jbenedet

That MJO phase 7 doesn’t look like it’s happening beyond a blip. Synoptically it’s not long enough for the pattern to conform… I think we go back in the freezer and phase 8 and it’s wagons south for the big snows… Colder and Drier with latitude… La Niña and the calendar reigns… Not happy to report but that’s how it looks now. Maybe a great period for heavy snowfall in the most southern sections of the forum. If you’re looking for big snow you want to be in the mid Atlantic during last 10 days of Jan. This is completely different than my three-day-ago thoughts…but oh well.

The GEFS still in disagreement but looking across guidance it’s likely the one that’s wrong. The bulk of guidance has an MJO phase 8 look to it with significant cold anomalies across NA during the last 10 days of Jan. If that’s the case it looks largely like a repeat of December to first week of Jan pattern for my area…Not a fan…. Cold and dry here… Winter Storm tracks focused on the mid Atlantic. That would also fit the mold of La Niña…

Regarding northeast — it’s the first time all season we are below last year’s snow coverage and by a lot.

Snow is gone here. Only the piles. And the piles outside of the parking lots will be gone tomorrow.

Not best company but 12z CMC also has similar evolution. This threat is legit.

The EC-AIFS is actually on board with this one. I think Boston to SE MA still very much should watch for heaviest snowfall of the season. A very low bar(I know)… 12z GFS is super amped but at least evolution is similar. This is key difference from the 16th where GFS had no other support at similar lead time.

We tried to tell em about the 18th. Here we are. Very interesting indeed. we watch closely

Yea this was a complete flip. We had cold that overperformed to that date—temps consistently below forecast. It’s been the opposite since…

40/34 We torch since the 6th scattered snow cover gone today.

The 18z GFS ain’t happenin’. wagons north.

Can’t wait for MJO phase 7 to cook these weenies. Day 10 won’t be a mid Atlantic story. It’s up here. The GEFS and EPS calling absolute BS on that gradient being so far south. GTFO

You do realize you could run it through day 10 and see the same pattern? Or you could just run it every cycle and see the same gradient… This is an important signal

Since the 7th— feels and looks like a shift back to 2025 persistence Temps back to over-performing. It’s a subtle but very important change.

We gradient

Mood snows end for me with the holidays. Go big or let’s stay AN.

Zzzzzzzz

Like this?

EC AIFS and GFS again are worlds apart…

This is the 4th day of 40+… Been a long time…

I could easily see the 18th split the forum like the 12z GFS advertised… But at least we’re looking at legit big storm potential. The synoptic setup is amped.. 977 over Bangor ME giving a hint at the potent setup. Finally something to track

Legit arctic airmass around 18th. But looks like one of them “west is colder than north” type packages. Slight moderation as it swings East after diving south… Boston warmer than Greenville SC type deals… Could be a big deal in places like Atlanta…

The shit solution on the ICON also opens the door to the 18th. Similar to the 6z GFS. That’s the one to watch.

Batten down the hatches folks. 1-3” incoming.

Bc you believe this will be a significant snowstorm? Let’s hear — what’s your call?

Move to the southeast if you want to call an advisory level threat a major snowstorm. By New England standards - this isn’t even a storm at this stage. It’s weather in January.