jbenedet

I believe somewhere in that 36-39” range but if I had to guess I’m right around 39.

Don’t have exact but I believe a hair below 40”

What a short winter. A coating through December, a dusting through March.

Exactly.

Yea when it's 100+ hrs out. All day. It's not even really a back door, with the surface anoms to the north, basically normal. The question is if we warm sector or not. Not backdoor... No one is selling 70+ in Dover at this point. But I do think 60+ is a better bet than sub 40 and misery mist.

Already by 18z Saturday you have all of the deep cold bottled up towards Hudson bay Canada. This is a battle that the warmth can win for most of us...

GFS coldest but the GEFS now looks a lot warmer than the EPS/Euro…

GEFS vs EPS for this weekend. GEFS showing +NAO and which will be sending canadian cold east to labrador/Newfoundland. It's not fully there on guidance yet, but it's getting there. EPS showing -NAO and CAD into new england. No door, vs back door, respectively. The teles support the GEFS look not the EPS... I'm with the GEFS.

It is, but the pattern for this weekend couldn't be anything less favorable for a back door. There isn't meridional flow out of canada - it's very progressive West to East. I'm feeling good in seacoast NH - but as always someone will get screwed, probably Winne-->north where it gets questionable...

I don’t see the depression, either in GEFS or teles. Torch incoming.

Downslope for the win tomorrow. Modeled 30’s will come in about average highs for tomorrow in seacoast NH

Does it do well in 6-8 hrs direct sun?

Airmasses skunked. The surface was completely unworkable. You needed it to tear open the mid levels; but nothing showed that. Something really dynamic. 970’s in the western GOM and then maybe you get some of what the GFS was showing at ~120hrs.

This storm is a pretty good case study though, to be honest. The surface reflection stayed true and kept almost all on the cold side…yet…warmer and warmer with time.

Dews never cracked below 40 here…

120 hrs of weenie shrinkage. And all that while your surface track stayed favorable; over the cape and into the GOM.

I’m trying to do a solid mix of hardy shrubs/small trees with a carpet of grass in the front. Grass is overrated for many reasons but I also think the fact you lose the green in winter is another big negative. I really enjoy maintaining color in the darkest and coldest periods of winter which is why I’m looking for various shrubs/coniferous small trees to take up a lot of the grass area. Year round Color/hardiness (very low maintenance)/water absorption; has been my ongoing project in the front. You guys have any good recommendations? I’m in an urban setting so deer and varmint threats are non-existent.

61/32. What east winds?

Eh man, I have to say that NAO/-NAO tendencies still seems to stick well through early spring. I’m not sure why…

Deck is stacking up that we are very warm during that timeframe. We’ll see. Still the chaos to work through…

Yes. That window 26-29 aligns with the MJO progression quickly through 6. That dip is likely real but very short lived. I was referencing to the period right after which looks like ++AN. 30th through first week of April.

The GEFS guidance teleconnections continues to reflect +NAO/+AO towards ends of the month. Developing -PNA as well... MJO to phase 7. End of the month to first week in april would end up very warm should this verify.. The ensemble guidance isn't on board yet but something will have to start caving very soon...

49/29 already

Yea, that's my senses as well. You connect other dots related to population flows/migration and it's pretty damning

That's worse than higher error. That's "we don't know" data.