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jbenedet

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    Really good look with this storm at this hour and latest trends. I also don’t think the qpf amounts are done moving higher. Watching for a slowing trend…
  2. jbenedet
    SNE looks like sweet spot for this. I also think NYC comes back with much less mixing…
  3. jbenedet
    Actually no. If you’ve been paying attention SNE outside the immediate coast has been a sweet spot. Now I think the immediate coast is also in a great spot.
  4. jbenedet
    This now has the look of a classic DC to Boston MECS. I do think the megalopolis is all in game for 12”+
  5. jbenedet
    I think it’s done. I think it’s more likely to tick south than north from here.
  6. jbenedet
    That read with clear - NAO says “MJO 8” Or at least a lot more 8 than 7…to put it crudely… Interesting…
  7. jbenedet
    Do you have a good reference for NAO data? I’m thinking that’s the only way to have a good idea on which way this will register 7/8…
  8. jbenedet
    Not financial advice but… Check out Chevron $CVX Thank me later.
  9. jbenedet
    Anyone have a good NAO dataset they could share? Something more than the ncep teleconnection forecast.
  10. jbenedet
    Not done gon’ north.
  11. jbenedet
    The 6z AI GFS has completely lost the mid level -height anoms in the east now. Also the long wave ridge axis is like 300 miles west of Washington state now..
  12. jbenedet
    To me the cold is dumping increasingly in the central conus and much less so in the east. The -AO is legit. That will also give fuel to the primary to hold on longer “bend back” than latest guidance.
  13. jbenedet
    It’s not done.
  14. jbenedet
    Yea agree that this willl be juicier in that regard The antecedent airmass is also warming…albeit from a very cold to cold in the east. Need to watch it closely… But the typical areas that can’t rely on just the antecedent airmass to stay all snow need to worry about a lot of mixing already. Cape/islands, coastal RI and CT.
  15. jbenedet
    That Canadian high position though…
  16. jbenedet
    GEFS is like 4 runs away from saying “what PV?”
  17. jbenedet
    100 hours to go…
  18. jbenedet
    This is wonky. The dual surface lows.. What I’m thinking is more that the lead wave fizzles and the trailing surface reflection is our main storm up here… An how that would change the mid level evolution if that lead wave is dampened completely.
  19. jbenedet
    There is sooo much long wave spacing out west to get this further north. That ridge axis out west keeps inching west. It’s basically in general position where we open up inland runner risk…
  20. jbenedet
    Tbh the mid level support isn’t there to anchor the high. Given the intensity of the trailing shortwave it’s not much to see it slide east and become that giant surface high that merges with the WAR that we’ve seen happen so many times before…. The Canadian surface high kicking east like 24 hours sooner is basically the only thing that needs to change to take on a high amplitude MJO phase 7 look which we will be in at go time… Not much given still 100 hours out.
  21. jbenedet
    She ain’t done going north. Question is, how far she go…
  22. jbenedet
    I know, I know it’s just the CMC But. it looks a lot like the trending in the respected EPS… Same behavior… very similar look Look less at the SLP and more at the long wave features….
  23. jbenedet
    The resolving of long wave features that the EPS and GEFS typically can reliably provide inside 10 days was absent. That was the rug pull. In just 6 runs inside 6 days the EPS is looking completely different in synoptic evolution. The lead wave is a side show. Everything moving to the trailing shortwave for us in the east.
  24. jbenedet
    Wrong take. Anyway….I said my piece. We watch 12z
  25. jbenedet
    EC AIFS definitely saying balance is toward warmer solution in the east from here. Just seeing the low level cold anoms increase in the central CONUS and greatly relative to the east coast is pretty telling.
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