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jbenedet

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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    Can one of the mods put a weenie tag next to the title of this thread?
  2. jbenedet
    The GEFS and EPS are still an open wave frontal boundary evolution. The very early mid level cut off over the southeast is just a potent meso vort traversing the boundary. It doesn’t allow for a bend back or strengthening of the already diffuse BZ… So on top of all the limitations—you’re not gonna get the mid level magic out of this either.
  3. jbenedet
    That’s where I’m at right now.
  4. jbenedet
    I need to see another model blow up H5 like that over the southeast before I bite.
  5. jbenedet
    But that looks like the other guidance. Kinda saying the same thing, just differently.
  6. jbenedet
    The 12z GEFS looks much more like the other guidance than the 12z op GFS..
  7. jbenedet
    Let’s see how they do right after a big pattern shift… Will they need some “re-learning”?
  8. jbenedet
    +NAO incoming and longest duration since first week of October per the GEFS. Clearly a big regime change underway… Shake the persistence lens if you haven’t already….
  9. jbenedet
    SNE talking about black ice like they live in DC. Exciting times.
  10. jbenedet
    38/29 at 8:30 am. And the black ice throughout downtown is finally gone. perfect for the morning dog walk.finally. rejoice.
  11. jbenedet
    PSM hit 49 last night. Gotta be the warmest temp in 3 weeks. Maybe a month…
  12. jbenedet
    At least the GFS lost its “congrats OBX” BS for the 16th. It’s now rightly back in line with all other major guidance. So how this will evolve is a lot clearer than earlier today…
  13. jbenedet
    15th/16th—That GFS run is very -NAO ish I don’t buy this evolution. Looks like a step further away from reality. The NAO forecast had another stepwise increase well into positive territory before our players are on the field..
  14. jbenedet
    Ugh. That’s so wound up it’s gonna interfere with the follow up wave… That one I like for the better long wave placement… But that’s another potential issue gotta watch now…
  15. jbenedet
    Yea these winter days are good. So important. Today’s got a great vibe 37/31
  16. jbenedet
    Good point. To be sure I’m thinking most commonly 43-45 readings, for the region. a solid +10 today Dews will also be rising all day so it will compound the real feel. Legit warmth on this merit as well… Gotta get outside…
  17. jbenedet
    Agreed on the sun. But atmosphere is cooked just above the surface.
  18. jbenedet
    NAM laughably too cold for surface temps today… These clouds are breaking… widespread mid 40’s easy and 50 within reach at many spots in SNE.
  19. jbenedet
    I’m just talking widespread warning level snow. Thats what my odds are against. …
  20. jbenedet
    predictions made with present data. Not making predictions based on the data changing…no evidence for that. Always the case. But looking at the large scale features and the agreement on them across important guidance at this stage…. It’s very low odds of a big snowstorm. My take.
  21. jbenedet
    Looking at 6z EC AIFS - I don’t like it…. The early mid level cut-off in northern stream is another red flag. You’re going to get much more shunting east with the coastal than meridional mid level ridge development can compensate for over the western Atlantic. Maybe a cape scrape? I’m focusing on the 18th…
  22. jbenedet
    There’s red flags with that euro run. Mid levels look juicy but beneath you can see the BZ is not at all where we want it. we’re actually between two zones, one indicating it’s taking the surface reflection well ots whereas the other well to our west and indicating warm sector/ptype issues. I’m maintaining I do not like this one at all. It’s a lot further from where it needs to be for a significant snowstorm than the 6z euro mid level depiction is reflecting.
  23. jbenedet
    On the 15th The GEFS evolution matches the EC-AIFS now. it’s ugly. Mostly northern stream. Not wanting to synch with southern stream… Sell a nor Easter
  24. jbenedet
    46/32 Great to finally get the ice off the driveway. Some 2 weeks of this…
  25. jbenedet
    We have not had one fun storm to track… Just hella cold. Need I mentions the other “benefits” of this crap Pattern— Heating bills up ice melt use up slips trips falls up doggy depression up boredom up
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