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jbenedet

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. -NAO vibes My thinking remains that this aspect will improve from here on out given the forecasted teleconnections. But. Will it be enough to outweigh the interference from the trailing shortwave. That’s the main limiting factor in my view… A few days ago I thought guidance would be in a better position at this juncture considering these factors, so I have to take ceiling way down right now outside of the cape.
  2. The real problem is the trailing clippah which is dampening - “kicker” I don’t see any other issues. That’s the problem.
  3. Yea I agree with this. More likely than not given the mid level proximity. i also agree this is an “advisory level something” but disappointing given the potential.
  4. Amazing people are hating on this look. Mid level fun for 90% This is more powerful than the EC-AIFS at this lead time. Don’t get it twisted
  5. Could be better But.. I’m seeing the risk is much greater that it moves north from that depiction, given the current forecast progression of MJO and -NAO.
  6. lol. Wrt where most of us live— PWM, BOS, NY, Philly This is about as locked and loaded as you can get at this lead time. I found zero things to criticize 5 days out. Teles, GEFS and EPS guidance are frickin awesome. And the persistence/side of things is great as well…
  7. I didn’t measure to be honest. Drifts everywhere. But there was already a ton of snow out there last night. Easily 18” yesterday around 10 pm. I definitely had some coastal front enhancement here.
  8. First time I am able to fully appreciate the insulation significance of a deep pack. The severe persistent cold and the “before this storm” and after really made the affect apparent. The duration of the cold also has made it worthwhile for a little extra effort to stack in the cold spots. Using a lot less heat makes this all a lot more enjoyable.
  9. 2-4” is a good bet in eastern sections, regionally. More in east MA where I’d go 3-6” With -NAO and strong mid level vort never discount these little events. They surprise I’d get it if BL temps were marginal but it’s Alaska out there…
  10. Yea there’s also a developing inverted trough signature on the latest nam. Eastern MA, NH and Maine focused..
  11. There’s beneath the radar snow falling again now. Albeit light. Steady flurry intensity but subtly increasing.
  12. Yea I’m not on the “looks like crap” wagon with this. the mid level vort moving through is intense and seeing the filling in, broadly out west looks like the expansiveness and intensity will exceed some of the latest guidance. Looks like new Jersey to Maine
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