeast Canada. Shrediola.
  20. jbenedet
    Seeing some rich green grass pop through the snow cover has me thinking this early season snowfall did a lot of good to help my young lawn establish further before being really stressed.
  21. jbenedet
    This storm just kept steadily intensifying on all guidance over time. Now seeing 969 mb, on the euro, about 200 miles north of Quebec City.
  22. jbenedet
    Agreed. But usually if there’s a refreeze the morning before temp/td spike you can get some resistance out of the pack. No chance if it’s been thawing for 24+ hours, as will be in this case.
  23. jbenedet
    Guidance was too low for the morning temps up here. Even DAW stayed comfortably above freezing all night.
  24. jbenedet
    Real killer to the pack is 32+ dews though and that happened before midnight and kept slowly rising all morning.
  25. jbenedet
    Today’s progged highs will easily be exceeded. Upper 40’s in view for many.
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