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jbenedet

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Everything posted by jbenedet

  1. jbenedet
    2-4” is a good bet in eastern sections, regionally. More in east MA where I’d go 3-6” With -NAO and strong mid level vort never discount these little events. They surprise I’d get it if BL temps were marginal but it’s Alaska out there…
  2. jbenedet
    Yea there’s also a developing inverted trough signature on the latest nam. Eastern MA, NH and Maine focused..
  3. jbenedet
    There’s beneath the radar snow falling again now. Albeit light. Steady flurry intensity but subtly increasing.
  4. jbenedet
    There’s 850mb and 700mb frontogenesis forcing swinging through NY state.
  5. jbenedet
    Yea I’m not on the “looks like crap” wagon with this. the mid level vort moving through is intense and seeing the filling in, broadly out west looks like the expansiveness and intensity will exceed some of the latest guidance. Looks like new Jersey to Maine
  6. jbenedet
    Funny you said that. I was just thinking. yea I think this one will do it.
  7. jbenedet
    Yea I was just out snow blowing. It’s incredible out. Easily near 20”. Wind is ripping too. Amazing storm.
  8. jbenedet
    We girth
  9. jbenedet
    Yea? Where?
  10. jbenedet
    Yea but what I’m saying tomorrow is a different vibe. It’s not SWFE.
  11. jbenedet
    Hmmmm?
  12. jbenedet
    Portsmouth NH: 1:55 pm obs 8/3 Heavy snow Welcome to Fairbanks Alaska. Frickin” wicked Awesome.
  13. jbenedet
    Where in Jersey?
  14. jbenedet
    We tried to tell em
  15. jbenedet
    That kink in the isobars starting from ~ORH that can be see through Virginia is a signature of significant cold air damming for the mid Atlantic region.
  16. jbenedet
    Guys gotta pull out the classic cold Damming setups to see how this will play out. The apps really enhance the push and depth of the cold; it will never get resolved by guidance. At a minimum expect the surface freezing line to remain ~25 miles further south/east than progged. That’s your easy bet.
  17. jbenedet
    Those numbers still seem low by you guys given the duration of this. buried.
  18. jbenedet
    It’s going to be difficult to overestimate the totals around Boston. It snows most of the day tomorrow. 24” is a floor.
  19. jbenedet
    The big surprise will be the -NAO look that this thing develops late tomorrow morning as it moves inside the benchmark, slowing down and throwing CCB back from north central Jersey to throughout New England. We will all be waking up to a storm in its 6th/7th inning.
  20. jbenedet
    NYC metro has biggest upside potential. The surface high position/intensity and antecedent is pretty well perfect. It’s one of the rare times to bet against the “warming 925 - 800 into go time”
  21. jbenedet
    I’ve been saying a NYC and Boston jackpots. both have meso enhancements from a stationary coastal front and no mixing… In the case of NYC, it’s on the line of current guidance but I think it sticks with 90%+ snow. That’s a solid endorsement now by the GEFS.
  22. jbenedet
    I think the pre and post storm severe cold is what’s making it a bigger deal than usual around here That’s what’s on my mind anyway.
  23. jbenedet
    Funny you sent this. I’m headed there in like 15 min to pick up some of my buddy’s favorites.
  24. jbenedet
    I’d say at this stage put 12” in your head.
  25. jbenedet
    I could easily see this evolving to include a NYC metro jackpot. Makes sense. So overdue. And with how cold this winter has been it’s the year shit can’t break wrong last minute. You can stack it even more considering the calendar and peak climo.
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