jbenedet

So electricity prices went up but…natural gas prices didn’t. In fact it’s one of the only commodities that’s the same price as 20 years ago…It’s very cheap assuming your system is efficient. Also it’s a tough deal when your energy production is lowest when it’s winter and especially when it’s cloudy. That’s when your energy usage is highest, outside of maybe a severe heatwave. Do you have a backup system? My driers are all also nat gas… We are sitting on a ton of nat gas in the US and you greenies are helping that out further by removing future demand… I drive a hybrid, so don’t get at me.

This reminds me of blizzard of 96 but more south/east - due to more confluence over the northeast. I referenced this pattern about a 12 days ago, and it's here...ready to deliver... I think you're in a good spot at this lead time based on latest guidance. So is the inside 95 crew of new england. North of there, yea, odds fall off fast but I'd be watching closely up to the pike.

Anyone have table of seasonal Snowfall totals for a city/town in seacoast NH past 10 years?

No. That was last year and year before. That sucked in seacoast NH. Tons of white rain and mix. Great for you guys. Very touch and go around here. You really have to add +3 to climo to get a good feel on where that pattern still does really well and that’s basically a line just north/west of ASH, DAW and PWM.

Should do PSM. Fawgettabout DAW in winter.

It’s pretty much what you should expect in significant -NAO/-AO pattern which is being clearly telegraphed on guidance now.

So much confluence seeing AN surface temps showing up in eastern NH and Maine now. Without a pack in the region it’s definitely believable. I’ll happily take that over the severe cold and dry I was looking at a few days ago….

It doesn’t get better over the next two weeks— another rainer then all the confluence—-> dry What this is, is a key difference from previous years when caribou really cashed in. The biggest regional difference vs persistence of past 5 years I’d wager. My hope and expectation is this translates to an earlier start to spring. Better weather in later March and early April than in recent years.

Snowfall wise this December vs 2023, was worse for NNE better for SNE. In my hood this year was just as bad as last; though slightly colder. Region wide, generally less warmth but the much smaller pack in the north takes much less +AN to erode…The result is we are in same position as this time last year in terms of snow pack. Thinking many long range forecasters are losing to persistence at this point….

Looks like a few flakes for Boston/southeast. Radar decay look for many in eastern areas.

It’s a 1020 surface “low” pressure The system is also dampening as it traverses our region…. I think a coating will be max in the high population locations.

Stars to align for -15. Well we did it with this. On the solstice no less… https://x.com/NWS_MountHolly/status/1870729535593050436

I don’t reference DAW in winter. I can’t explain that. In summer it hasn’t been far off; it’s much better than me using PSM temps in late spring and summer. I know it still blows your mind but it’s often one of the hottest spots in the region on southwest winds. Even the guidance can pick this up, into York. So there is something else also going on that you physically haven’t been able to explain; just that the ASOS is BS.

Yea one of these patterns where you don’t much latitude because the mid level tracks are suppressed.

Merry Christmas.

The early Jan pattern —I’m seeing a number of synoptic scale parallels to the period which produced the blizzard of 96. Weenies will of course take this and run with it…but so much still has to break right for a similar outcome. Of course timing is everything but main point here is I see SNE, and especially mid Atlantic in best spot for significant snowfalls after the late December warmup.

This isn't accurate. The H500 height anoms are misleading as Canada is very warm. The PNA ridge is too far west, allowing for MP air, vs CP, despite the longwave trough developing in the eastern half of the US. MP in January isn't going to translate to cold for the mid latitudes. I'd agree in march or april, however... I will give you that the torch fades (with time) on latest guidance, but that's also with the highest uncertainty some 320 hours + out.

Really tough forecast for BOS. I see on guidance, especially euro, by afternoon winds switching more easterly and temps jumping >35F.

In terms of snowcover we are trailing behind every year since 2019, except last year. Last year in mid December there were back to back cutters that decimated the snowcover through year end. We have a hostile period incoming about 10 days behind last year's...Will be interesting to see where we are around the 1st...

For Friday night, with the cold so close didn't really anticipate stacking issues but.... Highest pop in the areas with surface temps above freezing. Northeast winds.. but for BOS/ to SE MA, that's right off the GOM which in points northeast is still ~45F....

Tonight has turned to mostly rain even in the interior of NNE.

Another 50+ degree day. really nice in the sun…

Without in situ cold, timing becomes critical. With split flow, timing is especially difficult…odds are great that we miss the big ones. (Jury is out on the 21st for extreme southeast sections) Now the weak open wave storms like tomorrow or the clippers that were rainers for most—that’s the biggest shift that is hardest to anticipate. If these were producing advisory snows in broad areas of SNE we’d be largely normal for the month…So if you’re not factoring a +2-4F in background climate you got screwed. Worse still is you could double down on the lost snow in December and call for a mean reversion in Jan-March which isn’t coming because your snow fell as white rain or just plain rain.

I’m seeing 50 obs at PQI

60F on 12/17 and the pattern hasn't even shit the bed yet. Wiped out a week's worth of BN days with today alone.