jbenedet
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Everything posted by jbenedet
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It’s all relative and for late March it’s not terrible. 40/32 and dry; I’ll take that any day over the rock bottom weather we had yesterday; stuck in the low 30’s and spitting rain/frozen mix all day… It’s actually possible to get stuff done outside today.
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This is probably the third time in at about 5 years where I missed significant icing by ~1.5 degrees… In terms of natural disaster risk this has definitely felt the closest; with multiple “near misses”.
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Today does actually look on track to be okay here. Far from good but much better than yesterday. Nothing that has fallen overnight has accreted; stuck at 33/31 since about 8 p.m. last night. Doesn’t cut it for ice. Precip will shut off here in a few hours and winds out of the SE should bring up the dews and temps above 40 by this afternoon.
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Kinda funny that I’m looking forward to tomorrow’s 40’s and overcast… Weather is that bad today.
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Another event where I’m grateful to be 7 miles south of DAW. Such a persistent gradient for a winter stronghold; DAW on north.
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58/11
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South of the main boundary sure... But looking where it has already pressed south of...The pressure field really isn't conducive. The 1030 mb bermuda high is really inhibiting the ageo flow. I'm not seeing much --if any -- second cold push. Tonight's surface low/disturbance has been grinded up on guidance - so you're losing the delta in the meso pressure gradient to enhance as well... Generally, this looks like low dews to wet bulb and then persistent rot....
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This setup has clearly evolved from a persistent cold drain scenario to an antecedent cold shot.
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Except when we're talking about wetbulbing right? LOL I mean, the whole premise of where the boundary sets up is based on how dense the antecedent airmass is...
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It's not even close, region wide.
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NAM is actually a lot warmer on Saturday than previous run.
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The HRRR is OTL on the cold shot this evening. 12z NAM has dews in low 20’s at 21z tonight while HRRR is 6-8F…
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The HRRR has dews in the mid single digits here tonight, by 21z. That’s very suspect… The euro dews at same time frame are in the upper teens. Currently 49/26…
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Saturday trended colder but the warmth is winning now Sunday to Monday. Better cold push tonight but there isn’t a secondary cold push on Sunday so even north of the surface boundary subtly/slowly starts to warm… Instead of a prolonged wintry event it’s become just Saturday, excluding Winne north…
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NAM has high in the 50's here tomorrow...
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NAM will come in warmer again, at least for friday into saturday
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Yea I just saw the dews in Ontario and northern Maine. Where the winds are more northerly definitely cold to tap; I guess my point is regarding seacoast NH - I’m seeing more of an easterly wind.
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Warmth is pushing to win eventually here in eastern CNE and SNE but it’s not until late Sunday into Monday. Losing the long wave ridging out west is allowing for the incoming shortwave to deepen more over the plains and pump the WAR.
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I’m still wondering where these mid 30’s temps are coming from in seacoast NH with every piece of guidance cooked just above the surface. The GOM is broadly in the low 40’s and winds are predominantly with a significant easterly component so no answer there either.
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I believe somewhere in that 36-39” range but if I had to guess I’m right around 39.
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Don’t have exact but I believe a hair below 40”
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What a short winter. A coating through December, a dusting through March.
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Exactly.
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Yea when it's 100+ hrs out. All day. It's not even really a back door, with the surface anoms to the north, basically normal. The question is if we warm sector or not. Not backdoor... No one is selling 70+ in Dover at this point. But I do think 60+ is a better bet than sub 40 and misery mist.
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Already by 18z Saturday you have all of the deep cold bottled up towards Hudson bay Canada. This is a battle that the warmth can win for most of us...
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