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jbenedet

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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    Thought this was pretty interesting. Would be much less so if not for the GFS being biased well east already… To be sure, not looking at Sandy and its forecast as a verbatim but an analog. That’s all. Right now the H5 output consensus is for east of Sandy, but I’m not discounting a hook back to eastern New England… Of course will have to monitor closely especially given the reduction in real time data, as noted above.
  2. jbenedet
    Min 39
  3. jbenedet
    Nothing is “quick” / fast flow as in the teleconnections at the end of the month. This seems like a hiccup in the recent op runs advertising this. There’s a deeply -AO incoming coupled with +PNA and further -NAO conditions. I’m expecting much more northern stream interaction; arctic involvement. When we start seeing snow showing up in guidance for next week in PA and western upstate NY, we’re getting close to the actual outcome…
  4. jbenedet
    Well done by the NHC; not even marginally hedging their forecast with the GFS output over the past few days.
  5. jbenedet
    SST’s are cookin’ in gulf of St Lawrence and bay of Fundy. Can’t wait for the rippin’ northeast winds, and white rain obs…
  6. jbenedet
    GWDLT 41/39 for a low here…
  7. jbenedet
    The NHC also isn’t biting on the quick escape east track for Melissa. Right now, if Melissa misses it appears consensus is because of a poor phasing; and not the GFS scenario.
  8. jbenedet
    The 6z GEFS was a pretty sizable shift towards the EPS with higher mid level heights over the western Atlantic .
  9. jbenedet
    Great drink here today. 1” in view…
  10. jbenedet
    Lawns and shrubs looking best they have all year. Another recurring theme…will see this through thanksgiving.
  11. jbenedet
    Warm/wet cool/dry Familiar….
  12. jbenedet
    On the cross sound ferry into New London. Don’t even need a sweatshirt on the top deck. Awesome out.
  13. jbenedet
    Something else that’s often lost on these hybrids is that the magnitude of impacts are often dictated by the strength of the surface high; not the min SLP. The surface high has been very gradually strengthening with time on guidance.
  14. jbenedet
    The current display off the coast of Florida is impressive. Really wouldn’t think this amounts to a 1000mb low over OBX. I think it doesn’t fit the calendar wrt hurricane season. It’s not the bet to make—that this ends up much stronger than guidance consensus—but it’s something to watch closely.
  15. jbenedet
    Like clockwork our early fall frost in line with climo only to see the +20 anoms return in second half of fall.
  16. jbenedet
    I’m also at a local max elevation in the downtown area so that may be playing an important role as well. Top of a “hill” as subtle as it may be. Important on mornings like this…
  17. jbenedet
    This is a really fake cold. I’m not seeing much at all evidence of frost but on the cars. The air feels frost worthy however. It’s almost as though it only registered freezing because of a complete stillness of the air. Even slightest mixing, and we would be well above. The immediate ground surfaces and shrubs appear to have too much residual heat from the recent rain and 80 degree temps to affect.
  18. jbenedet
    There is also an interaction with TC Jerry to watch. Very dynamic setup overall. Nice break from the boredom.
  19. jbenedet
    GFS is warm core. With origins in northern Bahamas in the 7th inning of hurricane season—not a surprise. Baseline expectation should be sub tropical type system forming.
  20. jbenedet
    70/60 Just walked the dog with t-shirt shorts and sandals.
  21. jbenedet
    This is an overall odd distribution on a line CON on north. No clouds anywhere in the region. I mean, not only are the + anomalies the greatest but the temps are also warmest… Makes me think that leaf drop and/or completely dead leaves still on the trees on points north vs points south maximized the atmospheric potential by getting the most out of ISR through both less shade and evapotranspiration affects.
  22. jbenedet
    My climo average temps are off by about -5. I know that whimsical “assumption” gonna take a bunch of scrutiny but it’s a simple enough exercise to work through… If I made that change for the year, the distribution of normal, AN, and BN days and the magnitude of the anomalies I believe would better fit today’s climo.
  23. jbenedet
    Coastal storm showing up across guidance next weekend.
  24. jbenedet
    Turns out that I don’t think chipmunks/raccoons are the problem I thought they were. They were actually helping my new grass. They were digging small holes in my lawn, yes, but to go after a more serious new-lawn pest: slugs. Didn’t make this connection until yesterday when I noticed a few slugs in my grass….
  25. jbenedet
    Hit 84 today. +19 No problem.
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