jbenedet

Every day so far this week has registered +1/+2 AN. Today will be another one of those. Maybe a shot of +3. The short term operational guidance cold bias seems to subtly worsen. Tomorrow we +10.

Wind and clouds saved us from a hard freeze with duration. When I saw the clear night sky around midnight last night really thought a hard freeze was in order. The min obs for below freezing temps across the seacoast happened for an hour or less…

Beautiful fall day anywhere in SNE where sun is sustaining 60 in view

Get off your computer and go outside

Not real until @CoastalWxstarts saying it’s “bad ASOS”

Clouds gonna save many of us a freeze threat tonight before warmup.

55/32 Canadian airmass.

Another average high behind the “cold”front

At some point, outside the far interior, ya’ll will be looking at November as a shortening of mud season vs a snow potential month.

Gotta love how those sub freezing 850s can’t hold even with Canadian airmass

Heats been off all day; night included and it’s 69 inside. And that’s with partly sunnny skies.

I shouldn’t have to explain this but conservatively shade vs non shade is about -10/+10 in terms of real temperature. That’s point 1 point 2 is key — this matters in how many south facing windows you have, but if you maximize that, the heat captured is incredible as the lower angle is directed into the core of the house rather than to the roof as in summer. This affect is not well correlated to atmospheric temperatures… Next time you go into your full-sun exposed car, and it’s 30-40 outside take note how it’s 65+ in your car. That heat is captured and not irradiated back. Same as your home. If you’re paying attention, these are basic physical processes at work and intuitive.

If you bought a house with climo in mind, as you should have, all your trees shading the southern sky are no longer shading. It’s a huge boost to your home’s temperature. If the sun is out then heat is off. Overnight of course is when it clicks on but this is also when the thermostat should be turned way down.

Our Novembers have been the best weather month vs climo going back at least 10 years now. And this November is already prepped to continue that awesome trend.

Looks like as mid latitudes go, the northern gulf of Maine, bay of fundy and Gulf of St Lawrence are running the warmest SST anomalies across the globe.

Left the house this morning with winter hat and the warm boots for the usual dog walk.Dressed way too warmly. Gorgeous morning.

We have entered now —The time of the year when heating bills can stay flat while climo gets a lot colder thanks to the leaves being all down and more direct sun on the house and yard. Lasts through about turkey day….

Biggest rain in 6 months here.

Warm/wet Cold/dry

Torch incoming next week. Confirmed.

Lewiston ME? Isn’t your average low 32 already?

The teleconnections shift to warm phases beginning next week and it looks to have duration. Let’s take it through thanksgiving.

All this talk of freezing; not sure what that is. Roses still budding here…Grass hasn’t been greener.

This is actually heartbreaking. The track eluding guidance initially likely put in some false hope of a near miss “miracle”

The trend on the GEFS has been to a much more amplified system with cross stream interaction, albeit with incomplete phasing. Completely lost the progressive look from early yesterday. Also back to a negative tilt over the SE US. GEFS/GFS is in line with other guidance but def hasn’t been leading.