jbenedet
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Everything posted by jbenedet
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If you want to make a cogent background warming argument it’s that we have BN persistence in the northeast but N to AN tendency. -
Nah. Tuesday/wed is part of the banner. Wall to wall sun is too much of a good thing. Need the rain to keep the landscape happy and the water bills in check.
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Is this for Jersey or New England?
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The pattern from the winter is still in place, with long wave troughiness continuing in the northeast and frequent Canadian airmasses. Completely different from last year. We sent all the torch the Western Europe. Persistence ftw. This breaks once the fall EL Nino forcing kicks into high gear.
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The WPC qpf output is a lot more robust for seacoast NH than model guidance consensus. The storms developing near Rochester NY hold together and swing through this afternoon.
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MCS type look down this way. They tend to hold on longer than guidance and are poorly modeled (trajectory, intensity) at very short lead times if they get going. Kind of a mind of its own type deal… Would expect a big fizzle here on the seacoast but with northerly flow, anticipating at least some hefty downpours, which would be nice—could use the rain.
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Apples and oranges. Dews… We know this. Miami is +7 to that temp in terms of real feel, heat index, while Denver is -5. So it’s really like 85 Denver, 97 Miami. Yea that checks out….
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I think a big missed effect of these much higher dews and in turn much higher night time temps is to increase SST’s a lot faster than one would expect… We get it though—without much thought— but only when this is observed in our back yard pool temp…
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71 SST up here before the 4th is just not a thing. Pretty wild. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44098
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I planted Texas grass seed in my full sun spots for a reason…
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Not exactly— there’s definitely indication that the line bends southeast. Down to Boston in the mix for severe along the coast.
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Beats the hell outta watering. Love this.
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I’m taking the severe risk today legitimately; seems we have all the general players positioned very well. Pretty textbook. Just need to have a good sky clearing after this current round of downpours.
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Here in the seacoast region of NH I’ve learned to take a negative bias for surface based forcing and a significant positive bias for mid level forcing. It didn’t come easy—many beatings—thanks to model guidance hoodwinking on days the sensible weather feels primed for severe…
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985 mb near Montreal is pretty damn impressive for mid June climo
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I will shoot rounds into the sky if this happens again here.
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63F for SST’s off coast of NH https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44098 For the date that’s normal for south shore Long Island…
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UNH buoy east of NH already up to 63 degrees…. That’s a month ahead of schedule… https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=44098
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This heat always surprises me in terms of how little is needed to make it happen.
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Yea our June’s have been so incredibly warm recently that our collective bias is +5
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I’m expecting an overperform today. The mid level forcing tends to meet or exceed for June. Yesterday with the prevailing low level easterly fetch and overcast was a big sell for rain. Not a repeat. Two completely different setups. More early sun too. Fitting the persistence pattern today with the mid level low swinging through.
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Guidance way off on the timing of this. Much faster than progged. Gonna be raining here by 20z tonight and out by 10z tomorrow.
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70/58
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Already feeling like shorts.
