jbenedet
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Everything posted by jbenedet
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We've had 8 years of AGW, though. I'm half-kidding on this topic.
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Yea it’s warm, but take up those progged surface temps with this look, Saturday and Sunday. Low 50’s make more sense across SNE away from the immediate shore. …Heavy clouds and all, this is a furnace that’s going to take the climo corrections to the woodshed. Won’t see it in guidance, ever, either—we’ll just wake up to it.
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That’s a powder keg of UL forcing for Florida/GA. Wow. only 96 hours out, too
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Where is the sarc tag on this.
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That’s a cutter on the 18/19th. Maybe a “where no one lives special” @Damage In Tolland will surely warn of impending doom whatever it is. The following day, branches down and puddles galore. Oh the horror. Happy tracking stick season.
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DAW: 45/45 ”behind the cold front”
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Tropical airmass getting ingested into this system from the tropical pacific.
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That NAM run was drunk.
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Guidance way too cold at this hr; 47/47 at PSM as of 8:55 a.m.
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Nah. It’s a background feature due to recurring split flow out west; even when it’s subtle it’s important but easy to overlook.
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The El Niño is already amplifying +NAO conditions and deamplifying -NAO conditions. It’s a mystery to most bc this doesn’t show up in the index.
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It’s safest to take the under on the snow accum side. You’ll have snow falling but storm racing north northeast while ground is warm and temps are in mid to up 30’s. The airmass behind it is seasonal at best. It’s the warmth and associated subtropical jet ahead of it that’s making for the fireworks.
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The warmth today is a pretty big indication of the “wind” aspect of the storm potential tomorrow.
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I’m actually thinking the opposite with this. Kinda like that one time out of 20 where the model guidance is not going to fail for its known biases.
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Areas out of the clouds are going to blow past the progged highs today.
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The subtropical jet is heavily involved in this system, and it’s being “amped” by the El Niño conditions; can trace its origins to the south central Pacific.
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Yea. That’s entertainment we’re getting now, as the snow weenies post those 384 hr+ H5 maps with long wave pattern decently positioned “pattern change!” but North America effin’ torched under the hood.
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At least up here... November is a greater snow producing month than April. December is a greater snow producing month than March. Kind of a big deal if you are striking and fouling through Jan 1. Just probability. You know, mathssss.... I think recent years have us biased into believing we can easily make up lost ground with one MECS+ storm. Those odds are not worth banking on.
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Looking a lot like 2015 to date. Especially given the likely outcome of the big warmup starting today and then inland runner this weekend.
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For the love of god; please punt this shit pattern. Seasonal, overcast and dry/cold rain is depression with the backdrop of short daylight hours. BEER.
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lol on those clown maps from 12z today and earlier. White rain FTL
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No need for a vacation south…? staycation; New England style.
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You got NAM’d
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To be sure, taken together with points east where there wasn’t any surface WAA, the surface winds at DAW have been north/northeasterly for past 8 hours; and latest ob is 39/36. Pretty damn telling; WAA isn’t the problem as much as just limited cold around.
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Clowns are gonna clown. The 12z suite. Yikes.
