jbenedet

The 18z nam was a lot colder for the weekend. wagon's south.

Dews in the low teens and I doubt my high gets out of the low 20's on Sunday. Not a recipe for big snow sans a mid level hook up and CCB, which is not the case here... Congrats SOP. wagons south.

Perfect high placement with arctic airmass in place. I think this is great setup for a 6"-10" storm, pike south. I think the risk is we see ticks south on this, and a sharp cut off just to the north. The ensembles are already showing it. LI, coastal CT RI and southeast MA is where you want to be imo.

That's some serious cold in Quebec on Saturday - Sunday. Sub zero highs, in quebec city. I think suppression risk is real for NNE. Looks great for the southern crew though.

I actually think you're in a pretty good spot for a few inches. I'm expecting much more of an East/west gradient with this one. Looks like a classic coastal front setup - along 95 and maybe up over my head by 21z tomorrow.

Will be interesting to see how surface temps perform tomorrow along the coast. The mesolow is a bit of a forecast trap given the syntopic ageo gradient is still very much oriented off the atlantic, with the primary in ontario at ~988 mb, and surface high to our south/east. Winds are out of the south/east along the coast as early as 12z tomorrow...The surface cold seen on guidance for tomorrow morning is very shallow and radiational cooling induced - the atmosphere is otherwise relatively warm to start.

Mid winter Jan/15 to feb 15 has been sufficient to bring and sustain winter down to the southern border of NH and VT with pretty remarkable consistency this year, and years prior. The deep cold in Canada has been able to reach to this margin, but not any further. It’s a hard cut off just south of there—with more March vibes than early February throughout 90% most of SNE. Really consistent latitudinal gradient…

Today’s cold shot is here but it just seems like it keeps getting delayed. Really surprised to see 34 this morning heading into work. The guidance still clearly wants to punch in the cold tonight into tomorrow morning. How much substance it has will dictate the Thursday snowfall potential…

SW winds 14 mph at ORH last hour. Quick check upstream: 44/40 at Philly current hour. This is a cold front passage but oriented N/S rather than E/W but it’s not a back door. It’s really warm ahead of it; the temp doesn’t stop rising until the front moves through.

lol that NAM run. Really is something relying on a model that’s 5 degrees too cold at initialization. The 6z euro is tracking much closer to current temps. PSM already 36/28

24F in Dover. Not one piece of operational guidance was close. Already ~ +5 vs the operational guidance. Yea I know MOS guidance better in this regard, but that MOS guidance aint producing our clown maps.

This morning's cold shot getting digested in short term models but it's fleeting. It's out by this evening. Today's temps are already coming in warmer than progged.

Leave it to the Nam for a wholesale shift inside 36 hours. The 6z Euro continues to tick warmer at 850, and is all rain even here in SE NH.

My hunch is if you warm sectored bigly today you’re not in a good spot for majority frozen on Friday.

Ya and even the GEFS calling out the op. one run bump

GFS for today. Caught up to close, but still too cold. So trustworthy for Friday

Zzzzz

Thurs event looks warm on the ensemble guidance. The bulk of us warm sector. It really is a shit setup for 90% of us with string of surface lows in the east, and the canadian high well to the west, trailing behind the precip. Back to worrying about the UL height tendency over the east coast with a flexing WAR. Pretty cool how you see almost no trend at ACY's longitude but at the cape, heights have shifted 300 miles north in 42 hrs of model runs.

GFS op the most bullish on the clippah is also trending drier with the other guidance. 2 ongoing trends- ticks south and larger shifts down in qpf overall. Boston does okay this run bc it’s the IVT, but we won’t know where that sets up until it’s actually happening.

Looks more like a clipper redeveloper. Weak, late and more north than we want though.There’s a qpf min showing up across guidance where most of us live. Guidance trending drier. The initial surface reflection hits upstate NY and VT but then redevelops southeast of Portland. The secondary works for Maine not really anyone else outside the narrow IVT potential (good luck on that). Forget temps, 935mb low near Greenland ain’t gonna give this little critter the wave space to do much of anything east of CT river.

Zzzzzzzzzzz

Says the guy who moved up here from DC

Last week was worse with the wind. I think this week will fall to previous in real feel. We’ll get the lower lows at night but daytime real feel will be warmer.

Logan bottomed out at 13F. Weak sauce.

We’re getting soft up here. deep winter is a 5” pack and single digit lows on 1/20.