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jbenedet

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    NAM is tracking way too cold. Shocker. HRRR even worse. PSM is already 26.
  2. jbenedet
    Eh. Yeaaa. We know how this works for your turf. All caveats apply. Different world.
  3. jbenedet
    Thurs/Friday. Take em up
  4. jbenedet
    This has been rain for SNE for days; if you take off the weenie glasses. Focus on another period. This is just punishment and embarrassing already.
  5. jbenedet
    Sunday has a shot at being nice for late Jan at least. I mean, the reason for any cold anoms at that point is the eroding stale arctic airmass...Atmosphere aloft is warming nicely by Sunday afternoon...
  6. jbenedet
    This weather sucks. Cold and dry is the worst. Awful for the dog. Awful for just doing things, generally, outside of snowboarding/skiing.
  7. jbenedet
    The Tuesday/Wed illusory snow threat is about to disappear on the operationals. UL ridging builds highest over our heads—troughiness in SE Canada/NB, vanishing. Notice the ridge axis progression eastward over time… SNE:
  8. jbenedet
    Eh, north of the wall is where warm fronts go to die - that's around Winne's latitude. That line is very well established climatologically. Yes there are patterns that prove exceptions but that area is rock solid winter; and that's where I'm referencing. Being Dry is their #1 enemy to big snowfall seasons.
  9. jbenedet
    I think the better argument is if the MJO and forecasted teles are wrong.... If they're right and you bake this into the op runs with that general longwave pattern, it's ugly. Very much like that 6z EPS evolution.
  10. jbenedet
    Our "Canadian High" "Eff you Cya"
  11. jbenedet
    Lewiston Maine. Sure. But the op runs with the -NAO look, with snow potential into coastal SNE are just evil. The ops notoriously lag the teleconnection shifts, but this lag is likely especially pronounced given the unusual spike we're seeing in both the NAO and AO indexes. It's a shit pattern that will produce shit, except north of the wall. The GEFS and EPS are much more reliable here, even at 5 days.
  12. jbenedet
    We're moving towards a PAC northwest oriented Jet. Maritime tropical --> Maritime Polar Therefore, the modest increase in the PNA is not a cold-ish look for the CONUS, it's still heavily influenced by the pacific... On balance, it is broadly an AN factor.
  13. jbenedet
    Gonna finish here with about 3”. Mixing and slotting.
  14. jbenedet
    That jump in rates is coming with the 850 mix line. It will rip snow right as it approaches, but not last too long - maybe an hour. That's what happened at all points south. Won't be any different here is my guess.
  15. jbenedet
    That's valid but at max 0.5"/ hr tops. It's flurrying out right now.
  16. jbenedet
    I thought we respect NAM thermals. That mix line is racing north now.
  17. jbenedet
    Expecting to underperform here. Guidance JP not panning out imby. Dry air, and subsidence now, then turns to dry slot and 850 issues. Gonna put a hard cap on this at 3" tops...
  18. jbenedet
    Mood snow. very light. Vis > 1.5 miles. cold. dry. Too much of the latter.. Whatever flake falls counts but it's taking hours to add up. probably 1.5" even though it started around 5 a.m. Now fighting subsidence overhead.
  19. jbenedet
    Good baseline forecast is the part 1 of the Jan noreaster. Thump 2-4", warm-up/ "dry slot", end.
  20. jbenedet
    The warm/NW trend likely isn't done, based on the UL jet position. But tricky forecast seeing how far out ahead the precip moves in, before the warming at 850, and below.
  21. jbenedet
    The precip will outrun the mid level warming, so that's likely the big help (differentiator), accums wise..
  22. jbenedet
    The 250 mb jet is really far north on the Euro/GFS. The winter storm that had the 850 Mb low cut across SE MA and Boston, and ptype issues thorughout, the jet was like 150 miles southeast of this position...
  23. jbenedet
    I got no horse in this race, but this trend is a PITA for BOX. Probably why they are gun shy. At least this is why I would be... Doesn't help either with how cold biased the GFS has been up until go time...
  24. jbenedet
    MJO progression slows dramatically as we head into phase 6, which is our warmest phase for Jan/Feb.
  25. jbenedet
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