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Everything posted by jbenedet
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Gonna be interesting. We’ve had seasonal cold and many have lost that +3F that shows up in our background state in situation just like this. It’s antecedent warmth. And the models are back to being too cold already. Check out obs right now. I don’t trust the GFS thermals at all right now. It’s gonna tick warmer along the coast. I’m also not seeing why the SLP can’t run over SE MA given the orientation of the BZ.
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The problem with Monday is the ensembles are showing an open frontal wave, fast flow with North/south orientation. It's mid January so there will be a stripe of 1-6" snow somewhere (my guess is far interior) but this is a shit event by our climate standards, verbatim.
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You’re gonna want to be west of the CT river for these, or up at Winne latitude in the east. Plenty of room to cut per the ensembles. I’m expecting rain imby.
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The ensembles are AN for this week and considerably once north of the pike.
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Yea it’s been a bad stretch due to warmth; not lack of precip. What’s kinda crazy though is if you go back to 2015 it’s pretty damn close to your climate average, despite this stretch. I think we’re missing dry years and this looks like the first in a while…
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We have been precip rich many years in a row. I think the fact that this hasn’t translated into >> avg snowfall is the big story that doesn’t quite get the attention because our 10 year average is still pretty consistent with our climate…but if we start mixing in those drier years you’re really gonna see the affects of a slightly warmer winter climate on the long term snowfall averages… To maintain our averages we have to snow when the precip is available because it can be woefully dry some years.…this may be one.
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The trailing shortwave out of Alberta is a serious issue apparently… This system keeps trending stronger with time and that is dampening the lead wave northern stream interaction. I underestimated this. At least it adds clarity to some of the model chaos we’ve seen recently; being that this wave is emerging from such a data sparse region.
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Kinda funny how we had pages and pages for shitta clippa's but now the most snow starved areas of the subforum are poo-pooing a 980 mb low just SE of the BM inside day 5. No, it ain't great but it's the best opportunity many have seen in a while down there...Not to mention zero p-type issues. Gee, when's the last time you guys saw an event like that?!