jbenedet

I’d get excited about a comeback if the warm/wet storms weren’t so goddamn warm. I mean, the calendar won’t help us when it’s been 5-10 degrees above freezing, generally. You need wholesale changes. You overlay what has happened storm-wise (take a mean) at peak winter climo and it’s still trash. Maybe this changes in a month, but right now the persistence forecast is near as bad as it gets for winter-weather.

I mean with the El Niño backdrop it makes sense to have the high precip amounts; but we’re at record levels. I see it differently- El Niño conditions will persist, we know that. We can’t get every 2”+ rain producer on the continent and also expect the cold interludes to consistently track the big snow producers over our heads. The p anomalies in this regard would be insane. It’s a bad bet. The very stormy pattern for us is when it’s warm. Very warm. That continues to be the case. That’s balanced by brief periods of seasonal cold and dry.

We can’t get every storm guys. We gonna blow every precip record away? Lol. Dry has to happen some time; unfortunately it’s with the cold.

Check out the trend in New Brunswick. Surface HP. But that trend is still in early innings…

I mean, that would happen but confluence is building in the western Atlantic at this time. It’s going to offset that correction, imo.

That is def the trend.

I am skeptical; I think it’s one of these that occludes around Virginia’s latitude and slides ENE. Worth watching though.

That’s a well timed Canadian surface HP showing up on the 6z GFS. Watch this trend. Pay attention Mid Atlantic/extreme southern New England.

I’m in general agreement with all of this. But just want to highlight surface highs can make sneaky appearances. For one, this map doesn’t at all align with -NAO look in the western Atlantic which is forecasted in the teleconnections out ahead of the Jan 4 disturbance. The 6z GFS op is starting to pick up on it… I believe that trend is real. Too much of a good thing for us northerners, maybe not for the south coast. Heads up Mid Atlantic.

This is kinda my point all the time; makes no sense to use calendar climo if the world around you doesn’t match it. We have Dec 29th sun, that is all. If the landscape is similar by mid Jan, better off using Nov climo as a guide until/unless winter makes a sustained run to take us back towards mean conditions.

The 6th-7th threat looks gone to me; no way to get this up to our latitude until further notice. Focus is on the prior shortwave; around the 4th. I think this one trends south too, but it will end up a much closer threat, than the latter. Worth tracking. My guess is first shortwave is centered around the Mid Atlantic, the second the southeast. The snippets below are concerning the Jan 7th disturbance.

No upper level ridging in the western Atlantic. Not a hiccup; it’s the sticking issue for this one, I’m afraid. Congrats Asheville.

I mean it looks like a big system. Tearing a hole in the upper atmosphere has no problem yielding sufficient cold in winter, generally. That’s a given. The general tapestry at the surface looks BN in the south; N to slightly AN to the north. Common layout for Southern snowstorms.

Gonna be cut-off happy, me thinks. It’s generally colder so it does mean snow wherever that happens. I like south better than north right now. Gonna take some time for guidance to come around to it though. Big changes in the NAO still have to materialize.

Yea I’m not worried about ptype with this, as I believe it hooks up with the mid levels. The +temp anomalies I’m seeing on guidance in the north has me thinking the real risk is in missing out is that it’s a southern snow storm—>mason dixon on south. That’s what is being hinted at. The Teles will also be primed to phasing during that window—early phase/cut-off,

Jan 6 - 930’s in the GOM. 6z GFS. Wonky run much? Point remains this is the best window for a big snowstorm in the east. Pattern doesn’t look good beyond it either, which brings it into even greater focus. Looking at the teles, my “best guess” take is the current evolution is going to change this from a NE threat to a Mid Atlantic/Southeast snow storm. Phase of Northern Stream/southern stream likely, but much further southwest. There’s some hints showing up on this in the GEFS/EPS with T 850/T surface anomalies positive to the north with deeply negative south of mason Dixon. Anyway, we watch.

Eh. Sure. Perhaps we’re not evaluating these maps similarly. I’m doing more than just reading T values/anomalies but keying on which air masses are where. I.e., if signs indicate CP airmass just to our north/west, I wouldn’t be making the observation. I’m in agreement that this window is best in a while, but still doesn’t look good imo.

I’m gonna be that guy again, but current guidance shows BL warmth during that 4-6th timeframe. It’s not prohibitive to snow, but def limiting. POP also highest where surface is warmest. Still a ways away but as I see it, not enough to get excited about until/unless some big changes on the ensembles.

Congrats. Where in SC (specifically) you moving from?

What’s prompting the move? I’m asking because I’m strongly considering a move to the area you’re leaving.

I am still finding it remarkable how immediate term guidance has been 5-10 degrees too cold region wide on days like today.

Wherever lucky enough to clear, 50’s achievable.

It’s actually green more than brown.

https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nsa/

We’re now tracking behind month ago snow cover.