jbenedet
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Everything posted by jbenedet
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Lebanon NH at 41/36?! Oof.
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You’re in a good spot, given the elevation and away from coast. But tracking temp misleading with this; dews are stubbornly high at our latitude. CON at 37/37. Lots of white rain; packing and melting on the clown maps, I believe. On the flip side, whatever instability is left, Monday night IVT will likely over-deliver for someone near us though.
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That 6z GFS run with the cutter potential turned bowling ball around day 10 is such a COC tease. I mean, sure if we can project the -2 NAO 9 days out and say that will still be in place; but nothing supports that. Then you look at the GEFS at day 10; surface to H5 and see how much of an illusion that op output is. Sell bowling ball; buy GLC; turned shredded POS in southern Ontario.
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I agree. There has been a clear subtle trend warmer on the GEFS and EPS for the past week of runs in the medium to long range. As you mentioned, too, the Pacific hasn’t woken up yet; and that changes next week. And ultimately when the shift in the pacific is captured in the initial conditions of guidance, the warmth in NA, generally, is going to surprise bigly to the upside.
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That’s pretty damn typical of sig EL Nino years though. Not an “out on a limb” forecast by any stretch but it looks like another have/have not season with much of interior NNE/coldest points of CNE doing quite well (AN snowfall) but persistent p type issues for the rest, BN snowfall.
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Check for me next week
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Welcomed December without a jacket this morning. Newington is already into the mid 40's.
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This looks like dog shit, especially given background conditions. Stop looking for snow and start hoping for minimal pack loss to our friends who have it in the far interior.
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Looks a lot like 2018. Problem for snow lovers, 2018 was a weak El Nino, and November accounted for a sizable chunk of the snowfall. Heading into December with sig El Nino, but less to show for November. Worse still, much less snow, comparatively in our cold source regions in Canada
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Fortune tellers, the lot. Not at all what I'm saying. Not looking at correlations. It is that, IF we had some above average snow accums under our belt already across the CONUS, probabilistically, you "cold and snowier guys" would have something to show for the "uncoupled Nino" conditions, and your seasonal forecasts closer to verifying. Now we move into met winter and sig El Nino conditions await.
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Good luck with this.
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Still not following the logic here. Seeing a weak El Niño atmospheric response to date has allowed El Niño conditions to intensify, and also (obviously) means it just shows up at a later winter date. Unless we capitalized on a snowier than normal November (did not) and December (remains to be seen)—this is a better argument for those calling for warmer/less snowy winter in the CONUS.
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This uncoupling argument, saying it will stay indefinitely uncoupled is weak. It defies the physical equations. The atmosphere *must* respond for the system to rebalance. The longer it is uncoupled the stronger the El Niño will become; and in turn the eventual atmospheric response more extreme. .
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I’ve never seen people spend so much time at something and still be so bad at it. Zero improvement. It’s sad. That’s typically the world’s way of telling you—“do something else”. Listen up.
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It’s gonna be okay guys. Enjoy the nice weather.
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oof to all those who took those 18z Nov 18 runs. Don’t PO the in-laws on Turkey day with shit forecasts guys.
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Seeing is believing ?
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PSM hit 40 this afternoon. -7 for a polar airmASS
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Thanksgiving looks beautiful in SNE. What a beaut.
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Turkey Day turning into DSD in SE locations. Looks nice actually, mid 50's for SNE.
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This map makes a lot more sense. Still too aggressive with the cold in the east
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Yea that’s the guidance consensus. I think it’s about 6-10 hours faster to scour in eastern sections. Surface Winds turn southeasterly pretty damn early and water still in low 50’s. Think it’s most likely that interior CNE follow your timing.
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CPC drunk with this map. The whole thing should be shifted some 750 miles west With regard to SNE, there is one day BN on the 6z GEFS through next weekend, and that’s tomorrow. Tuesday will start cold but end normal to slightly AN for most.
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@ORH_wxmanwas tracking 2 potential snowstorms during this window The GEEFSE just shit on his head
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That’s a great find. Well done.
