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jbenedet

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    -NAO vibes My thinking remains that this aspect will improve from here on out given the forecasted teleconnections. But. Will it be enough to outweigh the interference from the trailing shortwave. That’s the main limiting factor in my view… A few days ago I thought guidance would be in a better position at this juncture considering these factors, so I have to take ceiling way down right now outside of the cape.
  2. jbenedet
    The real problem is the trailing clippah which is dampening - “kicker” I don’t see any other issues. That’s the problem.
  3. jbenedet
    Yea I agree with this. More likely than not given the mid level proximity. i also agree this is an “advisory level something” but disappointing given the potential.
  4. jbenedet
    Amazing people are hating on this look. Mid level fun for 90% This is more powerful than the EC-AIFS at this lead time. Don’t get it twisted
  5. jbenedet
    There is a shit ton of snow around downtown Dover right now.
  6. jbenedet
    Awesome. So much for the Meh-teorologists
  7. jbenedet
    Could be better But.. I’m seeing the risk is much greater that it moves north from that depiction, given the current forecast progression of MJO and -NAO.
  8. jbenedet
    lol. Wrt where most of us live— PWM, BOS, NY, Philly This is about as locked and loaded as you can get at this lead time. I found zero things to criticize 5 days out. Teles, GEFS and EPS guidance are frickin awesome. And the persistence/side of things is great as well…
  9. jbenedet
    Definitely around 2 ft in Dover. Wintah wondahland
  10. jbenedet
    I’m gonna tack on 5” today?
  11. jbenedet
    The models flopped last minute. Had the right idea last night then lost it. Some knew
  12. jbenedet
    I have added at least 3” here today. And currently best growth and rates of the day…
  13. jbenedet
    FTL?
  14. jbenedet
    Looks like IVT setting up overhead, back to VT..
  15. jbenedet
    I didn’t measure to be honest. Drifts everywhere. But there was already a ton of snow out there last night. Easily 18” yesterday around 10 pm. I definitely had some coastal front enhancement here.
  16. jbenedet
    First time I am able to fully appreciate the insulation significance of a deep pack. The severe persistent cold and the “before this storm” and after really made the affect apparent. The duration of the cold also has made it worthwhile for a little extra effort to stack in the cold spots. Using a lot less heat makes this all a lot more enjoyable.
  17. jbenedet
    Already picking up to moderate..
  18. jbenedet
    Back into light snow now
  19. jbenedet
    Pretty cool seeing the radar juice up around Albany, collocated with the 850 mb fgen
  20. jbenedet
    2-4” is a good bet in eastern sections, regionally. More in east MA where I’d go 3-6” With -NAO and strong mid level vort never discount these little events. They surprise I’d get it if BL temps were marginal but it’s Alaska out there…
  21. jbenedet
    Yea there’s also a developing inverted trough signature on the latest nam. Eastern MA, NH and Maine focused..
  22. jbenedet
    There’s beneath the radar snow falling again now. Albeit light. Steady flurry intensity but subtly increasing.
  23. jbenedet
    There’s 850mb and 700mb frontogenesis forcing swinging through NY state.
  24. jbenedet
    Yea I’m not on the “looks like crap” wagon with this. the mid level vort moving through is intense and seeing the filling in, broadly out west looks like the expansiveness and intensity will exceed some of the latest guidance. Looks like new Jersey to Maine
  25. jbenedet
    Funny you said that. I was just thinking. yea I think this one will do it.
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