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jbenedet

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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    The 6z AI GFS has completely lost the mid level -height anoms in the east now. Also the long wave ridge axis is like 300 miles west of Washington state now..
  2. jbenedet
    To me the cold is dumping increasingly in the central conus and much less so in the east. The -AO is legit. That will also give fuel to the primary to hold on longer “bend back” than latest guidance.
  3. jbenedet
    It’s not done.
  4. jbenedet
    Yea agree that this willl be juicier in that regard The antecedent airmass is also warming…albeit from a very cold to cold in the east. Need to watch it closely… But the typical areas that can’t rely on just the antecedent airmass to stay all snow need to worry about a lot of mixing already. Cape/islands, coastal RI and CT.
  5. jbenedet
    That Canadian high position though…
  6. jbenedet
    GEFS is like 4 runs away from saying “what PV?”
  7. jbenedet
    100 hours to go…
  8. jbenedet
    This is wonky. The dual surface lows.. What I’m thinking is more that the lead wave fizzles and the trailing surface reflection is our main storm up here… An how that would change the mid level evolution if that lead wave is dampened completely.
  9. jbenedet
    There is sooo much long wave spacing out west to get this further north. That ridge axis out west keeps inching west. It’s basically in general position where we open up inland runner risk…
  10. jbenedet
    Tbh the mid level support isn’t there to anchor the high. Given the intensity of the trailing shortwave it’s not much to see it slide east and become that giant surface high that merges with the WAR that we’ve seen happen so many times before…. The Canadian surface high kicking east like 24 hours sooner is basically the only thing that needs to change to take on a high amplitude MJO phase 7 look which we will be in at go time… Not much given still 100 hours out.
  11. jbenedet
    She ain’t done going north. Question is, how far she go…
  12. jbenedet
    I know, I know it’s just the CMC But. it looks a lot like the trending in the respected EPS… Same behavior… very similar look Look less at the SLP and more at the long wave features….
  13. jbenedet
    The resolving of long wave features that the EPS and GEFS typically can reliably provide inside 10 days was absent. That was the rug pull. In just 6 runs inside 6 days the EPS is looking completely different in synoptic evolution. The lead wave is a side show. Everything moving to the trailing shortwave for us in the east.
  14. jbenedet
    Wrong take. Anyway….I said my piece. We watch 12z
  15. jbenedet
    EC AIFS definitely saying balance is toward warmer solution in the east from here. Just seeing the low level cold anoms increase in the central CONUS and greatly relative to the east coast is pretty telling.
  16. jbenedet
    EC AIFS saying “what cold” in the east with all that cold to back into in the central conus. wow.
  17. jbenedet
    I’m not sure it’s going warmer but I think that risk is higher than colder from here. I folded and now I’m wait and see..
  18. jbenedet
    Probably should be noted that a high amplitude 7 to 8 MJO progression in late January around the time of a strong shortwave is the thing forecasting nightmares are made of.
  19. jbenedet
    I get that. The proximity of the phases and guidance didn’t help here. 7 is one of our warmest in Jan, and the wave progression was 7 to 8 around go time. I bit on it bc the synoptic look across major guidance matched 8, but it’s all trended away from that quickly.
  20. jbenedet
    No I’m watching through this morning. Need to see latest data.
  21. jbenedet
    My forecast hinged on MJO 8 type synoptic look and the guidance has completely lost that in 36 hours and I’m seeing much more of a 7 synoptic look. The specific MJO guidance has also changed…
  22. jbenedet
    Yup. Gotta know when to fold em.
  23. jbenedet
    The mid level height look is completely different from 36 hours ago on major guidance.
  24. jbenedet
    This is MJO phase 7. Just need surface temps to respond in kind. We stick a +NAO here and no stopping the mid level height build in the east. The EC AIFS also has the main show trending to the trailing shortwave which is also when our 1040 surface high is yielding… This could get a lot warmer. Nuts.
  25. jbenedet
    That primary holding on in Ontario on the EC AIFS is looking MJO 7 and can definitely get a lot warmer from there if legit. Pretty crazy…
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