jbenedet

“Pattern shift….” Careful what you wish for. There’s some naive optimism in seeing less mid level troughiness on the west coast but this is not without losing cold anoms in Canada. After first few days of January risk is tilted warm, even in the northeast. There’s some indications also, that the MJO makes a pass to 4/5/6 which are all warm phases for Jan. Pattern looks like trash around hr240 on the ensembles. Deluded to be getting excited for big snow from day 9ish on..

January 6th system is warm. CONUS and Canada cooked. It will want to warm sector where most of us live. You’re making a bad bet on hoping for this to turn to a big snowstorm.

The HRRR is way too cold vs all guidance, tonight. No reason to buy that with the clouds moving in after sunset and torching above the surface starting by midnight.

Freezing is a warming process. Temps will spike quickly to 32 everywhere except the valleys of NNE.

Zzzzzzz

Zzzzzzz

Looks good. Liking the 0.25 contour cutting through DAW. Another case where Rochester has a lot more icing risk than my hood just 10 miles SE. I could see DAW getting 0.25” but my backyard getting less than 0.1”. We’ve had a number of events with very favorable atmospheric icing conditions but a degree or less saves us from disaster. Not the case just 5 miles to my northwest…

I think the sig icing risk is confined to the valleys of NNE. Atmosphere is warm just above the surface…

Thought this was too interesting not to post. Never would have guessed Maine and NH top the list vs points out in the pacific north west. New England pride on this one —for me anyway. https://www.islands.com/2055872/america-most-forested-state-east-coast-gem-atlantic-views/

There was no “tick-tick” north on the GEFS or EPS. Noise on the GFS op. The -NAO block is intensifying so i don’t see a surprise last minute jump north with this. 5-10” storm for NYC metro. Models have been locked.

Yea that is the way. What a tough forecast for PWM… 8” is a good forecast though, all things considered…

I’m not expecting more than 0.2” LE from this. 4-6” range here is shtoooopid.

yea my mistake. Thanks. I thought you were taking a break from here? Family time cancel?

GFS radar output is like snizzle/light snow varying intensity for 6 hours. That’s it for my hood.

Very difficult forecast for PWM. There’s going to be a very narrow area 6”+ amounts with this..

Hope ya’ll checking the progged radar output on the 12z GFS.

Too low in midcoast Maine to Portland. 6z EPS had 1” qpf. There will be a over a foot locally there. Also think this is too high over here. This map appears as more of an uncertainty cast as to where the band sets up… The band will be about 100 miles wide; go with 2” outside of that and call it a day.

Yea not talking about that. Talking about later…

The shit streak surprise in SNE tells me expect some forcing to be robbed with the part two “lead” of the clippah.

Better off taking the under 10:1 on ratios. I also don’t see how I eek out 0.25” qpf here but all the guidance showing it… On ratios - the risks are not BLtemp related but lift, weak snow growth, and scattered light precip. None of this bodes well to stack. 7:1 probably better hedge… Unless you get into the IVT this should be the story in eastern New England sans Maine and the far interior of NH.

Virga she wrote… Virga sheeeeeee wrote.

This still looks more like a late blooming miller B to me. Two maxes. One in far western sections before the transfer and the second in mid coast- down east Maine, + (maybe the cape). There will be a min in between that transfer as clipper fizzles. Think less norlun, more miller B ish type evolution.

lol “storm”. Yea go run with that to your friends. Tell them about the incoming storm. Moose fart is more like it.

There’s a late blooming miller b type distribution of qpf showing up on the ensemble guidance. That’s likely how this evolves… A local max at points west of CT river, and then points east in Maine with the weak/late redevelopment. Very weak system overall.

The EPS and GEFS are nothing like the ops. All kinds of red flags on the 6z euro with a 1007 mb low near PWM on the 6z EPS and weaker from the prior run. This is a weak low surrounded by surface highs, with no opportunity to amplify with the mid level flow compressing out of southeast Canada. Shrediola.