jbenedet

Now send some pictures of geese and the pope.

Say the same thing over and over and over. It wasn’t funny 3 years ago.

Lol. A day of 30’s in late November. You showed him, alright!

Another day on the motorcycle. A break next week and then she’s back out the week after. Noice.

That 6z GFS run is what you get with an sig -NAO. And the MJO phase 8/1 None of it fits big picture. MJO phase 1/2, will permit UL ridging in the east. And the forecasted NAO is strongly positive before this system arrives, the Canadian high in the east will be exiting stage right instead of anchored Rope-a-dope run.

yea. I took my motorcycle into work this morning. Sweet deal. It's still, any semblance of AN in the atmosphere and it's lift off. Conversely, it takes the stars to align for us to get sig BN. Hedge accordingly.

Tomorrow looks beautiful - low 60's. The cold behind the front looks like it takes us back to Normal. Saturday maybe very slightly BN, and Sunday back above.

yea. We're headed to phase 8 ->1. That cold is legit and is dumping into Central plains, but I believe it's going to moderate a lot as it heads east at our latitude.

The subsequent cold shots (after turkey day) are also going to dampen out as they dump into the plains and then moderate as they head east to our region. Normal at worst.

Big GL Cutter. We knew. Warm sector easily up to Winne. +NAO with deepest surface cold over the upper midwest. Nothing stopping a bend back into central ontario

Not an STC? https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=subregional-E_Gulf_Coast-01-24-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

Weird seeing lemons and cherries for theoretical points of interest and nothing for where the observations continue to be most indicative of tropical development in the north central GOM. I get the guidance has been pessimistic on development of this feature since it’s inception, but that’s also why it’s just “guidance”.

Just realized we’ve had a -NAO regime since 9/10! And it looks like this streak breaks right around —you guessed it—December 1st!

Too early for snow but not too late for something Tropical. Yea there’s nothing “tropical” about the weather in Texas right now, but that’s not where the storm is developing. The area of interest is 300 miles south in the Bay of Campeche.

Cursory look at vis satellite—looks like a TD in the Bay of Campeche at sunrise this morning.

I dunno…Experience is the forecasted teles can have large error bars (hidden) at inflection points. I believe this is one. The MJO is transitioning from 7 to 8 to (likely) 1 over this time frame, and there’s been a lot of potential energy in an ENSO that hasn’t flexed in CONUS weather patterns (yet). I believe the latter is about to show up with a bang. Strongly hedge in favor of amped and active.

Sub tropical system for the Texas coast late Sunday into Monday. Likely not officially recognized as such but the guidance clearly shows those features.

I’ll let you guys conjecture on months out. I just don’t believe there’s enough skill to postulate. There’s a sig El Niño on top of a warming local climate, and ++ SST anomalies in the GOM and Gulf of St Lawrence. Thats all happening now. No future tense here. I think our best chance will be very late season after the snowpack in south central Canada sets the stage for some sig cold to offset these factors. That’s a back of the envelope guess. Obviously. 5 minutes worth of thought, so it ain’t worth shit. But again, if I had to guess.

A shame the day 5 trough is hell-bent to pick up the TD in the Caribbean. Should that miss it would be in prime position for the subsequent trough around day 9 to make a close pass to our region. Would make for some very fascinating weather to track; break the boredom.

Eh. This airmass is legit “cold” for the season. It’s just transient and poorly timed for snow-lovers. Big cutter day 10. Congrats Illinois/Michigan. Let’s get used to this. It will ease the pain later.

Just a passing observation but this upcoming significant storm in Texas this weekend looks like the first vestiges of a high end moderate El Niño flexing in the CONUS. Delayed but not denied. It’s not different this time. The early cold anomalies in the northeast is a headfake for those who live in that region. CPC has it right.

Very boring outside of what could develop south of Cuba around 3/4. Feeble signal but it’s there, subtly, nonetheless on EPS and GEFS.

Kinda surprised by lack of interest with Phillip remnants. I think Lee hugely disappointed and is resulting in some recency bias to the downside. Also over confidence on final outcome. Looks like it’s gonna rock for a bit when it comes in. It’s a very low bar but I’m expecting a lot more interesting weather than with Lee. Only worth mentioning because of how much stronger Lee was at this lat/long. Today’s earlier transition to extra tropical opens up a closer approach than guidance consensus and a stronger system at our latitude, given the sig UL trough dynamics. It also means toss the 18z GFS very far. Worst weather looks close to Portland Maine. Wouldn’t rule out a shot at sub 980 upon closest approach. Send the weenie tags.

It’s that or it redeveloped LLC further south/west under the deep convection.

yea I agree this window is interesting. But I’m seeing more tropical than stc interest this time. For one you can see it in the short term forecasts—weather in Easter CONUS more akin to late summer than early fall. Dews and 80’s are back; the tapestry has shifted to summer. Currently very low odds, but a few members of the GEFS show Phillipe with a much later recurve and interacting with the deep CONUS trough later week. Phillip is currently far south and weak enough to miss the early recurve altogether, and continue along the easterlies.