jbenedet
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Everything posted by jbenedet
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Good luck. Warm sector EPS and GEFS are signaling very warm during that period. especially along the coastal plain.
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We did not have a stretch of significant warmth like this in March through early April that I can recall. 1-2 days sure, but not a 3 + day torch with continued AN after. Really nice. Local tree company agrees. Called to verify schedule cutting down a tree growing too close to my garage foundation on Tuesday….
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Looking at guidance today, seeing I do have a chance to get some sun. Would be a big win after this shit stretch, especially on a Saturday… Expectations low given the climo fuckery…I’ll call it a win if I can eke out mostly cloudy by 2 pm.
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It’s incredible how many times the more densely populated areas in the coastal plain narrowly dodge this bullet. It’s like at least a few times a season. We’re gonna get nailed one of these years very soon.
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The teleconnection phase state NAO, PNA are completely different than this time last year. I know that’s with the caveat that the teles have less influence on the Synoptics this time of year but it’s an influence and a warm one for a change… Away from the immediate coast I still think we can see a really nice March and April relative to climo and especially relative to recent years past.
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That 0.7 makes all the difference. Walking Dog last night in downtown Dover that was basically the difference between business as usual and accidents all over the place. We had patches of black ice but largely very isolated, untraveled surfaces.
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ORH?
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We’ve skated by so many big ice storm opportunities over past 10 years; just goes to show how rare these events are…
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Predicting significant ice is for fools. I’m one of em. Seems like only areas to receive signicsnt freezing rain is in central Ma. Low level cold underperformed, 950 to 850 warmth overperformed. Even had mostly sleet up here, with poor rates throughout. Not much out there, maybe an inch. At least this largely verified in my book; not the sleet but the paltry qpf.
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Tech gave us advanced drones. Drone defense systems are way behind.
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Wolfie eats squirrels, Dendrite likes the smell of skunks… I’m afraid to hear from the rest… what a crew.
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It’s been too cold for big ice… This event is different.
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Airmasses have been cold and overperforming but it hasn’t been a year of cold tucks. That’s my point. I’m almost all snow this year. Much different than prior years.
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It’s been a year of CP overhead. Not cold tucks. Not in my hood anyway.
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You have the low level CAD drain that we’ve been missing pretty much all season… Key prerequisite to getting beyond that 0.2” to quick melt nuisance variety
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Guidance looks way too warm at the surface today. No idea how temps rise much from here with north winds already being felt down to Hartford and clouds thickening up…
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Classic cold tuck. This season? Gonna be freezing down to NYC metro
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A lot of that “rain” on guidance SoP, I think in actuality will be freezing rain. To me, it’s a classic case of take the under on surface temps and the over on 950 mb -850 mb warm layer. I certainly wouldn’t be taking the guidance verbatim at the surface with how cold this year has been north of the boundary…
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I mean this is a very classic ice storm look for SNE, south of pike.
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This looks like a signiicant icing event south of pike with potential all the way down to 95. Needless to say, glad I’m largely missing this one to the north…
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Pretty well summarize what I’ve been saying in that the northern jet which has been comfortably south of our region all winter now has a mean position right over our hood. It’s mid wintet north of it and mid spring south of it. Yesterday and today a perfect juxtaposition especially with no big storms and associated fronts, before, during or after….
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If sunshine is maximized with no clouds —as it is today—it does a lot of damage to the pack.
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Ole’ man winter letting us out with the seasonal change. A steady and subtle progression. Just keep ticking lines of latitude north on that northern jet with the ISR increasing and we’re good to welcome real spring earlier than in recent years.
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In the middle of a snow hole. Just flurries right now. The bigly scattered precip materialized up here as I expected but the look just to my south along Ma/NH border is more impressive than thought would be… Looking further upstream in VT and upstate NY—it will continue here as scattered and light. Not expecting more than an inch here
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Gonna be a brutal early spring for the immediate shore folks with near normal SST’s to start. GWDLT
