jbenedet

Heats been off all day; night included and it’s 69 inside. And that’s with partly sunnny skies.

I shouldn’t have to explain this but conservatively shade vs non shade is about -10/+10 in terms of real temperature. That’s point 1 point 2 is key — this matters in how many south facing windows you have, but if you maximize that, the heat captured is incredible as the lower angle is directed into the core of the house rather than to the roof as in summer. This affect is not well correlated to atmospheric temperatures… Next time you go into your full-sun exposed car, and it’s 30-40 outside take note how it’s 65+ in your car. That heat is captured and not irradiated back. Same as your home. If you’re paying attention, these are basic physical processes at work and intuitive.

If you bought a house with climo in mind, as you should have, all your trees shading the southern sky are no longer shading. It’s a huge boost to your home’s temperature. If the sun is out then heat is off. Overnight of course is when it clicks on but this is also when the thermostat should be turned way down.

Our Novembers have been the best weather month vs climo going back at least 10 years now. And this November is already prepped to continue that awesome trend.

Looks like as mid latitudes go, the northern gulf of Maine, bay of fundy and Gulf of St Lawrence are running the warmest SST anomalies across the globe.

Left the house this morning with winter hat and the warm boots for the usual dog walk.Dressed way too warmly. Gorgeous morning.

We have entered now —The time of the year when heating bills can stay flat while climo gets a lot colder thanks to the leaves being all down and more direct sun on the house and yard. Lasts through about turkey day….

Biggest rain in 6 months here.

Warm/wet Cold/dry

Torch incoming next week. Confirmed.

Lewiston ME? Isn’t your average low 32 already?

The teleconnections shift to warm phases beginning next week and it looks to have duration. Let’s take it through thanksgiving.

All this talk of freezing; not sure what that is. Roses still budding here…Grass hasn’t been greener.

This is actually heartbreaking. The track eluding guidance initially likely put in some false hope of a near miss “miracle”

The trend on the GEFS has been to a much more amplified system with cross stream interaction, albeit with incomplete phasing. Completely lost the progressive look from early yesterday. Also back to a negative tilt over the SE US. GEFS/GFS is in line with other guidance but def hasn’t been leading.

Another day another shower. The past 2 weeks has been a complete flip from the drought conditions in terms of rain chances.

Still a ton of run to run changes happening across guidance inside 3 days out on the large scale mid level features.

Agreed as I’m learning. Mines about 20 years old as I can tell from its about 30 ft size. Beautiful canopy that can expand out broadly as it can reach up to 100 ft high. I think the key is having it properly placed. Mine happens to be in a good spot where the falling walnuts are not a hazard. The walnuts produce juglone which nourishes the tree but is toxic to many competing plants. It’s also in a good spot on that front, as it’s in an area where neither me nor my neighbors want growth or meticulous landscaping. It’s all good at minimizing weed growth.

The 6z EPS definitely has a look that midcoast to downeast Maine need to watch for more than subtle/indirect impacts from Melissa.

So turns out I have a black walnut tree on the southern edge of my property. Perfectly placed to filter out the worst of the afternoon summer sun. It’s a beautiful tree, generally. Problem is, in the fall for approx 1 month it produces the food for just about every chipmunk and squirrel within a one mile radius. I have decided to put up with it and let nature take its course, outside of me discarding the old walnuts which land on my property, and spray foaming the areas these critters make for homes, I’m letting them be. Saw a large red tail hawk hanging out three houses down on the powerline during this morning’s dog walk, gazing at my tree…. So the medium to long term game is winning… I’m all for this route even with the short term sacrifices, and very pleased that the ecosystem is healthy enough around me to make it a possible homeowner strategy.

Running out of time for big changes but for a big impact out of Melissa in our region need to see the shortwave out of western Canada hookup with the low over the southeast around this hour. A trend to see the former speed up and the latter slow down, must persist from here on out. It’s not unusual in significant-NAO regimes for this to occur but the current model consensus gives it very low odds. We watch.

BN patterns like this which yield near normal temps just brings home how much more needs to go right for accumulating snow chances. Also that these persistent Fall -NAO regimes help to torch our cold source regions in eastern Canada as we move into winter…Hudson Bay, Bay of Fundy, Gulf of St Lawrence….

Another track with Bermuda in the crosshairs. Still a ways out but losing track of how many times Bermuda has been under significant threat of direct hits from canes past 3 tropical seasons.

Thought this was pretty interesting. Would be much less so if not for the GFS being biased well east already… To be sure, not looking at Sandy and its forecast as a verbatim but an analog. That’s all. Right now the H5 output consensus is for east of Sandy, but I’m not discounting a hook back to eastern New England… Of course will have to monitor closely especially given the reduction in real time data, as noted above.

Min 39