jbenedet

The Wednesday night clippah is looking like rain showers here. Another NNE and CNE event.

Coldologists are killin’ it. Now how do they get promoted to snowologists?

You’re changing the guidance narrative of the past 10 days to fit your opinion. Shocker. The N to BN pattern was very well advertised by guidance and most of us here didn’t bet against it. EPS, GEFS saw it weeks in advance and never lost it; in fact the signal strengthened with time. It’s the storm/snow part that you are after and you’re still missing outside of an advisory clipper.

The GEFS is misaligned with the modeled teleconnections. The -NAO and -AO disappear by first few days of December. The EPS is already picking up on what the GEFS isn’t with sharp shift to + AN by the 10th. I believe this gets pushed forward in time, especially along the coastal plain.

I keep hearing about BN; seacoast NH is already at its average high temp for the day. NWS forecast for the seacoast region looks like normal temps to close out November.

I’m talking the lakes region.

Pretty remarkable short term trend especially with such weak ridging in place off the east coast.

Only interest in this event locally is how warm PSM can get on ENE winds off the 50 degree gulf of Maine…

One of the few places where a significantly warmer regional climate translates to a lot more annual snowfall. I don’t think a lot of the people who moved to that area recently are ready for that though. Snow cover so high that blocks out your windows for weeks on end gets old. You really gotta winterize your home and mind to stay positive through that.

Zzzzzz

Yea, "closer". But what the hell is going on with these algorithms..? You look at the run and there's not 1 hour of modeled snowfall output for DAW...Similar for N ORH and yet somehow even the depth change shows 4" otg... SMH

The GFS op is the only model that develops a surface high in eastern canada for turkey day. Even the 6Z GEFS calls BS..

I see a string of surface lows in southeastern Canada.... This is a crap setup guys...

EPS ftw... AN streak continues...

This window is quickly turning to "normal" for most. From Boston to Portland, I'd bank on it...

I get what @bluewaveis saying to a large degree, at least what it means for the northeast US. The bulk of the cold is dumping into the southeast US from the mountain west…The northeast will be seeing winds out of the west/wsw, and thousands of miles of mid latitude travel for the arctic airmass to moderate…Yes the overall atmosphere will be BN (cold) but this is not a situation that maximizes the surface cold potential in the densely populated areas of the northeast; quite the opposite when soil temps and SST’s are warm and snowpack to the west and north will be well below normal. For example, I believe DC has a much colder stretch relative to norms than Boston, incoming... Boston and Portland ME could end up pretty close to normal during this stretch.

Admittedly from just an observational standpoint here but a lot of what I’m seeing looks like previous years, with best wintry patterns in place in late fall… Relative to last early December, there was even a similar significant cold shot—as advertised for day 10ish—that originated in the mountain west and covered most of the CONUS for ~5 days. I’m also noticing significant -NAO’s/-AO’s with regularity; our problem —snowfall wise— is this has flipped in late December to February time frame to predominately +NAO/+AO. The lack of snowpack in New England and eastern Canada also tracking similarly…. We’ll see if past is prologue…

Last night was odd in how the temperature kept rising on gusty northeast winds, up to 49 at PSM around 7z this morning.

For eastern areas, the much bigger event is Friday night/Saturday morning, but probably going to be a precip “hole” in Central NE. Some, near the Connecticut river will be on the margin of both systems, and won’t get much precip at all…

Eating the cats, eating the dogs here.

Saturday 970's in the gulf of maine, with CCB overhead but temps advecting from Ontario, which is in the mid to upper 30's.

This storm was the great opportunity missed because of late Nov climate and antecedent warmth. This was the storm. This isn’t your table setter or pattern changer; it’s the one to cash in on. And we missed it.

I agree. Studies focused in/around the UK and Ireland makes a lot more sense at this stage, vs Florida...

@bluewave You really don't see the regional off-shoots (Western/Eastern Maine coastal current) of the labrador current in the current SST profile. It seems like there's the Nova Scotia current, but relatively warm, and mostly confined to Cape Breton Island area....Not seeing it extend much into the GOM at all...

I've been tracking this mostly in our backyard for how the Labrador current is responding. Does anyone have good historical data for SST's around NS, Cape Breton island and Downeast Maine? I'm still seeing SST's 49-50F in this area, which seems exceedingly warm... What's most odd to me is you don't see any clear temperature footprint of the labrador current as SST's much further south off the coast of NH and MA are in the low 50's...Usually you see a steep drop off in SST's around mid coast ME...